Chargers vs Bears Predictions, Picks: Sunday Night Football Bets Tonight
Chargers to Cover the Spread -8.5 | Bet to -9.5
Under 46.5 Total Points Scored | Bet to 46
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -440 |
Let's preview Sunday Night Football with Chargers vs Bears picks and predictions, featuring Sunday Night Football bets against the spread and on the over/under.
Currently, the Chargers are 9 or 9.5-point favorites against the spread vs the Bears. The over/under is 46 or 46.5 points scored, depending on the sportsbook.
If either team has any chance of making the playoffs, it needs a win on SNF.
Let's get into our Chargers vs Bears picks and prediction for Sunday Night Football tonight in Week 8.
Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points Scored | Play to 46
Pick: Chargers -8.5 | Play to -9.5
Chargers vs Bears: Sunday Night Football Bets Tonight
I ultimately agree with this spread. While I do think the Chargers are an ideal teaser piece — with the spread at -8.5, you go through key numbers of -3 and -7 — and I do expect the Chargers to ultimately win, I can't find value on this game myself.
So instead, I turned to a couple of our sharpest bettors, who conveniently had an over/under and a spread pick for me.
Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points Scored | Play to 46
Pick: Chargers -8.5 | Play to -9.5
Director of Predictive Analytics and the Oddsmaker himself, Sean Koerner, is on the under:
"I'm going under at 46, and you can even get this at 46.5 right now. You could just go under on primetime games this year and be looking pretty good.
"But for this game specifically, this is actually our lowest Luck Total Over/Under of the week at -8. It's mostly coming from the Bears; they have the eighth-highest red zone scoring percentage in the league at 63%, which probably isn't sustainable. They've also allowed the second-highest red zone scoring percentage.
"So we should probably see scoring go down in their games specifically. And games with a Total Luck Ranking of -5 or lower are 15-7, a 68% hit rate, this season."
Pick on Over/Under: Under 46.5 Total Points Scored | Play to 46 (via Sean Koerner)
While pro NFL bettor Simon Hunter likes the Chargers to cover against the spread, especially now that the number has come down from the opener a bit:
"I'm taking the Chargers at -9, -8.5, whatever it's at now. This number just sounds right for this Chargers team.
"Yes, the Bears played well last week with a backup quarterback, but the Raiders looked like they had nothing in the tank. They were just giving up. They had nothing going. The Bears took advantage of them. That doesn't really feel like it had to do with the Bears. Chicago has a lot of holes. And now that backup QB is making his first road start after winning his first home game? Just a disaster spot for this Bears team.
"This feels like a blowout for this Chargers team that, say what you want about them defensively, the last few losses for them have been on Herbert. This should be a good get-right spot for Herbert and the Chargers against a bad Bears secondary. A lot of people were shocked by this number. "Why is it this high? Are the Chargers really this good?" The books are telling you something.
"Don't let the records fool you. I'm a little scared about the backdoor, but I'll fade the public and take the Chargers all the way to -9.5."
Pick Against the Spread: Chargers -8.5 | Play to -9.5 (via Simon Hunter)
As Simon referenced, Tyson Bagent will once again get the start at quarterback for the Bears with Justin Fields still sidelined.
It's one hell of a story. To go from losing to the Colorado School of Mines (which just reached No. 1 in D2 for the first time in program history) in your last collegiate game to winning your first NFL start is legendary stuff.
However, let's cool our jets a bit. Bagent got to face a horrid Raiders defense that gives you absolutely everything underneath with an all-encompassing focus on taking away the explosive play. To his credit, that's exactly what Bagent did, throwing for only 162 yards on 29 attempts.
The good news for Bagent is he will get to face another bottom-five defense statistically and won't have to do so in that hostile of an environment. That said, the Chargers have a much better chance of forcing him into a key mistake or two with different coverage looks. This is still an extremely limited Chicago offense.
When the Chargers have the ball, all eyes will be on Justin Herbert, who has had a bit of an underwhelming start to the season. He hasn't been bad, but he has not lived up to his lofty expectations with a a rank of 14th in Success Rate and 12th in EPA+CPOE composite among all quarterbacks.
The biggest potential problem with Herbert is how much his numbers have fallen off a cliff since Mike Williams went down with an injury. Over the past month, Herbert ranks dead last in Adjusted Completion Percentage and his Success Rate has dropped by 15% without Williams. Just take a look at his other ranks among 28 other quarterbacks with at least 100 plays since Week 4:
- EPA+CPOE: 25th
- Adjusted EPA per play: 20th
- Success Rate: 26th
- Completion Percentage: 28th
Herbert does still rank No. 1 in Air Yards over that period, but the loss of Williams is glaring, especially since Quentin Johnson has not lived up to his first-round expectations. That has to pain Chargers fans, considering Los Angeles drafted him right before Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison, who are both having splendid rookie campaigns.
Chargers vs Bears Picks Against Spread, Over/Under
Pick: Chargers -8.5 | Play to -9.5
Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points Scored | Play to 46
There are also ways to bet the Chargers without actually backing them in this game.
Los Angeles has had a difficult schedule this season and plenty of close losses. I'm confident enough that it will get things going to the point of squeaking in. The odds for L.A. in that market will be worse after it beats the Bears.
Los Angeles has lost by two to Miami, three to Dallas, by three in overtime to Tennessee and at Kansas City as everyone does. The Chargers easily could have two or even three more wins against a very tough schedule. The path now gets much easier, starting with the Bears.
For the game, I can't lay more than a touchdown on the Chargers — ever. That's even the case against a Bears defense that simply cannot defend the pass, even if it's been surprisingly good against the run. But my colleagues can, so check out their picks.
