I already previewed Chargers vs. Texans and gave my pick on the over/under in my game guide, but I have two additional NFL prop picks for this Wild Card tilt.
I'm targeting three props for two Chargers players — DJ Chark and Simi Fehoko.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
Chargers vs. Texans Prop Picks
DJ Chark Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-113); Bet to Under 7.5
DJ Chark Under 1.5 Receptions (-180; bet to -225)
In seven games on the active roster, Chark has caught 4-of-10 targets for 31 yards (4.4 per game) and has been held under two receptions and 10 yards in all but one game. He’s averaging a career-low 7.8 yards per reception and 0.55 yards per route.
Despite logging a season-high 20 routes and a 52.6% route participation rate last week with Joshua Palmer out, Chark caught just 1-of-3 targets for six yards.
Palmer (foot) is out again for Saturday's game, but the Texans just activated Simi Fehoko, who has been on IR since Week 10 with an elbow injury and figures to significantly cut into Chark’s snaps after practicing in full Wednesday and Thursday.
Fehoko averaged 15.8 routes per game and a 48.6% route participation rate across eight games from Weeks 1-9, including three starts (one in place of Palmer and two in place of Quentin Johnston), logging route participation rates of 80.0%, 95.5%, and 81.6%.
The Chargers elevated running back Jaret Patterson over Ezekiel Elliott despite having four healthy running backs already on the roster, which signals the move is for special teams, likely to free up Fehoko from his special teams role (10.1 snaps per game) so he can slide into the WR3 role.
With Derius Davis becoming more of a factor on offense (eight touches, 58 scrimmage yards, two TDs over the last three weeks), Chark is likely headed for a minimal role as the WR5. The coaching staff has shown little trust in him all season, leaving him buried on the depth chart behind guys like Fehoko, Davis, and Jalen Reagor (IR-finger).
When Chark does see the field, he’ll face a tough matchup against a Texans defense that is third in DVOA against the pass and eighth in yards per target allowed to perimeter receivers (7.4).
Simi Fehoko Anytime Touchdown (+950; Bet to +700)
As I mentioned above, I think Fehoko is a decent bet to outsnap Chark, with upside to be the Chargers' clear-cut WR3 in place of the injured Josh Palmer (foot).
Of Fehoko’s 16 targets this season, four have come 20+ yards downfield and a fifth came in the 10-yard line. Fehoko has yet to score this season, but he did score on his only catch last season, giving him a career 14.3% TD rate per catch with the Chargers.
On six catches this season, FTN’s expected TD (xTD) model has Fehoko at 1.3 xTD, and PFF’s has him at 1.0 xTD, implying expected TD-per-catch rates of 21.7% and 16.7%, respectively.
