Vikings vs Bears Prediction, Odds, Pick
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
Vikings vs. Bears odds have Minnesota installed as a 3-point home favorite on the spread across the board on Monday with a game total of 43.5, which is down from 44 on Monday morning. Below, I'll break that information down to find an NFL pick.
Both teams face key injuries to offensive playmakers. RB D'Onta Foreman has been ruled out for the Bears, while Minnesota will be without star WR Justin Jefferson for one more week. Of course, Joshua Dobbs is also in for QB Kirk Cousins, who tore his Achilles earlier this season.
These teams already played back in Week 6, when the Vikings won in Chicago. Let's break down the game with my Monday Night Football preview as I try to find a Vikings vs. Bears prediction.
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Vikings vs. Bears
Matchup Analysis
The Bears defense has improved drastically since the first month of the season. (All EPA data is from rbsdm.com unless otherwise stated.)
- Weeks 1-4: 34.3 points allowed (31st), 0.223 EPA/play (31st), 46.2% success rate (26th)
- Week 5-on: 21.3 points allowed (17th), -0.067 EPA/play (10th), 41.9% success rate (10th)
The Vikings are 27th in rushing yards per game (93.8) and don't figure to have much of a run game in this one as the Bears have been particularly excellent on run defense since Week 5, holding opponents to an NFL-low 3.0 yards per carry while ranking first in EPA/rush (-0.294) and success rate (27.0%).
That puts the Minnesota offense on the shoulders of Joshua Dobbs. The Bears have allowed just 9.8 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, so Dobbs might not be able to rely on his legs as much as he has in his first three games with the Vikings (43.7 rushing yards per game).
Justin Jefferson (questionable, hamstring) returning would obviously be ideal, but Dobbs should have opportunities either way. Even with the acquisition of Montez Sweat, the Bears struggle to generate consistent pressure and rank last in pressure rate on the season (24.2%), per FTN.
Since joining the Vikings, Dobbs has struggled mightily under pressure but has carved up defenses when given time to throw:
- Under pressure: 42.9% CMP, 4.5 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 53.7 rating
- Clean: 75.0% CMP, 7.6 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT, 111.2 rating
(All QB pressure data via PFF unless otherwise stated.)
Make Your Vikings vs. Bears Pick at FanDuel
The Vikings defense leads the league in blitz rate (49.3%, per FTN) under Brian Flores, but Justin Fields has been decent against the blitz, completing 58.8% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns and two interceptions.
With that being said, this is by no means an easy matchup for Fields — the Vikings are up to ninth in defensive DVOA, with ninth-place rankings against both the pass and the run. In the first meeting back in Week 5, Fields found success as a runner, rushing eight times for 46 yards before going down with an injury. Passing, however, was an issue: Fields was sacked on four of his 14 dropbacks and completed 6-of-10 passes for 58 yards with an interception.
The Bears piled up 162 rushing yards against Minnesota in the first meeting but had more success with the non-traditional rushing game: Bears quarterbacks and wide receivers combined for 12 carries, 65 yards (5.4 YPC) and a touchdown while Bears tailbacks rushed 24 times for 97 yards (4.0 YPC) and a long of just 12.
Khalil Herbert will take over for the sidelined Foreman (ankle), but whether that's a positive or a negative could go either way. While Herbert edges Foreman in yards per carry (4.6 to 4.1), Foreman has been the more consistent runner, edging Herbert in rushing success rate (56.5% to 46.3%).
Vikings vs. Bears
Betting Picks & Predictions
The spread opened at Vikings -3.5 and would likely get back there if Jefferson were to surprisingly get the green light, but as it stands, there is not an edge on either side of this line. This game will come down to whether the Bears can generate pressure enough to stay within striking distance, and whether Fields can make enough plays with his legs to counteract the exotic pressure looks Flores will throw at him.
The public is ever so slightly on Chicago at the time of this writing, and public road 'dogs are 17-13-1 (57%) ATS this season and 154-111-8 (58%) ATS since 2018, according to our Action Labs data. But the Vikings have not been a profitable team to fade, going 7-3 ATS this season, including 2-1 as a favorite.
The public is also on the under, which is understandable seeing how primetime unders are 25-9 (74%) this season. But Fields' ability to extend plays has made betting Bears unders an unprofitable endeavor as of late, with the over going 12-3 (80%) in Fields' last 15 starts.
The side and total is a no-bet for me, but be sure to follow me in the Action App in case I end up betting a player prop. You can also check out our staff's picks for the game, as well as the edge according to our NFL PRO Projections.
