After hitting on the Jameis Winston/Jaleel McLaughlin/Jerry Jeudy Triple Crown for 34-1 Monday Night and then Jared Goff/Josh Jacobs/Christian Watson on Thursday night at 42-1, I'm looking to keep it going with another one here for Sunday Night Football.
I'm probably not going to maintain a 100% win rate on these, but this has been a fun market to look into and sweat. If you don’t have access to this specific site/prop, here's a reminder that most sites offer most passing/rushing/receiving yards markets individually and some do let you parlay some of them, so you can still usually get pieces of this at other books.
For now, this is under the "Popular" tab for Chargers vs. Chiefs tonight at FanDuel.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Props: Sunday Night Football Leaders Bet
Pick: FanDuel Triple Crown — Justin Herbert, Isiah Pacheco, Quentin Johnston
Pass Yards: Justin Herbert
Most books have Patrick Mahomes with around 10-15 more passing yards than Justin Herbert, but I think this is a sneaky spot to back Herbert here.
The Chargers have trailed 22% of the time this season, but they're expected to trail around 47% of this game as four-point road dogs, which is a massive +25% difference. That means we should expect the Chargers offense to be more pass-heavy than usual.
Plus, the Chiefs have a solid run defense and I don’t expect the Chargers to be too effective with their running game without J.K. Dobbins.
Rushing Yards: Isiah Pacheco
Isiah Pacheco was eased back into action last week but broke off a long run and ended with seven carries for 44 yards on the ground. His playing time and usage should only go up this week and with the Chargers RB situation being very murky, I like Pacheco to lead the game in rushing.
The ultra-sneaky angle here would be to take Herbert to lead the game in rushing yards. If Pacheco gets held in check, it would open the door for someone like Herbert to take down this market. He’s going to have to drop back a ton tonight if the Chargers are trailing, which provides more scramble opportunities. He did run for 65 yards in Week 11 against the Bengals.
You can get real creative with some Triple Crown builds with Herbert for rushing yards. I think Mahomes/Herbert/DeAndre Hopkins +8500 is also likely offering some value.
Receiving Yards: Quentin Johnston
This is where I’m going to go with the upside/long-shot play.
Quentin Johnston has had a rough two-week stretch, totaling just 2/12/0 over that span. He’s not a player I would want to take over his regular prop as I think he has a wide range of outcomes, but he does have the upside to end up with the most receiving yards in this game.
Johnston went for 6/123/0 just a few weeks ago, highlighting his high ceiling. Also, Ladd McConkey is shaping up to be a true game-time decision. While I do think he will ultimately be active and play, there's a chance he’s ruled out or ends up playing less than 100% and is more of a decoy.
In either scenario, it will only make it more likely for Johnston to have a ceiling game. Mahomes tends to spread it around, which could prevent any Chiefs player from setting the bar too high here.
I think having a very correlated combo of Herbert/Pacheco/Johnston at +2000 is the way to go for this game as my official Triple Crown play.
