Chargers at Broncos Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Chargers -3
- Over/Under: 38.5
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Friday afternoon.
The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the biggest disappointments while the Denver Broncos, are enduring a nightmare season and are coming off a blowout loss to the Bills.
Our experts preview this AFC West matchup from a betting perspective, complete with an analysis of the biggest mismatch and more.
Chargers-Broncos Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Chargers
The Chargers are healthy coming off the bye with everyone either practicing in full or a limited basis so far this week. Offensive linemen Russell Okung (groin) and Sam Tevi (knee) are probably the main injuries to watch in the interior since they both didn’t play in Week 11.
The Broncos have key injuries on the defensive side in linebackers Von Miller (knee) and Alexander Johnson (knee). Both haven’t practiced, which wouldn’t be ideal since Johnson grades out as Denver’s best defender and Miller checks in as No. 5, per PFF. Miller leads the team in quarterback pressures, sacks, hits and hurries by a substantial amount. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Phillip Lindsay vs. Chargers Run Defense
The Chargers' run defense has been among the NFL’s worst all season. They currently ranks 27th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, and since Week 3 have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in every game except Green Bay. Los Angeles allowed rushing scores to both Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy of Kansas City last week.
When these two teams met in Week 5, Lindsay dominated the Chargers on the ground at a clip of 7.6 yards per carry. He totaled 147 yards and a touchdown in Denver’s 20-13 road upset.
Expect a heavy dose of Lindsay because of the shaky quarterback situation in Denver. Whether Brandon Allen or rookie Drew Lock gets the call for the Broncos, opposing signal-callers have not fared well against the Chargers. Only Deshaun Watson (Week 3) has produced a top-12 fantasy performance against Los Angeles, with safety Derwin James scheduled to see his first action since being placed on injured reserve to start the season.
Lindsay’s volume has increased after re-assuming the lead running back role two weeks again and has logged over a 63% snap share in both games.
Lindsay represents a tough mismatch for a Chargers defense traveling to Mile High Stadium. Los Angeles simply cannot afford a repeat performance from Week 5 if they hope to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Chargers -2.5
- Projected Total: 39.5
PRO System Match
The Broncos have lost four of their past five games including a 20-3 drubbing to the Bills in Week 12. Brandon Allen has started the last three games completing less than 50% of his passes and earning a quarterback rating of 68.3. The public has had enough of Denver.
The Broncos are 3-point underdogs at home and fewer than 20% of spread tickets are on Denver (see live public betting data here). It's easy to understand why casual bettors would fade the Broncos but now is a bad time to jump off the bandwagon.
Historically, it has been profitable to bet teams getting little public support after a bad offensive game. Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 150-95-4 (61.2%) against the spread since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,606 following this strategy.
A reverse line movement bet signal has been triggered on the Broncos, an indication that sharps are backing Denver. — John Ewing
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Expert Pick
Our staff doesn't see value on this game right now, but that could change as lines move, so download our app to follow specific experts and action around this game.
