The Chicago Bears (4-9) and Minnesota Vikings (11-2) will play on NFL Monday Night Football to close Week 15 at 8 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The game will be broadcast live on ABC and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
Let's get into my Bears vs. Vikings prediction and Monday Night Football NFL picks, as well as the latest betting trends, injury reports, inactives and weather forecast.
The latest Bears vs. Vikings odds at DraftKings list the Vikings as -350 moneyline favorites and Bears as +280 underdogs. The over/under is 43.5 total points (-110o / -110u). The Vikings are 7-point favorites on the spread over the Bears (-7; -110).
Bears vs. Vikings Odds, Prediction, Pick
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -120 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 +100 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Spread: Vikings -7
- Over/Under: 43.5 points scored
- Moneyline: Vikings -350, Bears +280
- Bears vs. Vikings pick: Bears +7
My bet is backing Chicago against the spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
- 78% of bets and 77% of the money are on the Vikings to cover the spread
- 82% of bets and 70% of the money are on the over
- 90% of bets and 98% of the money are on the Vikings moneyline
Against the Spread
I'm not sold on the Vikings and am looking to fade them here.
I'll take the seven points with Chicago, but that's a key number I'm hoping to get.
Over/Under
I'm projecting this total as 44, so I'm right in line with the market and will pass on betting either side. The line moved to 43.5 late on Monday afternoon, but that doesn't change anything for me.
My Pick: Bears +7
Bears vs. Vikings Picks, Preview
Last week, everybody was running to the window to back the Bears as a 3.5-point underdog in San Francisco in a game that closed at 3. Now, nobody apparently wants any part of Chicago catching a touchdown in the City of Lakes.
Well, to me at least, that's usually a sign to buy low on the enigmatic Bears, who should at least be counted on to show up for a primetime game against a divisional rival.
Losers of seven straight and completely out of the playoff picture, you might get some weeks where they come out completely flat, as we saw in Arizona and last week in the Bay Area. While they could still get blown out, I don't think the level of care or fight should be a concern in this spot and you'd hope the entire operation is a bit cleaner in the second week under interim head coach Thomas Brown.
Keep in mind four of those aforementioned seven losses came by a total of 10 points, including all three games within the division:
- Lost 20-19 vs. Green Bay (game-winning field goal blocked)
- Lost 30-27 vs. Minnesota (in overtime)
- Lost 23-20 at Detroit (time ran out before they could attempt a field goal)
I expect the effort to be there in this particular spot. Plus, I generally like grabbing a divisional 'dog on the road after they lost the first matchup.
It also doesn't hurt that Caleb Williams has already seen Brian Flores' defense, which he appeared to get more comfortable against as the game progressed in the first meeting.
Not only is this a decent buy-low spot on the Bears, but it's also an opportunity to sell high on a Vikings team that comes in on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, having won six straight. The Vikings are undoubtedly a good football team, but I think they are a tad overrated in the market.
Those six consecutive victories have come against teams that currently have a losing record (Jaguars, Colts, Bears, Titans, Cardinals and Falcons).
And it's not like they've been blowing out these subpar teams. Four of those wins came by one possession and they've been tied or trailed in the fourth quarter in each of the past three, including last week's 21-point victory over Atlanta.
From a matchup perspective, the Bears have struggled to defend the run since losing Andrew Billings. Fortunately for Chicago, the Vikings don't possess an overly efficient rushing attack (24th in EPA).
In the first meeting, Aaron Jones (whose also dealing with a hip injury) eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground, but a big portion of that came on a 41-yard scamper. In his 21 other carries, he only amassed 65 yards on the ground (3.1).
A large reason why the Vikings haven't had much success running the ball is they have three poor run blockers up front now that Cam Robinson has replaced the injured Christian Darrisaw at left tackle.
In the first meeting, Sam Darnold tore up a Bears secondary that decided to sell out to stop Justin Jefferson. That plan worked, but T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison went off, combining for 276 receiving yards.
I'll be curious to see how Chicago decides to approach this game schematically. It's pick your poison, but I'd anticipate the Bears playing more straight up and living with the results this time around.
Minnesota will score its fair share of points, although I wouldn't be shocked if Darnold gives the ball away once or twice.
The question then becomes, can Chicago keep up? Its backfield is extremely beat up, but I don't think it was going to get much on the ground against a stout Vikings run defense regardless.
It will all come down to Williams getting rid of the ball quickly to his receivers, who should have advantages on the outside against a secondary that doesn't boast elite talent and could potentially be down one starter at cornerback in Stephon Gilmore.
Can Williams balance getting rid of the ball quickly with creating off-script plays with his arms and legs? That remains to be seen. It certainly won't be an easy task in a raucous environment against a complex defense that brings a ton of pressure.
I'm looking to buy low and sell high in this divisional matchup that I project closer to six, so I need a full touchdown to back the Bears.
This is still a Chicago squad that has played competitive games more often than not this season, with six of its nine losses coming by six points or fewer. If I can get a +7 or better pregame or live, I'm holding my nose and backing the bad news Bears.
Remember, this is a week-to-week league and teams never look as good or as bad as they did the week prior in their outlier performances. Look no further than the Rams–49ers game on Thursday night.
Trending: Road underdogs on a losing streak of seven or more games are 48-30-1 (61.5%) ATS since 2003.
My Pick: Bears +7
Bears vs. Vikings Injuries
Bears Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RB D’Andre Swift | Questionable (groin) |
| RB Roschon Johnson | Out (concussion) |
| OL Ryan Bates | Out (concussion) |
| OL Braxton Jones | Out (concussion) |
| DL Gervon Dexter | Out (knee) |
Vikings Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| CB Stephon Gilmore | Questionable (hamstring) |
Bears vs. Vikings Betting Trends
Bears Trends
- Bears are 2-5 in their last 7 games against the spread
- Bears are 1-3 in their last 4 road games against the spread
- The totals have gone UNDER in 5 of the Bears’ last 7 games
Vikings Trends
- Vikings are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Vikings are 5-2 in their home games against the spread
- The totals have gone UNDER in 4 of the Vikings’ last 6 games
