At last, the Super Bowl is here and a great game should be in store.
The Eagles have dominated their way through the playoffs winning their games by a combined score of 69-14. The Chiefs haven't dominated to the same degree, but they still have Patrick Mahomes and no one should doubt a team that just hosted its fifth straight AFC Championship.
For a same-game parlay, it’s best to pick bets that align with a game script. In this case, we are going to be focused on the Chiefs winning Super Bowl 57.
The Parlay (odds via FanDuel) (+1080)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown
- Isiah Pacheco Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
- Hurts Under 238.5 Passing Yards
- Chiefs Alt Spread -2.5
Pick: 4-Leg Same Game Parlay |
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Travis Kelce
Anytime Touchdown
Simply put, this is a playoff game and he is Travis Kelce.
Kelce has been an unstoppable force in his past eight playoff games as he's averaged 104 yards and scored in seven of those games. The Eagles' coverage unit is excellent because it has two corners who can match up with outside receivers. Unfortunately, for Philadelphia, Kelce does not line up outside.
That excellent coverage outside could play further into Kelce’s hands. The tight coverage will force Patrick Mahomes to ad lib and that is when the chemistry between he and Kelce takes over. Kelce’s touchdown against the Bengals was a perfect example. Kelce scored on a blown-up fake screen and simply knew where to be so Mahomes could find him for a touchdown.
With all of Philadelphia's talent upfront and on the backend, Kansas City will be forced to find creative or off-script ways to score. Both are good options for the star tight end.
Isiah Pacheco
Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
Against Cincinnati, the Chiefs found a brand-new toy for their offense. Despite only rushing for 26 yards, Isiah Pacheco made a huge impact with his pass catching. Pacheco set game game highs for receiving yards and receptions in the AFC Championship and looked menacing doing so.
His catches were simple check downs that turned into surprisingly big plays or kept drives alive thanks to his physical running style. The defensive line is one of the Eagles’ best units, so Patrick Mahomes will likely be under pressure once again.
Having a new safety valve that can turn nothing into something will be a huge value for the Chiefs' offense. On top of that, Andy Reid is one of the most creative play callers in the NFL. I have to think that after seeing Pacheco make multiple drive-saving plays, Reid will have a few tricks up his sleeve for the rookie back.
Jalen Hurts
Under 238.5 Passing Yards
We said our script is for a Chiefs win, and nothing helps that more than Jalen Hurts struggling to throw.
It may be his injury lingering or a result of the Eagles winning in blowout fashion, but Hurts has struggled throwing in the postseason. He is averaging 137.5 pass yards per game and he has had three of his worst five yards-per-attempt marks since returning.
Making matters worse, the Chiefs have been sneakily good against the pass. They are fourth in net yards per pass allowed and PFF ranked them third in coverage and sixth in pressure. Even if Hurts plays at 100%, passing this mark will be difficult given the Eagles' run-first style.
Kansas City Chiefs
Alternate Spread -2.5
There is no way we could write a positive Chiefs game script and not pick the Chiefs to cover the spread. In fact, we are taking an alternate spread of -2.5 to get a bigger payout than just taking the moneyline.
The game-changer when making this pick was the amount of adversity each team has faced. It’s not their fault, but we have not seen the Eagles win a tight game against a quality opponent. Games against the Colts and Bears saw the Eagles orchestrate comebacks, but there is a reason those teams are picking in the top five.
On the other hand, it feels like no lead is safe against Patrick Mahomes. We have seen him fight back, even in a previous Super Bowl, to overcome double-digit, fourth-quarter deficits. His success has gotten to the point that no matter how much time is left, we believe he'll figure out a way to score and win the game.
The lights are brighter and the pressure is bigger in the Super Bowl. This will be Jalen Hurts first time in the Super Bowl, while the Chiefs will be making their third trip in five years. Kansas City has the better quarterback, a more experienced roster in this type of game and a more experienced coach. Trust Kansas City’s experiences to be the difference.
