Chiefs vs Bills Props: Patrick Mahomes, Dalton Kincaid, Rashee Rice, Josh Allen
In the table below, you'll find my Chiefs vs Bills player props for the AFC Divisional Round. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific prop bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Chiefs vs. Bills
Dalton Kincaid
Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Big things were expected from Dalton Kincaid when he was selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and he’s more or less delivered. Kincaid has totaled over 700 yards and has three touchdowns on the season, with his latest coming against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round.
His receiving yards line stands at 38.5 yards for Sunday night, and I can’t see him not smashing that. It’s a line he’s covered in his last three games, racking up 230 yards in total.
Tight ends average 47 yards per game against the Chiefs, and with Kincaid involved in nearly double the amount of passing snaps as fellow tight end Dawson Knox was last week and having three times as many targets, I see the rookie covering once again.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Rashee Rice
Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
We’re taking on the receiving yards total of another rookie, this time on the Chiefs side, with over 69.5 receiving yards for Rashee Rice.
The rookie has been the Chiefs’ breakout star, and with Travis Kelce experiencing a down year by his high standards, it’s made Rice’s emergence even more important.
Rice has covered 69.5 yards in four of his last five games, and in the past two alone he’s had 127 and 130 receiving yards. Over his last five games, he’s had double-digit targets on three occasions and has become one of Patrick Mahomes' favorite targets.
Pick: Rashee Rice Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Josh Allen
Anytime Touchdown (-105)
You’re getting -105 on Josh Allen scoring a touchdown against the Chiefs, which feels like a steal when those odds imply just a 51.2% chance of that happening.
Allen rushed for a touchdown last week against the Steelers, his 16th of the season and his ninth in the last seven games.
There have been only five games all season in which the quarterback hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown, not to mention he also found the end zone against this Chiefs in Week 14.
Pick: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-105)
Patrick Mahomes
Anytime Touchdown (+550)
I’m also backing Patrick Mahomes to log a rushing touchdown. You’re getting a big number at +550, which feels like considerable value.
Mahomes hasn’t been a prolific scorer of rushing touchdowns during his career and hasn’t scored one since Week 16 of last season. That said, he has five rushing touchdowns in 15 playoff games.
When it’s the business end of the season, we often see Mahomes put the team on his back, and I suspect we’ll see that happen again in what should be a tight game.
