Chiefs at Bears Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Chiefs -7
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The Kansas City Chiefs have moved from 4- to 7-point favorites for their Sunday Night Football showdown with the Chicago Bears thanks to a vast majority of bettors backing Patrick Mahomes and Co. on the road.
But is that the smartest play?
Our experts reveal how they're betting the primetime the spread, over/under and two props below.
Sean Koerner: Bears +7
One of my favorite aspects of late-season betting is when one game can have an impact on another game’s spread.
That what we're seeing with the Chiefs, who could have been playing for a first-round bye in Sunday night. But with the Patriots beating the Bills on Saturday, it all but ends the Chiefs’ chances of getting a first-round bye. The Patriots would have to lose at home to the Dolphins in Week 17, or the Ravens would have lose each of their last two games at the Browns and vs. Steelers for the Chiefs to secure that first-round bye. And both scenarios seem highly unlikely.
While I don’t think it will result in the Chiefs resting starters, it will significantly lower their motivation to win.
Koerner is 158-119-2 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Mike Randle: Under 45.5
If the Bears hope to keep this game close, they'll need to do so with a strong running game that limits Mahomes' opportunities. I expect Montgomery and Cohen to enable the Bears to control the ball to avoid the always-present Trubisky turnover factor.
As John mentioned, bad ATS have been historically live late in the season, and the Bears at home always profiles as a close game. While stopping the Chiefs offense is certainly challenging, only one of 14 quarterbacks to face the Bears has finished as a QB1.
I like the Bears to keep this game close, and while the spread isn't high enough to consider them to cover, I like their defense to limit the Chiefs and keep this game under 44.5.
Randle is 238-231-5 (50.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Koerner: David Montgomery Under 10.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
I love props like this — a line/price that's widely available and is offering a ton of sneaky value.
First, let's assess a good projection for his receptions tonight. Monty has seen his routes run per drop back dip the past couple games. His routes run in Weeks 12 (46%) and 13 (48%) were encouraging, however, in Week 14 he ran zero routes (which would make this bet an automatic winner!) and last week it was 24%. Tarik Cohen, in the meantime, averaged a steady 58% rate over this stretch as the Bears' preferred pass-catching back.
Tonight’s matchup against the Chiefs is a perfect one for them to attack with Montgomery on the ground and Cohen via the pass. I'm banking on Montgomery running a route on 30-35% of the routes, which would result in a 1.4 reception projection. I’m also have him in line with his 7.6 yards per catch in this game, which gives him a 11.4 receiving yards projection.
So why the under?
Well, I’ve mentioned it before, but his median catch this season is a bit lower at 5.5. This makes sense as yardages are heavily skewed due to the fact he's much more likely to catch a 30 yard pass than a -30 yard pass. Therefore it’s not what you would consider a normal distribution. This is what my simulator can help figure out.
In 10,000 simulations of tonight's game, he averages 11.4 yards with a median of 7. More importantly, he finishes under 10.5 yards 64.1% of the time.
This is one of those fun props that's so fun to bet on because I’m able to use my NFL analyst and math skills to find a ton of value that projections might gloss over.
Give me the under.
Randle: Patrick Mahomes Under 11.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
While Mahomes' rushing yards have increased recently, I expect a regression on the road against a tough Chicago defense.
The Bears have allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks on just the fourth-fewest attempts. With Mahomes experiencing a slight injury to his throwing hand last week against New England, I expect him to be even more cautious scrambling outside the pocket.
This game does little to improve the Chiefs' playoff standing, with the Ravens and Patriots locked into the top-two seeds.
Our projection of 9.9 rushing yards is 20% below the implied total of 12.2. I would bet this prop to -130.
