Christian McCaffrey gets his first taste of primetime at Levi's Stadium this Sunday as the San Francisco 49ers welcome the injured Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10.
The 49ers enter as 7.5-point favorites and enter off a bye. After losing four straight, they bounced back two weeks ago with a dominant 31-14 win over the Rams. The Chargers, meanwhile, have won four of their last five and took down Atlanta last week on a game-winning field goal as time expired.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football:
Austin Ekeler
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
In what is expected to be a negative game script, Justin Herbert’s safety valve will be used early and often.
The Chargers will enter another week without their duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in a game where Ekeler should see a heavy workload once again. Last week, he hauled in seven receptions for just 24 yards.
It was his third straight week of being targeted eight or more times, and Ekeler has gone over this 40.5 number in five of eight games this season. In all three Chargers losses, he has 48+ receiving yards.
Los Angeles’ offensive line has been banged up, and Trey Pipkins is now out. Herbert should see plenty of traffic all night from a healthier 49ers defense which should result in constant checkdowns to Ekeler.
The Chargers will also struggle to find success on the ground. San Francisco’s rush defense is seventh, per PFF, and should force a pass-heavy game script.
This number is too low for Ekeler, who is one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. He should see near double-digit receptions once again, and I expect him to breeze by this number on Sunday night.
Under 45.5
In a game where San Francisco is favored by over a touchdown, I expect a run-heavy game script from Kyle Shanahan. Elijah Mitchell returns from injury and joins a talented backfield alongside McCaffrey.
The Chargers rush defense is also a weak spot. They are 29th in DVOA against the run, which doesn’t match up well against a 49ers team that thrives in the trenches. McCaffrey has also dominated in his two games with SF on the ground, rushing 26 times for 132 yards (5.1 YPC).
San Francisco has also gone under this number in five of its last seven games. Their defense is also receiving a major boost with Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair returning.
As mentioned earlier, Herbert will be without two of his top three weapons. The losses of Allen and Williams should translate to offensive struggles for the Chargers, who barely squeaked by Atlanta last week.
Primetime unders are a trend that continues to thrive. In a game where San Francisco should control possession and find success on the ground, I believe this number is too low.
Brandon Aiyuk
Under 50.5 Receiving Yards
Following the narrative of a run-heavy game script out of San Francisco in a healthy win, fading Brandon Aiyuk is the perfect way to round out the same-game parlay.
Deebo Samuel returns from injury and adds another mouth to feed in a talented offense. My colleague Sean Koerner broke down the prop as well, projecting Aiyuk closer to 47.5 receiving yards with more paths to finish closer to his floor.
The 49ers are getting healthy at the right time with both Samuel and Mitchell returning. George Kittle and McCaffrey are two added threats in the passing game as well, so in a game where I expect SF to shy away from the pass, Aiyuk’s targets should be limited.
As Koerner pointed out, the Chargers rank 10th in DVOA against the pass and 29th against the run. The 49ers should have their way on the ground and build a double-digit lead by the fourth quarter.
Aiyuk has gone over this number in four straight, but I expect him to lay a dud in a game where I not only expect an under, but also a game script that is not favorable for the 24-year-old.
The Parlay (+580)
- Austin Ekeler o40.5 Receiving Yards
- Under 45.5
- Brandon Aiyuk u50.5 Receiving Yards
