Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Darrel Williams hold the most popular player props for the Kansas City Chiefs' season finale against the Denver Broncos on Saturday night.
The 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff is vital for Kansas City's seeding. With a loss, the Chiefs could drop as low as the No. 4 seed.
With a win and a Titans loss to the Texans, the Chiefs would be the No. 1 seed and guarantee the road to the Super Bowl goes through Arrowhead Stadium.
The good news for Kansas City is it absolutely dominates Denver, especially during the Andy Reid era.
And I don't mean it lightly when I say dominates.
The Chiefs have won their last 12 games against the Broncos dating back to 2015. Twelve-and-oh. That includes an 8-0 mark during the Patrick Mahomes era. Mahomes actually won his first career start in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Broncos in 2017 with several Chiefs starters out.
The odds reflect that disparity. The Chiefs are 10-point favorites on DraftKings (-115) and a ridiculous -475 on the moneyline.
The Broncos are drawing dead in the playoff race, but can take solace in putting the Chiefs into a precarious playoff position. Denver is a 10-point (-105) and+350 ML home underdog.
The sharps are actually hammering the Broncos' spread on account of the sizing and the fact that Denver is a decent, league-average team in every metric.
The Action Network's models indicate that the Broncos should actually be 8.1-point underdogs, giving the current spread a 3.5% edge.
While the public is hammering the Broncos for this Saturday night matchup, the same bettors are hammering these Chiefs player props.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Most Popular NFL Player Props
- Travis Kelce to score a touchdown at any time (-125)
- Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown at any time (-121)
- Darrel Williams to score a touchdown at any time (-110)
Odds and information is according to PointsBet
Kelce has scored in just six out of 15 games this season, which implies that his odds for this prop should be somewhere around +150 odds.
This Denver defense isn't filled with scrubs. They have the 12th-best pass defense according to Expected Points Added against the pass and are 13th in the NFL at Expected Points Added per play.
For that price, there just isn't enough value there.
Touchdown props for wide receivers and tight ends generally have negative expected value.
That principle holds true for Hill's touchdown prop. He's scored in just seven of 15 games, which implies the odds should be hovering around +115.
Williams' odds are a little bit better, but they're not fantastic. Williams has also scored in just six out of 15 games, but is taking a more pronounced role in this contest with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out.
This prop has by far the best value out of the three. Against the Broncos' rush defense (ranked No. 22 according to DVOA), the Chiefs will definitely be able to finesse some yards on the ground. Whether Williams gets into the end zone as a result, I'm not sure. However, at -110, that's a fair price for a coin-flip proposition.
