The Sunday NFL Week 14 slate concludes with our Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions and Sunday Night Football props and best bets. SNF is scheduled to kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium; the game will be broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
The Chargers and Chiefs are set to meet for the second this season. Kansas City won the first game back in Week 4 by the score of 17-10. The Chargers have gone 6-2 since that defeat while the Chiefs have lost just once this season.
Among our Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions for Sunday Night Football: picks for the spread and over/under, plus a Justin Herbert player prop.
Chargers vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks, Props, Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chargers vs Chiefs Odds for Sunday Night Football
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 43 -115o / -105u | +205 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 43 -115o / -105u | -250 |
- Chargers vs Chiefs Moneyline: Chargers +205, Chiefs -250
- Chargers vs Chiefs Spread: Chargers +4.5 (-105), Chiefs -4.5 (-115)
- Chargers vs Chiefs Over/Under: 43 (-115o / -105u)
Chargers vs Chiefs Against the Spread Pick
By John LanFranca
When looking at advanced metrics, these teams are more similar than the four-point spread in favor of the Chiefs might indicate.
Sure, the Chiefs are playing at Arrowhead stadium, but that has not stopped teams from covering the number in what is perceived as one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL.
Road underdogs are 28-22 (56%) against the Chiefs at Arrowhead — even with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. More recently, over the last three seasons, betting every road 'dog in Kansas City has resulted in a 61.9% cover rate over 21 games.
Over the past seven weeks, the turmoil at left tackle has caused major problems for the Chiefs offense — they have averaged just 4.9 yards per play, ranking 27th league-wide over that span. Fewer than 5% of their offensive plays during that time have generated a gain of 20 or more yards.
The Chiefs have a very difficult time winning with margin given the current formula they use to win games.
Even when the Chiefs are leading, they fail time and time again to put teams away due to the conservative nature of the play-calling late in games. I don't expect the Chiefs to score easily against this Chargers defense, but even if Kansas City jumps out to an early lead, a Justin Herbert comeback is a more than reasonable path to a Los Angeles cover.
The Chargers defense is the sixth in the league, according to DVOA, but even more impressively, they have allowed the fewest points per drive in the NFL when they are on the road.
Only one of the last seven meetings between the Chiefs and Chargers have been decided by more than one score, with four of the last six meetings decided in overtime or by fewer than four points.
With a low total sitting below the key number of 44, points will be at a premium Sunday night. I am more than happy to continue taking the points against a Chiefs team that has made a living out of winning closely contested games.
Pick: Chargers +4.5 (-105); bet to +4
Chargers vs Chiefs Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
The upstart Chargers are taking on the Chiefs this week in a rematch of a Week 4 contest that saw just 27 points scored.
In the interim, the Chargers offense has come alive, shifting far more pass heavy and attacking down field through Justin Herbert and his duo of young wide receivers. The Chargers now rank 18th in points per game at 21.8, after a slow start to the season.
However, this is a tough matchup for both offenses. The Chargers have the league’s best defense in terms of points per game allowed, with Kansas City ranking eighth.
Kansas City is a home favorite here, but I have serious concerns about their offensive line. They allowed five sacks in each of the last two games, despite facing the Panthers and the Raiders. Now they draw a much tougher assignment against the Chargers.
Without the Chiefs driving the scoring, it’s hard to see this one resulting in much offense, so I’ll take the under 43 at -110 at Caesars and BetMGM, as of Sunday morning. The low-juice 42.5s available elsewhere are fine, but I wouldn’t go past that here.
Pick: Under 43 (-110)
Justin Herbert Player Props
By Brit Devine
Justin Herbert has just one interception this season, and the Chiefs defense has only recorded six.
The Chiefs defense that was dominating at the start of the season is regressing right now and only has one interception in its last six games. It looks like Herbert should be able to operate with a clean pocket as the Chiefs pass rush has struggled of late. I'm expecting him to avoid turning the ball over in this game.
I would only play this to -130.
Pick: Justin Herbert Under 0.5 Interceptions (-130)
