The Kansas City Chiefs look to avenge their Week 14 loss on Sunday night in a highly anticipated Divisional Round bout with the Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes enters in a rare spot — as an underdog — against a Bills team that has ripped off six straight wins.
Will the Bills defend their home field and hand Mahomes his first-ever Divisional Round loss? Or will the superstar quarterback dazzle and send the Bills packing?
Let’s build a Chiefs vs Bills same game parlay for the game of the week.
Chiefs vs Bills Same Game Parlay | +650 Divisional Round SGP (FanDuel)
- James Cook Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
- Mecole Hardman Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
- Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD
Note: If you would rather take Hardman over 14.5 receiving yards, it’s available at FanDuel, though the odds would drop the parlay to +552.
James Cook Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
It’s been a quiet few weeks for James Cook in the receiving game, but this is a perfect opportunity for him to explode. Just a month ago against the Chiefs, Cook hauled in five passes for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Joe Brady’s promotion to offensive coordinator has led to a burst in production for Cook, both on the ground and through the air. While he had four receptions last week against the Steelers, Cook had just five receiving yards.
We have finally seen the Bills commit to getting Cook the football, with limited snap counts to both Ty Johnson and Latavius Murray while the game was close. I believe Cook’s receiving yards are a bit too low here because of his last four games where he was held under each time.
But if you look at the 14 games prior, Cook has gone over this number nine times (64%). He also finished a half-yard shy once, too. The Chiefs are 21st in DVOA when defending passes to running backs, a positive toward Cook’s success.
This is a good spot to buy Cook in the passing game. In this rematch of AFC powerhouses, expect a close game script where Josh Allen will rely on his arm early and often. He had 42 pass attempts against the Chiefs earlier and we should see a similar output on Sunday night.
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Mecole Hardman Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs' receiving room has dealt with issues all season long. Whether it’s dropping a multitude of passes or injuries, it’s been a shorthanded and obvious weak spot for K.C.
Last week against the Dolphins, the Chiefs took a couple of deep shots to Mecole Hardman. While they didn’t land, it was the opportunities that Hardman created that I noticed in particular.
He finished that game with three receiving yards, but could’ve easily had 40-plus yards and a touchdown to his name. This is going to be an all-hands-on-deck type game for the Chiefs. Kadarius Toney is questionable and could miss his fifth straight game, which would only boost Hardman’s potential.
I’m expecting Rashee Rice to command extra attention on Sunday, especially if Rasul Douglas returns. Travis Kelce will also be top of mind, which opens the opportunity for others to slide in and produce. Enter Hardman, who has a long-standing connection with Mahomes.
The Bills are also ravaged by injury. Their linebacking corps is as thin as could be and without Christian Benford, this team can be taken advantage of in the passing game. We saw it with the Steelers, who had some life as the injuries piled up for Buffalo.
This number is just too low in a high-stakes game for a player who not only has the veteran experience, but has seen extra targets thrown his way of late. Back Hardman to eclipse this over.
Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD
Isiah Pacheco has cemented himself as the top dog in the Chiefs backfield and over the last two months we’ve seen why. The second-year pro has found the end zone in each of his last five games and most recently dominated between the trenches against the Dolphins in the Wild Card Round.
In a high-scoring bout between two offenses that should be able to move the football, I like Pacheco’s chances of finding the end zone again. One key piece was missing from that 20-17 Bills win over the Chiefs a little over a month ago — no Pacheco.
Jerick McKinnon rushed for a touchdown in that loss, but there was little production in the run game to be had for K.C. Pacheco provides an extra level for the Chiefs. Against a Bills linebacking group that is banged up, we could see plenty of explosives and success in medium distances.
A running back has scored a touchdown against the Bills in nine of their last 15 games (60%). This is the perfect opportunity to continue to back Pacheco, who has established himself as a reliable red-zone threat and elite scorer in K.C.’s offense.
