The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers meet in one of the season's most entertaining Sunday Night Football games.
The Chargers also played on Sunday Night Football last week and lost to the 49ers in an ugly football game. The offense looks broken without its top two receivers being healthy.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs' offense is humming. Kansas City has won five of its past six games and boasts the most efficient offense in the NFL.
So, which team has the edge?
Actually, let's skip the side altogether and target some player props.
If you’re looking for different ways to bet on NFL player props, I’d recommend PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including states where online betting is unavailable.
Let’s dive into my Sunday Night Football PrizePicks card.
Justin Herbert
Over/Under 272.5 Passing Yards
The Chargers' offense has been Jekyll and Hyde this year. The receiver room is banged up, Justin Herbert gets overwhelmed easily and people are questioning Brandon Staley’s decision making.
The offense has fallen to 20th in EPA per play and 24th in DVOA.
Again, the receivers are banged up. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are hurt, and although both are questionable for Sunday, I doubt either is 100%.
But Herbert has been struggling either way. He’s 19th in EPA+CPOE composite and trending down week over week. He’s completing a fair amount of passes, but his efficiency and explosiveness have fallen off a cliff without his top two receivers.
As a result, Herbert has gone under his passing yards total in four of his past five games. He looked okay last week, but still finished with just 180 passing yards.
I don’t see Herbert improving on those numbers this week. Herbert’s aDOT has fallen off a cliff, as he’s averaging only 6.7 air yards per target. The Chiefs' defense has been vulnerable to explosive plays, but has been good underneath and ranks 14th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Herbert for just 267.5 passing yards, providing us with 13 yards of edge over the PrizePicks line.
Considering the Chargers' offensive situation, I’m happy to fade Herbert in primetime for the second straight week.
Pick: Under 272.5 Passing Yards
Austin Ekeler
Over/Under 5.5 Receptions
Austin Ekeler is unstoppable.
Ekeler is on pace for 120 receptions this season and is close to amassing 900 scrimmage yards. He’s picked up 36 receptions in just his past four games.
As a result, Ekeler has cashed his receptions prop in four straight games and in seven of nine games this season.
Justin Herbert’s aDOT and efficiency have dropped in recent weeks. Because his top two receivers are out, Herbert has been forced to dump the ball underneath to Ekeler.
Ekeler has taken full advantage of the opportunities.
Austin Ekeler is currently the fantasy football PPR RB1. If you took away every single one of his rush attempts he would still be the RB15.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 15, 2022
Additionally, Ekeler matches up well with Kansas City. The Chiefs are 26th in Pass Defense DVOA against running backs, allowing a league-high 8.6 pass attempts per game to halfbacks.
Ekeler should get all the targets tonight, especially if the Chargers’ top wide receivers remain out.
I’m willing to bet Ekeler crushes this PrizePicks receptions line for the fifth straight week. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him for 6.2 receptions on Sunday Night Football, giving us plenty of value to bet this line on PrizePicks.
Pick: Over 5.5 Receptions
