As the Chargers and 49ers get ready to match up on Sunday Night Football, bettors are preparing for a fantastic NFL game.
But, handicapping the 49ers has become more challenging with injuries to the wide receiver corps. Luckily, that opens up some interesting opportunities in the player props market.
If you’re looking for different ways to bet on NFL player props, I’d recommend PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including ones where online betting remains unavailable.
Let’s dive into my Sunday Night Football PrizePicks card.
Austin Ekeler
Over/Under 23 Fantasy Score
The Chargers offense has been mercurial this season. The receiver room is banged up, Justin Herbert gets overwhelmed easily and people are starting to question Brandon Staley’s decision making.
The offense has slid to 20th in DVOA and 18th in EPA per play.
However, Austin Ekeler is inevitable.
Ekeler is over 800 scrimmage yards on the season and is on pace for 120 receptions. He’s been targeted 47 times over the past five games and has scored 10 touchdowns. He doesn’t always get the rushing yards, but he averages over 5.2 YPC when the Chargers do elect to run.
Austin Ekeler in his last five games:
⚡️ 347 rushing yards
⚡️ 233 receiving yards
⚡️ 10 total touchdowns pic.twitter.com/lLyl7ZFuSu— PFF (@PFF) November 6, 2022
Ekeler is the Chargers offense. He gets every touch, nearly doubling the usage of every other player.
Ekeler will get the volume needed to crush this fantasy score number. Given the efficiency he’s been playing with recently, he should have no issue producing enough yards and touchdowns to crush this line.
Our projections are high on Ekeler, too. The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him to go over his receiving yards total, rushing yards total and receptions total.
Ekeler is an easy buy for me.
Pick: Over 23 Fantasy Score
Justin Herbert
Over/Under 260.5 Pass Yards
As mentioned, this offense has been struggling.
Part of that is on Justin Herbert.
Herbert ranks 22nd among qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite since Week 5 and has a Pro Football Reference Quarterback Rating under 80. He’s completing a good amount of his passes, but his efficiency has fallen off a cliff. For example, Herbert’s aDOT has dropped to just 5.5 yards over the past four weeks and his YPA is just 5.4.
As a result, Herbert has fallen under this line in three of the past four games.
Part of the reason for this regression is he’s constantly dumping the ball to Ekeler. However, the other factor is the health of the receivers.
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are out for the second consecutive week, severely handicapping the Chargers’ passing game and Herbert’s ability to put up numbers. The two were out last week and Herbert couldn’t crack 250 passing yards against the Falcons’ league-worst pass defense.
Now, Herbert has to face San Francisco’s top-tier, hard-nosed defense. The 49ers have allowed the NFL’s sixth-fewest passing yards, rank ninth in pass EPA per play allowed and are sixth in PFF’s coverage grades.
San Francisco’s defense has held 22 of the past 27 opposing quarterbacks under their passing yards total, including limiting Matthew Stafford to just 187 passing yards last week.
Herbert should struggle once again this week and stay under this PrizePicks number.
Pick: Under 260.5 Pass Yards
