NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
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Chargers vs. Raiders Prop Bets & Picks
Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders.
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
THE PICK: Under 13.5 receiving yards (-114)
Jacobs has had a fantastic rookie season. He’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has six rushing touchdowns through his first eight games. Overall, he’s graded out as the top runner in the entire NFL per Pro Football Focus.
That said, the one thing he has struggled to do is catch the football. He’s logged only 15 targets all season, and he’s received two or fewer targets in six of his first eight games. That includes last week, when he could've been charged with two drops on just two targets. Jacobs has averaged only 9.3 yards per reception, so he'll need to be effective with his limited targets to hit the over.
I’m fine with betting against Jacobs as a receiver in this spot. I’d play the under up to -125.
Raiders WR Zay Jones
THE PICK: Over 27.5 receiving yards (-125)
Jones was a midseason addition after being acquired from the Buffalo Bills, and his role with the team appears to be growing. He played on just 39% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps in Week 8, but that number jumped all the way to 92% in Week 9. Tyrell Williams was active in both contests, so Jones managed to do that despite the team being at full strength.
Jones also earned four targets in his last contest, which ranked second among the Raiders wide receivers. Derek Carr only needed to throw the ball 31 times in that game, so it's reasonable to expect his target numbers to increase moving forward.
This is also a solid spot for Jones. He’s expected to see the majority of his snaps vs. Chargers cornerback Michael Davis, who has easily been their worst corner this season in terms of PFF grade. The Chargers defense also ranks just 23rd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
Jones led the Raiders WRs in snaps last week, so I don’t think 27.5 yards is a very high bar to clear. I like the over up to -145.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers
THE PICK: Under 0.5 rushing yards (-125)
I love Rivers. He stomps around on the sidelines. He makes funny faces. He has like 100 children. The dude is great for anyone who enjoys football.
That said, he's easily one of the worst athletes at the quarterback position in 2019. That’s obviously not his fault — Father Time is undefeated, and Rivers is 37 years old and has had a major knee injury. He wasn’t exactly Michael Vick when he broke into the league either: He ran just a 5.08 40-yard dash at the NFL combine.
Rivers did start the season with at least six rushing yards in his first three games, but he’s logged zero yards or fewer in each of his past six. Maybe he’ll get a yard or two on a QB sneak, but that’s really all you have to worry about with him today.
This prop is just way underpriced — -125 odds have an implied probability of 55.56%, but Rivers has posted zero rushing yards or fewer in 31 of his past 41 games (75.61%). I’d play this up to -200.
