Thursday Night Football will feature a different feel this season. It’ll be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video, with Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit calling the action.
However, the football on the field will remain the same. Chiefs vs. Chargers is going to be a treat, as two of the most electric quarterbacks and overall offenses in the league face off.
However, Thursday Night Football games with a high totals tend to stay under and these two offenses are likely a little inflated in the market.
So, I’m targeting two player prop unders on PrizePicks, which allows me to parlay NFL props legally with real cash in 27 states.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Under 16.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs offense ate last weekend. Edwards-Helaire got in on the action and picked up a whopping 32 receiving yards on three receptions.
However, I don’t think he will replicate that level of production and here are my three reasons why.
First, projections are low on Edwards-Helaire. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him for just 13.5 receiving yards on Thursday Night, giving us value on this prop at PrizePicks – or on betting the under 15.5 currently available across the market.
Second, the Chargers don’t like to give up the flats. Brandon Staley’s defense allowed the fifth-fewest pass attempts (5.4) and the third-fewest receiving yards (27.9) per game to running backs last season. Edwards-Helaire snagged just two receptions, for a combined 27 yards, in two games against the Chargers last season.
Finally, Edwards-Helaire has not historically been a pass-catching back. He’s managed to cash this prop number in 12 of his 28 games with Kansas City, including just three of his last 12.
I’ll take him to stay under one more time.
Austin Ekeler
Under 13 Rush Attempts
Our projections have Ekeler right at 13 rush attempts. However, I’m fine with fading this prophere.
Ekeler has hit this number just once in his past seven games against Kansas City. Plenty of games between the Chiefs and Chargers end up as shootouts, and that means Justin Herbert has to throw the ball instead of handing it off.
Outside of that, Ekeler has only reached this mark in seven of his past 16 games. Plus, he now has to fight for carries with Sony Michel also in the backfield.
Also, without Keenan Allen (hamstring), perhaps Ekeler will need to be used more in the passing game.
Again, I’m fine with fading this Ekeler prop in this spot.
