The Chicago Bears (1-0) and Houston Texans (1-0) square off on Sunday Night Football tonight in Week 2, with Bears vs. Texans set to start at 8:20 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston on NBC. The game is streaming live on YouTube TV and Peacock.
The Texans are consensus 6-point favorites over the Bears. The over/under is currently set at 45 points scored, although that line could move with the injury news that Bears WR Keenan Allen is inactive due to a heel injury and the Texans will be without RB Dameon Pierce because of a hamstring injury. The Texans are -265 favorites on the moneyline, with the Bears +215 underdogs to pull off the upset victory on the road.
Bears rookie Caleb Williams got off to a winning start in the NFL with the Bears' 24-17 win over the Titans in Week 1, although he finished with less than 100 passing yards. C.J. Stroud, meanwhile, picked up where he left off last season and thrived with offseason acquisitions Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in the Texans' 29-27 win over the Colts.
Let's get into my Bears vs. Texans predictions and my NFL picks and predictions for Sunday Night Football.
Bears vs. Texans Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -112 | 45 -108o / -112u | +210 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -108 | 45 -108o / -112u | -260 |
- Bears vs. Texans Spread: Texans -6
- Bears vs. Texans Over/Under: 45 points
- Bears vs. Texans Moneyline: Texans -265, Bears +215
- Bears vs. Texans Pick: Bears at +6.5, Texans at -6
My Texans vs. Bears best bet was a lean toward the under, but the total has come down 1.5 points across the board and as many as 2 points at some books. Instead, I'd recommend checking out our NFL PRO projections or my guy Dr. Nick Giffen's pick in our Bears vs. Texans Picks, Predictions and Best Bets for Sunday Night Football, depending on the line. Our sharp money Sunday Night Football pick is on the Texans if the odds are Texans -6 or better. On the other hand, if you find the Bears at +6.5 or better, then Dr. Nick is on Chicago.
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I'm staying away from the spread as of Saturday night since I'm right in line with the market, but the game-time statuses of Allen and Odunze create a lot of moving parts. However, if you're looking to bet the Texans vs. Bears spread, you could do a lot worse than riding with Dr. Nick or our PRO edges as outlined above.
Spread Pick: Texans -6 or better, Bears +6.5 or better
Over/Under
The total is also a tough call given the questionable status of two key offensive players. It would be under or nothing for me in this spot, but we have early indications that the new kickoff rules have resulted in an increase in scoring, so there's a lot of variance in this market.
Over/Under Pick: Lean Under at 46.5
Moneyline
Given the uncertainty with a talented rookie quarterback making his second start amid a banged up supporting cast, the only bet I feel confident about is the Texans on the moneyline, with the best line available at DraftKings, according to our NFL odds page. However, the best way to bet that was in a parlay with the Ravens.
Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans: Sunday Night Football
Note: All statistics are from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
This game is difficult to truly handicap until we know the status of wide receivers Keenan Allen (questionable; heel) and Rome Odunze (questionable; MCL), who are both game-time decisions.
Allen didn't practice all week but seems more likely of the two to play. Odunze got in a limited session on Friday, but his MCL sprain was initially reported as a week-to-week injury by ESPN's Adam Schefter, so the game-time-decision designation could be a bit of gamesmanship by Bears head coach Matt Eberflus.
Despite adding DE Danielle Hunter, the Texans generated a pressure rate of just 16.7%, which ranks 25th heading into Sunday's game. The Colts' offensive line is a high-end unit, however, and Houston should have more success against a rookie quarterback in its own building.
With that being said, the Texans are still vulnerable on the back end. Anthony Richardson averaged 23.6 yards per completion against Houston's secondary and left a bunch of yardage on the table with off-target throws.
Caleb Williams had the same issue in Week 1, but Allen and Odunze are more likely to get downfield separation, as well as free up DJ Moore to do the same, providing Williams with larger passing windows. If both are out, the Bears will likely be forced to use Moore as an underneath receiver again — he had five receptions for 36 yards with a 4.4 aDOT (per PFF) on eight targets in Week 1 — which is not the best use of his abilities.
If Allen is active, he could assume that underneath role, even if he's mostly a decoy. With fullback Khari Blasingame (hand) out, you would think Cole Kmet gets a bump in playing time after getting outsnapped by Gerald Everett 34-27 overall and 24-15 on passing downs.
But that's the issue with the Bears offense — there are a ton of unknowns after Shane Waldron made a mess of the game plan in Week 1, and the floor could be even lower this week. Williams will enter Sunday night coming off a week in which he failed to get sorely needed practice time with two of his top three wide receivers. A non-existent running game lost its fullback and starting guard Ryan Bates (IR;shoulder).
The Texans, meanwhile, are at nearly full health. In C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, they have the passing-game chops to have success against a strong Bears secondary that held Will Levis to 104 net passing yards on 35 dropbacks (3.0 net yards per attempt).
The Bears were better in the second half with their run fits after letting Tony Pollard go off for 9-64-1 in the first half, but overall, they still allowed 20-103-1 to Pollard (16-82-1) and Tyjae Spears (4-21-0), so the Texans have to be feeling good about how they match up on the ground after Joe Mixon went off for 30-159-1.
According to PFF, Mixon's 101 yards after contact were the second-most of Week 1, behind only Rhamondre Stevenson's 118. Yards after contact tends to be a stickier, more predictive metric than yards before contact, so that is a positive development, especially after last year's No. 1 back, Devin Singletary finished tied for 37th of 63 qualifiers with 2.85 yards after contact per carry.
Stroud is 4-4 straight-up on the road but 6-2 SU at home, where his efficiency numbers see a bump:
- Home: 65.5% completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 6.1% TD rate, 108.3 passer rating
- Road: 63.6% completion rate, 7.8 YPA, 3.1% TD rate, 94.6 passer rating
Williams will have better days, but with the Bears offense in a state of flux and their defense meeting its match, I think this is the spot Williams takes his first loss.
My favorite bet, if you see this early enough in the day on Sunday, would be to parlay the Ravens and Texans' moneylines. Otherwise, keep an eye on the over/under or think about teasing the Texans.
Texans vs. Bears pick: Texans -6 or better, Bears +6.5 or better
Betting Trends
- 46% of bets and 82% of the money are on the Texans to cover the spread.
- 71% of bets and 57% of the money are on the over.
- 92% of bets and 92% of the money on the moneyline are on the Texans.
All betting trends via our NFL public betting and percentages page.
How to Watch Sunday Night Football
| Location: | NRG Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 15 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC / Peacock, YouTube TV |
Texans vs. Bears is scheduled for an 8:20 p.m. ET start time, live from NRG Stadium in Houston on Sunday night. The game will be on TV on NBC and streaming on Peacock, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
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