Kadarius Toney
Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
We've seen Toney settle into a pretty defined role this season. He's typically going to run a route on 35-40% of Patrick Mahomes' dropbacks, and he's going to be targeted at a high rate on those routes, around 33% of the time so far this season.
However, those targets have been mostly near the line of scrimmage. His 2.2 average depth of target is the lowest of all qualified wide receivers and tight ends. He's essentially been more of a pass-catching running back for the Chiefs.
Toney's limited playing time makes it tougher for him to regularly clear this number, having done so just once in five games so far this year.
We do have to be careful about backing unders against this Broncos defense, which has been one of the worst in the NFL in nearly every facet this season.
Since Toney draws half of his targets on screen passes, I looked at how Denver has fared against those this season. It's a small sample size, but the Broncos have allowed the sixth-lowest yards per reception on wide receiver screens (2.5) this season. We also may see Toney get a couple of designed runs called for him in this game, which sometimes can be a more effective way to get the ball in his hands given his issues with drops this season.
I'm projecting his median closer to 22.5 for this game. There's a 64.5% chance he will stay under 29.5, and I have him at a 60% chance of staying under 26.5.
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