In one of the most highly-anticipated matchups of Week 2, the Los Angeles Chargers head to Kansas City for an AFC West bout with the Chiefs (4.5).
The Chiefs blew the doors off the Arizona Cardinals to open the season while LA defended home field and downed their division foe Raiders. Now, two of the NFL’s most high-powered offenses meet under the bright lights in prime time. The total is at a whopping 54.5.
Here’s a same-game parlay to help add even more entertainment to your Thursday night.
Chargers
+4.5
If there’s an overreaction to Week 1, it’s this spread jumping two points to 4.5 on Thursday night.
Yes, the Chiefs looked tremendous in their season opener. They obliterated the Arizona Cardinals and Patrick Mahomes didn’t miss a step without Tyreek Hill. But it’s also important to note how injury-riddled Arizona was, and the fact that Kliff Kingsbury is, well, not a good head coach.
Now, on a short week, the Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites to their division-rival Chargers? In my opinion, this line should be around 3.
Last season, both times these two teams battled, the game came down to the wire.
The first time, the Chargers went into Kansas City early into the year and scored with 32 seconds left to win, 30-24. Later that season, the Chiefs got their revenge on a game-winning overtime touchdown.
I’d expect a similar narrative on Thursday night. The total is at 54.5 for a reason — this can turn into a shootout real quick. Even with Keenan Allen on the sidelines, the Chargers are undervalued.
It’s never fun to fade a team like the Chiefs, but this is the spot to do it off a short week against another high-powered offense behind Justin Herbert.
Chargers-Chiefs
Under 54.5
This is a game that could quickly turn into a high-scoring game between elite offenses, but I’m backing the trends here on Thursday night.
For starters, this is a quick turnaround for both teams after playing on Sunday. And the Chargers had a close, physical game with their division rival Raiders. This line opened at 52 and has sinced jumped up to 54.5, but I’m hesitant to back the perceived shootout.
Per Action Network’s Brandon Anderson, Thursday unders with a total over 51 are 17-8-1 (68%). If you bump that number to 54, they are a perfect 7-0, going under by nearly 14 points per game.
This plays into my Chargers play, as well. I think everyone is overreacting to Mahomes’ insane Week 1 and sees the Chiefs and Chargers and expects a shootout. Even in the two games last season, if it weren’t for late touchdowns, the under — if it were 54.5 — would’ve been a perfect 2-0. Instead, it split one apiece.
It’s always scary taking a Chiefs under, but I expect their receivers to struggle a bit against a way better Chargers defense. And without safety valve Keenan Allen, we could see L.A. experience similar struggles early on.
This is just too many points for me to pass on. I could look like an idiot halfway through the game, but I’m backing the trends here and they point toward the under.
Mike Williams
Over 69.5 Yards
This is the perfect buy-low spot on Mike Williams.
The 6-foot-4 receiver was held to 10 yards on two receptions — four targets — in the season opener against Las Vegas. But I’m not worried at all about Williams, who led the Chargers receivers in both snaps and routes run.
With Allen (hamstring) out, I’d expect Justin Herbert to rely on his receiver heavily on Thursday night. This is a game where we could see Williams’ targets hit double digits.
It’s also important to note that last season after a dud, Williams bounced back in terrific fashion. Twice last season he was targeted four or fewer times. In the pair of games that followed, Williams totaled 17 receptions on 33 targets, 284 yards and three touchdowns.
I expect a big performance out of Williams on Thursday night and am not daunted by his high prop total of 69.5 yards. Give me all the Williams stock entering Week 2.
Josh Palmer
Anytime Touchdown
Allen’s injury puts a lot of value on some of the lesser-known players to breakout on Thursday night for the Chargers.
Enter Josh Palmer, who totaled the second-most snaps (75%) of all Chargers receivers in the season opener. He tallied three receptions — only five yards — but that’s unimportant. The fact that Palmer was consistently on the field and saw a jump in usage after the Allen injury makes him a tantalising option as an anytime touchdown scorer on Thursday night.
In 2021, Allen was the No. 1 red zone receiver for Los Angeles — 25% of the targets — and his absence in Week 2 will open plenty of opportunities for the Chargers receiving group.
Palmer was targeted eight times last season in the red zone, making six catches and scoring twice.
I’d expect added focus on stopping Williams as the Chargers march down the field. With Austin Ekeler’s odds not standing out to me, I love taking a chance on Palmer to round out the parlay here.
The Parlay (+2314)
- Chargers +4.5 (-114)
- Under 54.5 (-114)
- Mike Williams o69.5 Yards (-114)
- Josh Palmer Anytime TD (+230)
Bonus Play
Gerald Everett
Under 38.5
For every buy low, there’s a sell high. Despite Allen’s injury, I think Gerald Everett’s receiving yards line is inflated heading into Week 2.
In the season opener, Everett caught three of four targets for 54 yards. Two of those catches went for big yardage and one came on a near-collision between five players on the Chargers’ opening drive.
Everett’s yardage prop sits around 40 on Wednesday evening and is a few yards too high in my opinion. Action Labs projects this prop around 35.9, and I even lean to the under there.
In Week 1, Everett just barely out snapped backup tight end Tre’ McKitty, 44-40. He’s a big body and someone I can see being used consistently in short distances near the red zone on Thursday, but that normally doesn’t lead to big gains.
Last season, Everett hit over his current line of 38.5 yards just five times. Even in a more pass-heavy offense, I think this number is a bit high for Everett. The Chiefs defense was around league average against tight ends last year and dazzled in Week 1, holding Zach Ertz to just 14 yards on two receptions.
If added, the parlay jumps to +4341.
