The Chicago Bears (4-7) and Detroit Lions (10-1) open NFL Thanksgiving at 12:30 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit. The game will be live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+ or YouTube TV.
Let's get into my Bears vs. Lions picks and NFL predictions, which is backing the big home favorite today.
The Lions are favored by 9.5 points over the Bears (Lions -9.5) with the game total set at 47.5 points scored. The Lions are -525 favorites on the moneyline, while the Bears are +390 to pull off the upset.
The Bears lost in overtime to the Vikings last week and have lost 7 straight. Caleb Williams has improved in the last 2 games under new play-caller Thomas Brown and had 340 passing yards and 2 touchdown passes against Minnesota. The Lions won 24-6 over the Colts last week and have 9 straight wins. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 3 touchdowns to power the offense.
Bears vs. Lions Prediction
Against the Spread
I'm betting the Lions against the spread. I would bet Detroit all the way to -12.5 since I see a massive edge for the Lions in this one.
Even with some money coming in on Chicago, the Lions remain a heavy public side, but money has come in on Chicago over the past few days with the spread moving briefly to Lions -9 at one point on Wednesday. Non-Dallas favorites that are the public side are 23-5 (82%) against the spread (ATS) on Thanksgiving since 2007, including a perfect 7-0 when the spread percentage hits the magic number of 74%. As of 10:45 a.m. ET, the Lions are at 76%.
Everyone and their estranged uncle will have a bet on the Lions on Thanksgiving. History says you should too. Take Lions -9.5 to the bank.
Moneyline
While I like the Lions against the spread, I see no value on the moneyline at -525. Lay the points with Detroit against a Bears team that has lost five straight games.
Over/Under
I'm also passing on the total for this game.
My Pick: Lions -9.5 (Play to -12.5)
Bears vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -525 |
- Bears vs. Lions spread: Lions -9.5 (-115)
- Bears vs. Lions game total: Over/Under 47.5 points scored
- Bears vs. Lions moneyline: Lions -525, Bears +390
- Bears vs. Lions prediction: Lions -9.5
MyBears vs. Lions pick is on Detroit. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Bears vs. Lions Preview: NFL Thanksgiving
You don't need an expert to tell you the Lions are the better team.
It might be worth a reminder just how much better the Lions are, though.
The Bears rank dead last in Offensive DVOA on the road, coming to a tough holiday environment to face a Lions pass defense that ranks tops in the league. Caleb Williams played perhaps the best ball of his professional career against Minnesota last week but that was at home against a quietly fading pass defense. Can he do it in this spotlight?
Chicago's run defense has also faltered badly, now third worst in the NFL. That's a huge problem against a Lions team built to dominate in the trenches and win with the run. Detroit has the best offensive line in the league and a powerful one-two punch in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, built to control the clock and chew up defensive fronts.
The Lions are the second-best team against the spread in the first half at 9-2 while the Bears are third-worst, setting up the usual script for the Lions to get out to an early lead and roll.
One place we haven't seen that? On Thanksgiving itself.
The Lions have lost seven in a row on Turkey Day, which means both Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have yet to win on Thanksgiving. You better believe Detroit knows that and will come into this game focused and ready to win, for the first time ever, as Super Bowl favorites.
Goff and the Lions continue to be nearly unbeatable indoors, now 32-10 ATS (76%) in the regular season, covering 13-of-15 games since an upset loss last Thanksgiving. It's a bad schedule spot for Chicago, with teams on a short week after a division game within three points covering just 43% of the time the past two decades, while the Bears are also tired off an overtime game.
Mostly though, this is just a Thanksgiving trends smash spot.
Even on this losing streak, the Lions have covered eight of their last 12 Thanksgiving games, a stretch that includes 4-1 ATS as favorites.
Besides, it's profitable betting favorites in general on Thanksgiving — as long as it's not the Cowboys. Non-Dallas Thanksgiving favorites are 30-10 ATS on Turkey Day since 2007, covering 75% of the time by almost a full touchdown.
This is a huge holiday game teams have waited for all season, so there's no look-ahead or letdown for the favorites. The good teams roll.
Great teams roll, too. Thanksgiving favorites of seven or more points are 19-7 ATS during that stretch, covering 73% of the time by almost a full touchdown themselves.
My Pick: Lions -9.5 (Play to -12.5)
Lions vs Bears Betting Trends
NFL Weather
