Chiefs vs 49ers Props: Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Scorers
As we dive into Chiefs vs 49ers props and Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Scorers, I want to clarify the criteria of this exercise.
Four of our experts were asked to draft the bets they wanted to make the most, not the players they thought were most likely to score a touchdown. While we all acknowledge that Christian McCaffrey is more likely to score a touchdown than, say, Noah Gray (spoiler!), the odds that the 49ers' star RB has in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market simply aren't worth betting.
That said, we have eight picks, two each from four of our experts. Check out their bets for the Super Bowl below.
1. WR Deebo Samuel +175
The versatility Samuel brings with a number close to 2-1 made this too hard to pass up. He's the perfect gadget receiver and high-volume threat to break opposing defenses.
It doesn’t matter where he lines up on the field, Samuel is explosive and near-impossible to defend. We saw in his return from injury back in Week 13 how dominant he can be when healthy. He hauled in a pair of receiving touchdowns and ran one in against the Eagles. Over the next four weeks, he added five more touchdowns.
Based on usage alone, this is among my favorite bets of the Super Bowl. He saw nine targets and three carries in the 49ers' win over the Lions, and I’m expecting a similar output on Sunday.
Despite missing a couple weeks in the regular season, Samuel still garnered 18 red-zone targets. That’s double the targets Brandon Aiyuk (nine) received and five more than George Kittle (13).
Oh, and by the way, Samuel has nine red-zone carries, too. Kyle Shanahan always finds a way to get the ball in his playmakers hands. Besides McCaffrey, there’s no player on the field as impactful as Samuel.
Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting coming online in 2024, you’ll be able to bet legally at major sportsbooks.
2. TE George Kittle +175
I’d be lying if I didn’t say I wanted Samuel for my first pick, but my next-favorite 49ers player to score has to be Kittle.
The best tight end in this game (yeah, I said it), will score on the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs play man coverage at one of the top rates in the NFL and Kittle has smashed man coverage. He's tied for the lead on the Niners with three receiving touchdowns against man and has seen his metrics — yards per route run (YPRR), average depth of target (ADOT) and first-read percentage — increased when facing this kind of defensive scheme.
For what it’s worth, Kittle scored against the Chiefs when they played during the 2022 regular season and also scored in Las Vegas when the Niners played the Raiders later that season.
Use ourBetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making your George Kittle pick.
3. QB Brock Purdy +900
By Nick Giffen
This is just a straight numbers play since I have Purdy projected at +725 as fair odds to find the end zone against Kansas City. Both of Purdy’s scores this year came on one-yard quarterback sneaks, which is likely what it’ll take for him to cash this bet.
That said, he has been more inclined to run in the playoffs. Last year, his two highest-yardage games came in the playoffs and this season, out of 18 games, his two playoff games rank second and fifth in yards, and first and third in rush attempts.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
4. RB Isiah Pacheco — Last Touchdown Scorer +500
By Billy Ward
With Pacheco slightly favored in the ATD market, I wanted to get a little more creative with my selection.
The 49ers are far harder to throw against than to run against, which should lead to more looks for Pacheco — especially if Kansas City is playing with a lead.
This is essentially a bet on the Chiefs to have the lead late in the game and to force-feed carries to Pacheco to keep the 49ers off the field. While the Chiefs are slight underdogs, that’s more likely than the +550 odds imply.
5. Kyle Juszczyk +1000
By Billy Ward
“The Juice” came close to finding the end zone in the NFC Championship Game as he took a pass down the right sideline past the Lions 10-yard line on one of his three touches. If there’s ever a time to dial up some trickery or misdirection for the fullback, it’s in the Super Bowl.
Juszczyk won’t see enough looks to truly justify this line, but the looks he gets are fairly high value (he also got a carry at the Detroit 5-yard line last game). He could potentially see even more red-zone/goal-line carries against a soft Chiefs run defense, especially if San Francisco is playing with a lead. That makes this a nice complement to the “Pacheco to score the last touchdown” bet above.
6. WR Brandon Aiyuk +175
By Nick Giffen
Gilles talks about how good Kittle is against man coverage, but Aiyuk is even better. He has a higher yards per route run despite a lower yards per catch because he’s targeted more than Kittle against man coverage.
Kittle is also due for some regression relative to Aiyuk, as Kittle’s 10.4 average yards after catch isn’t as sustainable as Aiyuk’s 6.9. By comparison, in 2022, Kittle’s average yards after catch vs. man coverage was 4.0, while Aiyuk's was 7.0, which is nearly identical to this year’s number.
The Chiefs do play man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL, but we have to remember that means they’re still playing zone coverage around two-thirds of the time, which means there will be more volume against zone — where Aiyuk easily outpaces Kittle. Aiyuk's 2.57 yards per route run vs. zone coverage is nearly three-quarters of a yard more than Kittle.
The Chiefs allow a couple extra yards and a fraction more volume to WR1s than TEs, so even the positional matchup slightly favors Aiyuk, yet we’re getting him at the same price as Kittle.
I have Aiyuk’s fair odds at +173, so we’re talking super thin margins at this point.
Bet the Super Bowl at bet365 with ourbet365 bonus code.
7. TE Travis Kelce — Chiefs First TD Scorer +330
I took this exact bet last year in the Super Bowl at +330, and it paid off in the first half.
Kelce simply has a strong playoff pedigree with 17 touchdowns in his past 15 playoff games since 2019. He also scored the Chiefs' first touchdown in five of their past six playoff games.
The Niners pass defense is obviously strong, but Kelce is is nearly matchup proof. Much was made about how Kelce may not find success against the Bills and Ravens, two quality defenses that only allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season. Well, Kelce finished with 16 catches and three touchdowns and scored the Chiefs' first touchdown in both games.
I’m not as interested in Kelce scoring the first touchdown of the game. When I bet this market, I like to have a bit of insurance, especially facing a Niners team that scored the first touchdown in 13 of its 19 games this year, including the playoffs (69%).
Maximize your Super Bowl bets with ourFanDuel promo code.
8. TE Noah Gray +950
If you’ve followed my picks on "The Touchdown Show," you know I always find a way to loop in a random tight end as one of my longshot picks. Staying true to my brand is what I care about most, well that and the fact that Ward took my favorite longshot — Juszczyk.
All eyes are going to be on Kelce because he’s the engine of the Chiefs passing game (and he's dating Taylor Swift, not sure if you heard). As Kansas City stumbled offensively to end the season, so did Kelce. His production was at an all-time low entering the playoffs, but he’s quickly put an end to that.
Anyways, that brings me to the guy no one is talking about, despite the fact that he plays about 60-70% of Kansas City's offensive snaps: Noah Gray!
Over the past two weeks, Gray has seen eight targets. A shift in focus on running the ball has led to a higher snap share for Gray, who is always used in two-tight end sets. The 49ers are so focused on slowing down Pacheco in the trenches and Kelce in short-yardage situations that Gray could easily slip through the cracks and collect his first postseason touchdown.
Gray has two targets inside the 10-yard line this postseason and I expect at least another opportunity come Sunday.
