Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes square off for the third time in their careers on Sunday afternoon as the red-hot Chiefs look to win their sixth straight game in Cincinnati.
Burrow swept the two-game series against Mahomes last year, including an overtime win against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Both victories came on game-winning field goals.
It seems like Bengals running back Joe Mixon will be unavailable once again as he’s yet to clear concussion protocol. Ja’Marr Chase, meanwhile, is expected to play after missing the previous four games with a hip injury.
Can Mahomes get his revenge against Burrow, or will the Bengals continue to have the Chiefs' number?
Here’s a same-game parlay for the Sunday afternoon bout!
Chiefs -2.5
Third time's the charm, right?
Despite dealing with injuries all season long and trading Tyreek Hill to Miami, the Chiefs offense hasn’t skipped a beat. They’re No. 2 in Pass DVOA, and Isiah Pacheco's emergence has given KC a viable run game.
I’m not sure the Bengals defense will have an answer for this Chiefs offense that is first in EPA/Play and Success Rate. The Bengals should struggle to generate pressure as they’re 21st in Pass Rush Win Rate, as my colleague Anthony Dabbundo wrote about.
Bet Chiefs vs. Bengals at FanDuel
Kansas City shouldn’t struggle to put up points, and I believe the Bengals are a bit overvalued here. They’ll likely be without Mixon once again, and while Chase provides an offensive boost, I don’t think it’s enough to push the Bengals within two points.
The Chiefs defense is about league average in most metrics, but they are seventh in Coverage, per PFF, and 10th in Pass Rush. Their weakness is defending the run, but without Mixon, the Bengals will likely be forced to pass more frequently.
Both teams enter on win streaks, but I believe this is the perfect sell-high spot for the Bengals. Anytime I can grab Mahomes under the key number of three, I will gladly take it. KC is 17-5-1 with Mahomes under center as a three-point favorite or fewer.
Isiah Pacheco
Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
The Chiefs have seemingly found their RB1 of the future with Isiah Pacheco and are leaning into the ground game more often. In what should be a positive game script for KC, I’m backing Pacheco to go over his prop for the fourth straight week.
Pacheco has seen 15+ carries in three straight games and averaged 86 yards per game. The rookie is explosive and averages 4.7 yards per carry this season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on the injured reserve, but he slowly became a non-factor anyways. Jerick McKinnon is more of a third-down back, and Ronald Jones will be used sparingly. That leaves Pacheco with the lion’s share of carries.
This is a number that our Action Network projections have at 66 yards, so there’s over a 5% edge on his over. If the Chiefs can establish a lead — like they have in the previous two games against the Bengals — they should rely on the power back Pacheco to get the job done.
Tyler Boyd
Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
This is the perfect buy-low spot on Tyler Boyd, who is fresh off a 16-yard game against Tennessee. All the attention will be on Chase and Tee Higgins, leaving Boyd room to clean up underneath.
Boyd has cracked the 40-yard mark in six of his last nine games and fell two yards short of that mark against Cleveland. He gets over five targets per game as this number is too low in what should be a higher-scoring game.
Boyd has an aDOT (average depth of target) of 10.4 yards, and given his usage in the pass game, he should push over the 40-yard mark on Sunday.
Our Action Network projections have this closer to 43 yards, so there’s a slight edge to his over. Following the narrative of a Chiefs win, the Bengals will be forced into throwing more. Without Mixon, passing should see a slight boost, which puts value on the Cincinnati receivers.
The Parlay (+437)
- Chiefs -2.5
- Isiah Pacheco Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
- Tyler Boyd Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
