Chiefs Super Bowl Path: Has Kansas City Faced Toughest Playoff Schedule Ever?
The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons, but they've never faced such an uphill climb to reach the mountaintop.
It's easy to forget because it's Patrick Mahomes, but the Chiefs entered the postseason as the hunters, not the hunted. The Chiefs didn't get a first-round bye, or even a top-two seed. Mahomes was forced to play a road playoff game for the first time in his career, then another six days later.
Kansas City has taken down Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore — who were all widely accepted as three of the top four teams in the AFC all season (with the Chiefs as the other). Now, the Chiefs will have to face the king of the NFC — San Francisco. To win it all, the Chiefs will have to beat four of the five MVP finalists in Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, in addition to Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa, who were also both top five in MVP odds at various points this season.
Kansas City's path has been absolutely daunting. But is this the toughest path to a Super Bowl win in NFL history?
I dug deep into the past to rank the seven most difficult Super Bowl runs in history. And remember — the Chiefs still have to finish the job. Let's count them down from seven to one, with all seven coming in the past 30 years as the league has entered an era of parity, leaving more difficult opponents each postseason.
7. 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playoff Path: at 7-9 Washington, at 12-4 New Orleans, at 13-3 Green Bay, 14-2 Kansas City
Would it surprise you to learn that Tom Brady's most difficult Super Bowl path might not have come in New England?
At first, it might sound crazy considering nine of Brady's 10 Super Bowl appearances came with the Patriots, but it makes sense if you think about it. After all, most of those Patriots teams were great, great enough to lock up a top-two seed. That means a first-round bye and most, or all, home games until the Super Bowl, and it means playing as favorites much of the way.
For my money, the toughest Brady path in New England may have come in 2004. The Patriots were 14-2 and got the bye, but still had to beat Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb to win a ring. Manning was the MVP, but that game came in New England, and Pittsburgh was a tough 15-1 road test, but Roethlisberger was a rookie.
The Bucs had to play an extra game in the first round. It came against lowly 7-9 Washington, but that's still a road playoff game and no sure thing. The next two games came on the road, too — that's three of Brady's 11 lifetime road playoff wins — and the quarterback path was even more daunting with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes being the final three games.
Rodgers won MVP that year and Mahomes finished third. Brees was nowhere near the ballot, and that playoff loss was the final game of his career, but three road games and against three top-10 all-time quarterbacks is still a heck of a path.
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6. 2012 Baltimore Ravens
Playoff Path: 11-5 Indianapolis, at 13-3 Denver, at 12-4 New England, 11-4-1 San Francisco
The 2012 Ravens won the division at 10-6, but were hardly favorites entering the playoffs. The team had gone 12-4 with Joe Flacco in each of the two previous seasons, but had fallen short of the Super Bowl, and this version was a worse regular season team.
The opening round game at home against the Colts wasn't much of a test. Indianapolis had a better record, but ranked 24th in SRS and had wildly outplayed its underlying metrics in Andrew Luck's rookie season.
But the next two games came against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Manning's Broncos were the 1-seed and hadn't lost since early October — to Brady — and Manning was the MVP runner up. It was a classic game with D/ST scores both ways and a late Jacoby Jones bomb from Flacco that sent the game to overtime, where Baltimore finished the job.
That sent the Ravens to New England to face a Patriots team looking to return to the Super Bowl after blowing the previous season's finale. But Baltimore won that one too, then went on to win a Super Bowl featuring a blackout and a matchup of Harbaugh brothers, with Jim's 49ers featuring Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree, but falling short to John's Ravens.
The opening and closing opponents don't quite stack up to the other all-time great runs, but beating Manning and Brady on the road in back-to-back games will get you on any historic list.
5. 2011 New York Giants
Playoff Path: 10-6 Atlanta, at 15-1 Green Bay, at 13-3 San Francisco, 13-3 New England
The 2011 Giants eked out a division win by a game over the Eagles and Cowboys, but were a a distant 4-seed in a loaded NFC. Few expected much of a run from Eli Manning, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.
The playoff opener came at home against a Mike Smith-led Falcons team that didn't seem like much at the time, but did feature Matt Ryan, who would go on to win an MVP five years later.
The path ramped up in a hurry from there as the Giants headed to Lambeau Field to face the 15-1 Packers, who were probably Aaron Rodgers' best ever team. Rodgers was the MVP that season and helped Green Bay steal win after win in the regular season, but the Packers didn't win a single postseason game as New York knocked them out.
Up next were the 2-seed 49ers, a team that would head to the Super Bowl the following season. This one featured Alex Smith, not Kaepernick, and they were more of an elite defensive team, but the Giants found just enough offense to head to the Super Bowl. There, they faced Brady, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, and capped a winning 88-yard touchdown drive when Bradshaw fell into the endzone in the final minute.
New York beat two 1-seeds and a 2-seed and knocked off both Rodgers and Brady, plus a pair of former No. 1 overall pick quarterbacks. It was a very difficult run — even if it wasn't New York's most memorable.
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4. 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers
Playoff Path: at 11-5 Cincinnati, at 14-2 Indianapolis, at 13-3 Denver, 13-3 Seattle
The 2005 Steelers' run didn't just start in the postseason. Pittsburgh won its final four regular season games to sneak into the playoffs as the (then final) 6-seed.
The Steelers ceded the division to the Bengals, but beat them in the playoff opener thanks to an injury to Carson Palmer on Cincinnati's first play from scrimmage. Palmer had finished top five in MVP voting that season, but Pittsburgh lucked into an easy opponent with Palmer's absence.
Up next were the 1-seed Colts, featuring runner-up MVP Manning, along with Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, and the Steelers found another slice of luck. After letting a 21-3 lead headed into the fourth quarter slip away, Pittsburgh was holding on for dear life at 21-18, but had just stopped Manning and was looking to run the clock out. However, Jerome Bettis fumbled with 1:20 left and Colts defensive back Nick Harper looked off to the races, but stumbled and was tackled by Roethlisberger, of all people. The Steelers defense held just enough, Mike Vanderjagt missed his kick, and the Colts were out.
That sent Pittsburgh to Denver, where Mike Shanahan and Jake Plummer were the 2-seed. Pittsburgh didn't need any luck this time and doubled the Broncos up. That sent Pittsburgh to Super Bowl XL, where Seattle fans will tell you Pittsburgh got plenty of help again, this time from the referees. Mike Holmgren's Seahawks were favored and featured the MVP in Shaun Alexander, but Pittsburgh bottled Alexander up and won the title.
The Steelers beat the MVP, the runner up, and a fifth place finisher — but got a little help against all three.
3. 1997 Denver Broncos
Playoff Path: 11-5 Jacksonville, at 13-3 Kansas City, at 11-5 Pittsburgh, 13-3 Green Bay
John Elway hadn't been back to the Super Bowl in almost a decade since three losses early in his career, and the clock was ticking down in Elway's career.
The Broncos had an awesome regular season with the best offense in the league and a top-three MVP finish from Terrell Davis — and many underlying metrics would say Denver was the best team all season — but the Broncos split two games against the Chiefs and lost two of their final three to drop from the 1-seed to the 4-seed.
The top wild-card team still got a home game in 1997, so Denver opened at home against Mark Brunell's very good Jaguars and took care of Jacksonville with ease. That set up a return to Kansas City against 1-seed Elvis Grbac and Marty Schottenheimer, and the Broncos got their revenge in a close, low-scoring defensive battle.
The Steelers were up next and were just slight favorites as the home team. Bettis was on that team too, along with ahead-of-his-time slash weapon Kordell Stewart at quarterback. The game was back and forth in the first half before a quiet, defensive finish as Denver held on to win by a field goal to win the AFC.
The Super Bowl against the Packers was a memorable one. Green Bay was technically the 2-seed at 13-3, losing a tiebreaker to the 49ers, but Green Bay got its revenge in the playoffs and featured a high-flying offense with Brett Favre, Dorsey Levens and Antonio Freeman. Holmgren's guys were the defending champions, but Elway had perhaps the most memorable play of his career with a late helicopter run as the Broncos finally got their Super Bowl ring.
The Packers were the marquee opponent, though it's easy to feel underwhelmed by Stewart and Grbac, especially since those were two notorious underachieving teams in the playoffs that never really got over the hump.
Could we look back in a decade and think the same thing about Lamar Jackson's Ravens and Josh Allen's Bills? The parallels to this Kansas City run are pretty fascinating.
Elway was one of the all-time greats at quarterback, and the Elway-Shanahan comparison to Mahomes and Andy Reid is pretty easy. Like that 1997 Broncos path, the Chiefs will have faced four very good, tough opponents. Those Jaguars were good! The Dolphins, another Florida team, were too. Both games came in cold home environments and weren't close in the end, but those were difficult opening games.
Favre was the MVP too, and the Chiefs just beat the presumed MVP in Jackson.
Of course, the Broncos might have been the best team all along that season — and we might look back and say the same thing about Mahomes and the Chiefs if they finish the job here.
Though I think Kansas City's path was just a little more daunting …
2. 2024 Kansas City Chiefs
Playoff Path: 11-6 Miami, at 11-6 Buffalo, at 13-4 Baltimore, 12-5 San Francisco
This is where I slot the current Chiefs postseason run — if and only if Kansas City finishes the job.
The Chiefs would have beaten four of the five MVP finalists in Purdy, McCaffrey, Jackson and Allen, including totally throttling the presumed winner in Jackson. The defense also completely shut down a Dolphins offense that featured two of the top OPOY contenders, an offense that looked like it was breaking football at times this season.
Jackson, Allen, Tagovailoa and Purdy make a pretty awesome quarterback gauntlet. Remember, the latter two are playing with all their weapons in an ecosystem that makes them great. The coaching gauntlet is pretty sick too: Mike McDaniel, Sean McDermott, John Harbaugh and Kyle Shanahan.
Most advanced metrics would say that's wins against four top-10 quarterbacks, and those are certainly four of the league's top-10 head coaches.
There are just a few nitpicks when it comes to Kansas City's path.
First, the opponent records the Chiefs faced aren't all that impressive compared to the other teams on the list. There's no one, two, or even three-loss team on the schedule. Baltimore is best at 13-4, San Francisco was 12-5 and Buffalo and Miami both lost six times.
But you already know that's a nonsense argument. Baltimore and San Francisco were juggernauts all season — so much that both rested and lost a meaningless Week 18 game. The Ravens entered the AFC Championship Game with one of the best DVOAs in league history. In fact, Aaron Schatz ranks this the toughest Super Bowl path in history by DVOA. All four of those teams were better than their record.
Chiefs will have hardest SB path by opposing DVOA (4 games) if they beat SF. pic.twitter.com/kp8Dym8fvG
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) January 29, 2024
Kansas City did get a home game and a huge boost from the weather against a warm-weather team. The Chiefs also got a pretty huge health advantage in their first two games with Miami and Buffalo injuries besieging the defense. Weather also gave Kansas City a rest advantage against Buffalo.
So it goes. Every title team in every sport catches a few breaks along the way.
The final nitpick, though, is one the Chiefs can't do anything about.
Most of the teams above faced a championship gauntlet in part because they had to beat the best quarterback and/or best coach in the world at the time, sometimes two or three of each. The Chiefs faced a tough slate, but Kansas City can't beat the best quarterback or coach in the world — because the Chiefs have both.
To be the best, you've got to beat the best. And that's why there's one even more impressive Super Bowl-winning path out there …
1. 2007 New York Giants
Playoff Path: at 9-7 Tampa Bay, at 13-3 Dallas, at 13-3 Green Bay, 16-0 New England
The 2007 Giants entered the playoffs as a 10-6 wild-card team, but gave us a taste of what was to come when they pushed the 15-0 Patriots all the way in a three-point loss in the regular season finale. That left New England undefeated entering the postseason …
New York's first playoff opponent didn't put up much of a fight as Jeff Garcia and Jon Gruden's Bucs went down easy. Up next were Tony Romo and Terrell Owens, and the Cowboys had swept the Giants in the regular season. New York got its revenge, taking a lead in the final quarter and withstanding three Dallas pushes late.
That sent the Giants to Green Bay, another team that had beaten them in the regular season. Brett Favre finished second in MVP voting, and Mike McCarthy's team was 13-3 and the 1-seed. The game was back and forth all the way and the Packers tied it up late, but the Giants hit the winning kick in overtime to head to the Super Bowl.
There, they'd get a rematch with the Patriots, and the result was all but a foregone conclusion. The Patriots were undefeated, now 18-0. Brady was a near unanimous MVP with a record season, and Randy Moss had put up a record season of his own. New England closed as 12.5-point favorites.
You know what happened from there. The Giants defense hung tough like it had all postseason and the game was low-scoring and close. New England finally took the lead with under three minutes left, 14-10, and it looked like that would be that. But that's when David Tyree made his memorable helmet catch, and Eli Manning's touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress with 35 seconds left completed the shocking upset.
Three road games, two of them against big 13-3 favorites? Three revenge games against opponents who had already beaten them in the regular season? Brett Favre and Tony Romo? All cute stories and a nice enough path.
But only one team has ever reached the Super Bowl at 18-0 with a historically elite offense — and only one team has ever beat that team once they got there.
It's hard to have more of a final exclamation point than that to conclude a Super Bowl run, and that's why the Giants' path still outpaces the Chiefs'.
After all, it's hard to beat the GOAT when you might already be the next GOAT yourself.
