Primetime unders have been the story of the 2022 season, but Sunday night sets up as a game with potential fireworks. It’s Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs taking on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two teams looking to bounce back after tough losses last week.
The Chiefs fell to the winless Colts while the Bucs came up just short of a comeback against the Packers.
Where is the edge on Sunday night? How should you attack the player prop market? I’ve got that covered in a primetime same game parlay with a juicy 20/1 payout:
Buccaneers Moneyline (-116)
This is the perfect spot to fade the public and back Tom Brady at home off a loss.
The trends back Tampa here. Off a loss, Brady is 7-2 both SU and ATS as a Buc. And off a loss after scoring 14 points or fewer in the previous game over the last 20 years, Brady is 21-2 SU.
Opening as an underdog, the number quickly flipped in favor of Tampa. In three primetime matchups between Brady and Mahomes, Brady has won all three straight up.
The Buccaneers defense is also a tough matchup for Mahomes. They are the second-ranked defense per PFF and thrive in pass coverage. The passing game is the Chiefs’ strength, and they have struggled establishing the run.
Jerick McKinnon has slowly begun to outsnap Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and neither have been particularly effective. Edwards-Helaire had 0 yards on seven rushes last week.
While the Chiefs are a top-10 defense as well, they’re just 17th against the rush, per PFF. That plays well into Leonard Fournette’s favor. We should see more of Fournette’s 127-yard performance against the Cowboys in Week 1 as opposed to his 65 yards on 24 carries the week after.
Mike Evans also returns from suspension, giving the Buccaneers receiving corps a huge boost, too. Even with the injuries piling up, we should see Russell Gage back and possibly even Julio Jones making his return.
Trust Brady at home to get the job done.
Juju Smith-Schuster
Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Juju Smith-Schuster has sneakily provided stability for the Chiefs offense as he has 14 receptions for 178 yards through three games in Kansas City. While he hasn’t found the endzone, he’s been a constant threat over the middle and is the second-most targeted receiver behind Travis Kelce.
He isn’t a home-run receiver and is instead extremely reliable in short-to-medium distances. Smith-Schuster has eclipsed this 50.5 number two out of three times so far this season — both times by 25-plus yards.
Of the Chiefs wide receivers, Smith-Schuster is the most consistent and the one I trust the most. Following the narrative of a Bucs win, the Chiefs will be in more passing situations — they already are a pass-heavy offense — benefitting Smith-Schuster and making him undervalued on Sunday.
Leonard Fournette
Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
Sunday night sets up to be the perfect Leonard Fournette game. As I mentioned earlier, he draws a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that has struggled against the run in the opening three weeks.
With no competition as the workhorse of this offense, we should see 15-20 carries out of the running back. This number has dropped because of his 100 yards on 36 carries over the last two weeks, but this is a bounce back spot if I’ve ever seen one.
Action Labs projects Fournette for 76 rushing yards, which is over a six percent edge over his current number.
This is one of my favorite props of the Sunday slate and also meshes perfectly with the developing narrative of a Buccaneers win.
Mecole Hardman
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+290)
Ah, yes, we'll throw in a longshot anytime touchdown scorer to juice the odds of the same game parlay. The fourth leg juices this parlay above 20/1, and I like it for multiple reasons.
Mecole Hardman is the most targeted Chief in the red zone (3) and plays just as many snaps as Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s going to be involved in the offense and will run multiple routes inside the 20 — if and when the Chiefs get there.
Valdes-Scantling also carries an injury into Sunday night, though it’s expected he will play. He may be limited throughout, which should lead to more snaps and opportunities for Hardman.
Hardman is the veteran receiver in this offense and could also see use in the rushing game, which can only benefit his chances of scoring. In what should be a close game with plenty of red zone opportunities, taking a shot at Hardman here is the perfect finale to this four-leg same game parlay.
The Parlay (+2054)
- Buccaneers ML (-116)
- Juju Smith-Schuster Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Leonard Fournette Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
- Mecole Hardman Anytime TD (+290)
