Capping off Saturday’s NFL Wild Card slate, the Los Angeles Chargers head to Jacksonville to take on the AFC South champion Jaguars.
This marks Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence’s first playoff games, and both enter on high notes. The Chargers won four straight before losing in a meaningless Week 18 bout with Denver, while the Jaguars won five straight and took the division from the Titans in the final week of the season.
The Chargers enter as 2.5-point road favorites with a game total of 47.5.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Saturday Night Football.
Austin Ekeler
Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
Often managed with limitations throughout the regular season, expect a full workload for Austin Ekeler. He’s going to receive the lion’s share of snaps — like normal — but should see added usage in the ground game.
Known more for his pass-catching abilities, Ekeler is also a talented runner. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry this season and has gone over 50 yards in three of the Chargers’ last four games. The only time he went under was in the Week 18 bout against Denver.
The Chargers are betting favorites, and with a positive game script comes more carries. Mike Williams, who reportedly suffered a fractured back in that meaningless Broncos game, will also be sidelined and L.A. should be more inclined to get the ball in the hands of its star playmakers.
My colleague Sean Koerner projects Ekeler to receive 13 carries for about 54.5 rushing yards. He’s also on this prop that still has a few yards of value, pointing out that Ekeler had just 50% of the carries in the regular season. That’ll definitely increase in a win or go home game.
Ekeler has ripped off a double-digit rush in 10 games this season and we should see a fast-paced contest, which offers more opportunities for Ekeler.
Expect the Bolts to get the ball to their featured back early and often.
Chargers ML
This game is a coin flip. But for continuity sake for the same game parlay, I’m going to add Chargers money as a direct correlation with Ekeler’s over.
The Jaguars have home-field advantage and enter on a five-game win streak, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to compensate for their defensive woes. Jacksonville ranks 26th in defensive DVOA and 30th in pass DOVA.
Justin Herbert should have no issues even without Mike Williams. He still has a talented cast with Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer and Austin Ekeler.
The last time these two teams squared off (Week 3), the Jaguars rolled in L.A., 38-10. But Herbert was battling a fresh rib injury he suffered a week prior against Kansas City while Allen was sidelined — it was a totally different Chargers team.
With the opportunity for revenge, this is a great spot for Herbert. He is 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in his career after losing to an opponent in the previous matchup.
I understand the whole narrative of Trevor Lawrence never losing a game on a Saturday. He was a sparkling 32-0 in college and won all three matchups in high school. But this is a different breed. It’s a playoff game, and he draws a Chargers defense that will receive a huge boost in Joey Bosa.
L.A.’s defense struggles against the run, but is actually top 10 in pass defense DVOA. Getting Bosa back will help in both regards, and should put added pressure on a shaky Jaguars offensive line.
Left tackle Cam Robinson is out for the year and Jacksonville's line should struggle to contain the Chargers pass rush. Rather than just Khalil Mack, they’ll now be tasked with constant pressure from him and Bosa.
This is a tough matchup for the Jaguars and though Williams is out, I still have believe the Chargers are the better team. While I won’t take the points, adding the ML alongside Ekeler’s over is a perfect combination and opening two legs to this parlay.
DeAndre Carter
Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
The Mike Williams news will send bettors flocking to Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer props, but I love the value on DeAndre Carter.
An explosive receiver with great speed, Carter finally found a role in his sixth NFL season. He hauled in 46 receptions for 538 yards — 11.8 aDOT — and finished with 1.08 Y/RR. Notably, when Williams is sidelined, Carter seems to thrive.
In the four games Williams missed, Carter went over this 34.5 number three times. Allen did miss two of those games, but it shows that Carter is no stranger to stepping up into a bigger role.
All attention will be on Allen, which opens the door for role players like Carter. He has big-play ability and has broken receptions for 20-plus yards in eight games this season.
Again, this sets up to be a fast-paced affair. The Jaguars allow the fourth-most plays to opponents and that provides a nice boost to Carter, who should fill in as Herbert's WR3.
Our Action Lab projections have Carter at 38.9 receiving yards with a mean of 44, so there’s value to the over. Given that it’s the playoffs, we could see plenty of designs that involve a speedy and explosive receiver like Carter.
He’s unlike any other Chargers receiver and holds plenty of value entering a matchup against a pass-funnel Jaguars defense that's struggled all season.
The Parlay (+429)
- A. Ekeler Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Chargers ML (-138)
- D. Carter Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Pick: 3-Leg Same Game Parlay (+429) |
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