Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc. — they all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have Chargers vs. Broncos parlay picks for tonight.
Chargers vs. Broncos Parlay
- Over 42.0 (-110)
- Broncos +2.5 (-105)
- Gus Edwards Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Stone Smartt Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Full Chargers vs. Broncos Parlay Odds: +1400 | $10 Bet Wins $140
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the complex correlations among the legs. However, parlays are fun. Much like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which has already hit twice this season, we're looking for bigger payouts.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Thursday Night Football parlay for Week 16 on DraftKings.
Over 42.0 (-110)
Bo Nix and the Broncos offense have hit their stride over the past four weeks. Denver has won four straight, scoring at least 29 points in each of those contests. Now, the Broncos are facing a Chargers defense that started the year well but has allowed over 25 points per game over the past four weeks.
The Chargers also have four defensive starters listed as questionable, with three of those logging back-to-back DNPs to start the week. All three are probably on the pessimistic side of questionable.
That's the case for the Broncos offense — and they're the underdogs. At a minimum, they should be able to do enough to force the Chargers to stay aggressive. Since losing J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers have been playing more through the pass, and finding success through rookie receiver Ladd McConkey.
The tough Broncos defense is a bit of a concern, but they gave up 32 points to the Raiders two weeks ago. Additionally, while they officially only allowed 13 points last week, it would've been 20 had Jonathan Taylor not dropped the ball before crossing the goal line.
Both teams should be able to get to the 20-point mark, which would effectively lock in the over — barring a tie.
Broncos +2.5 (-105)
As you probably picked up on above, I'm fairly optimistic about the Broncos chances given both their recent form and the Chargers injuries.
The Broncos are a game ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West, despite ranking far lower in our Luck Rankings coming into the week.
That means the actual gap between the records of these teams should be larger than it is since those rankings consider how teams have done compared to how they should've finished.
This game is in Los Angeles, but that typically hasn't been a big home-field advantage. Denver has made huge strides since losing to the Chargers at home earlier in the season, just as we'd expect with a rookie quarterback.
Gus Edwards Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The top props in our Props Tool this week include overs on both Gus Edwards' yards and attempts line, with a fairly wide edge on both. Edwards was held to just eight carries for 23 yards last week against the Bucs, but Tampa is a significant pass-funnel defense, and the Chargers had a negative game script throughout most of the contest.
Denver is a bit easier to attack on the ground than through the air, and even though we're banking on Denver covering, odds are this one at least stays fairly close throughout.
In two close games prior to last week, Edwards combined for 16 carries for 68 yards, keeping him roughly in line with both his yardage and attempts props here.
More importantly, since we're on the Broncos spread, we're getting a massive odds boost by including positive rushing props for the Chargers, with the yardage prop bringing the mark to +675.
Our projected line for his yardage sits at 47.0.
Stone Smartt Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The other two props projecting well are both unders on Stone Smartt, who filled in for the injured Will Dissly last week against the Bucs, catching five of six targets for 50 yards.
However, the negative game script that limited Edwards' production also boosted the passing offense. I wouldn't expect Smartt to see another six targets if this one stays close.
Additionally, that production came against the team that's allowed the second-most yards to tight ends this season. This week, they're facing a Broncos unit that ranks 23rd in tight end yards allowed, despite facing Brock Bowers twice and Travis Kelce once this season.
Smartt is obviously no Kelce or Bowers, so it's a good time to fade him following his breakout performance. Especially considering the Chargers have designated Hayden Hurst to return from IR this week.
There's no guarantee Hurst is active for the game, but he got a full practice in on Tuesday. Odds are he cuts into the workload for Smartt if he plays.
Full Chargers vs. Broncos Parlay Odds: +1400| $10 Bet Wins $140
