Hope your Christmas was great. We went 2-1 on props and would've been unbeaten if Christian Watson didn't get hurt late in the Packers' win over the Dolphins.
Now, we're onto Chargers vs Colts player props.
We'll look to stay hot with three more picks on Monday Night Football. These bets are made using Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon's projections on Action Labs. There are a lot of edges for tonight, but here's a taste.
Zack Moss
Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (+105, BetMGM)
Deon Jackson
Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (+110, BetMGM)
It’s tough to figure out the Colts backfield after last week’s epic loss to the Vikings. Indianapolis led most of the game and ran the ball 37 times between Zack Moss and Deon Jackson, while Matt Ryan attempted 33 passes.
Moss had 24 of those carries and was a popular waiver-wire pickup for managers in need of a late-season savior at running back. Jackson had 13 rush attempts.
Neither Koerner or Raybon are sold that will be how the backfield plays out on Monday Night Football. Raybon has both Moss and Jackson projected for 10 carries, while Koerner pegs Jackson for 9.5 carries and Moss for 11.7.
Those numbers create value on Jackson’s rushing attempts over at 7.5, which is +110 at BetMGM, and under 13.5 for Moss, which is +105 at BetMGM.
The message out of Indianapolis is that there is not RB1 necessarily with Jonathan Taylor out for the season, and that the duo of Moss and Jackson will split work.
The skepticism on Moss is warranted. In his first four games with the Colts, he played 2%, 6%, 2% and 7% of snaps. Then, last week in Minnesota, he played 67%. Jackson played 20% of snaps in two of those four games with Moss.
Jackson is likely the more proficient pass catcher, having caught 10 balls back in Week 6 against the Jaguars, so the game script probably led Moss to more work than him last week. Getting plus numbers on these two props is great.
Austin Ekeler
Over 4.5 Receptions (-128, FanDuel)
Both Koerner and Raybon like this prop too. Koerner projects Ekeler for 5.5 receptions, while Raybon has him at six.
Ekeler has cleared 4.5 receptions in 10 of 14 games this season en route to becoming a PPR cheat code for fantasy managers. Heck, he’s cleared 5.5 receptions in nine games this season. He’s cleared 6.5 receptions in eight games, and 7.5 receptions six times.
So, why is his prop just 4.5 receptions against the Colts tonight?
Well, frankly I have no idea.
The Colts are allowing 5.6 receptions per game to opposing running backs, and those running backs weren’t the best pass-catching running back in the NFL.
That’s about all the detail I need on why to bet this one. On paper, it seems like a slam dunk, even with the juice. I’d bet it to -150.
Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 Receptions (-128) |
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