I've found my NFL player prop for Sunday Night Football tonight.
For Chargers vs. Bengals, I'm fading Cincinnati safety Geno Stone's tackles prop. Let's get into my NFL prop for tonight.
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Geno Stone Player Prop
I faded Stone’s tackle prop a few weeks ago against the Ravens and noted how he was playing deep at a higher rate, with a Vonn Bell/Jordan Battle splitting time lined up in the box. That trend has continued, and it’s led to a dip in Stone’s tackle rate.
Stone has had a very good schedule for a safety in terms of tackle opportunities. I estimate he’s seen a schedule that offers a +7% boost in tackle rate. This will be his toughest matchup to rack up tackles to date, though, as the Chargers have provided the fewest tackle opportunities to the safety position.
Another interesting angle here is that the Bengals have only trailed on 25% of their snaps this season. As a onepoint road 'dog here, I project them to trail for ~42% of their snaps
Stone has seen a significant drop in tackle rate when the Bengals are trailing. Here's his tackle rate based on score differential:
- Tied: 8.5% (tackles per snaps)
- Leading: 8.5%
- Trailing: 4.2%
Stone has benefited from Cincinnati not trailing as much as it (potentially) will tonight. Again, it doesn’t mean that the Bengals will even trail at any point tonight, but this potential angle only helps his chances of staying under 4.5.
My fair price for Under 5.5 Tackles + assists is -250, and my fair price for Under 4.5 is -150. I'm projecting Stone for closer to 4.1 with around a 60% chance to stay under and love the idea of a plus-money number there.
