We were so close last week. All we needed was one more touchdown from Aaron Rodgers, and we would have been rolling in the dough! Instead, A.J. Dillon came in stole two touchdowns while we were left disappointed. Hopefully, we rebound and add some money to our bankroll for the playoffs.
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBet's $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Chargers vs. Raiders Odds
This game has the potential to be the most disappointing game ever televised. If the Jaguars pull off the upset against Indy at 1 p.m. today, a tie would get both teams into the playoffs.
However, according the NFL Rulebook (Rule 17.1.10), the commissioner has the authority to take corrective measures if both teams throw the game and thus violate the game's integrity, so don't count on a kneel-fest that ends in a tie.
Now, back to the real world where we expect the Jags to lose and both teams to try.
A three-point spread in this game shocked me. The Chargers had a defensive gaffe against Houston but have otherwise looked great recently. Outside of the Texans' loss, the Chargers have had three dominant wins against the Bengals, Giants, and Broncos and forced overtime against the Chiefs in their past five.
For all the love Joe Burrow has received in recent weeks, Justin Herbert has played similarly dominant football this season. The offense is clicking, and while the defense is flawed, they still have Derwin James and Joey Bosa. All they need is a couple of big plays from those two, and the offense can take care of the rest.
As for the Raiders, they have shown their defense is good as long as the opposing quarterback is not. Since their bye, Vegas has held five offenses under 20 points: the Giants, Football Team, Browns, Broncos and Colts. These are all teams that want to run the ball and take it out of their quarterbacks' hands.
Against teams with good passing attacks: Chiefs (twice), Bengals and Cowboys, the Raiders have allowed at least 30 points every time. Unfortunately, their offense has not displayed an ability to keep up as they have scored over 30 points just once since their bye in Week 8.
The Raiders struggle to stop passing teams, and the Chargers have one of the best young QBs in the game. This game has Chargers written all over it from start to finish. Let’s put together our parlay now.
The Parlay (+1100)
- Josh Jacobs Over 50 Rushing Yards (-226)
- Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
- Jared Cook Anytime Touchdown (+250)
- Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 (+130)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Chargers vs. Raiders
Prop 1: Josh Jacobs Over 50 Rushing Yards (-226)
When you can’t stop the opposing offense with your defense, you keep them on the sideline. That means a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs on the ground. The Chargers rank 27th in yards per rush allowed, so there should be some room for Jacobs to scamper.
We are keeping this prop total at 50 because the Raiders have been forced to settle for a lot of field goals. This could be a game where the Chargers count by seven and the Raiders by three, so they may be forced off the run as the game goes on.
Prop 2: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
There have only been five games where Herbert hasn’t crossed this mark this year, so in any game it is a good bet. If you include that they are playing the Raiders who have been torched by above-average quarterbacks, this bet is even more favorable.
In their first matchup, Herbert connected on three passing touchdowns. That was even with the Raiders limiting the Chargers' best two receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Prop 3: Jared Cook Anytime Touchdown (+250)
Speaking of limiting Allen and Williams, the hero in the first matchup was Jared Cook. He went off for 70 yards and a touchdown in what has been his best game of the season. Cook has not been alone in his success either. Against the Raiders, tight ends have been successful all year, accumulating 938 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Vegas has answers for the Chargers' top two options thanks to Casey Hayward and Nate Hobbs, both of whom rank top 20 defensive backs, per PFF. If we have Herbert throwing touchdowns, someone has to catch them. Who better than the man who dominated last time?
Prop 4: Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 (+130)
Alas, if we are sticking to our guns, we have to believe in the Chargers to win comfortably. The Raiders' losses of Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs III have just been too much. They do return Darren Waller to the lineup but still lack the over-the-top threat. This team has moved the ball well and ranks 15th in yards per drive. However, these drives have not ended in enough points as they rank 25th in points per drive.
Against those run-first teams, trading field goals was okay because Derek Carr was the more clutch quarterback. Now, they will need touchdowns, but they have not shown they have what it takes to finish those drives. Herbert will put up big numbers this week, and it will be too much for the Raiders to compete with.
There you have it our four-leg parlay. Hopefully, we cash out big tonight and can make some fun playoff bets with it!
