In an AFC West clash, the Kansas City Chiefs head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers. It’ll be back-to-back primetime bouts for Justin Herbert and co., who dropped last week’s game to the 49ers.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, took down the Jacksonville Jaguars and enter as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes is also the current MVP favorite.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football:
Los Angeles
+5.5
The Chargers are slowly getting back to full health and continue to be undervalued in the market.
Justin Herbert is finally getting back his weapons as Mike Williams and Keenan Allen make their long-awaited return, while Austin Ekeler remains a staple. Playing at home, this game has "down to the wire" written all over it.
While it took a backdoor touchdown from Joshua Palmer to secure the cover on the road against K.C. in Week 2, the Chargers haven’t lost by more than a score to their rival since 2019.
As the Chargers get healthy, the Chiefs have suffered bad injury luck over the last couple weeks. Mecole Hardman is on injured reserve and JuJu Smith-Schuster is out with a concussion. That puts a lot of pressure on Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, both of which are far from No. 1 receivers.
Travis Kelce will likely be force fed, but he only put up 51 receiving yards awhen these teams met the first time. But the bigger concern and why I think the Chargers ultimately cover is the Chiefs defense.
Criticism of Justin Herbert is warranted. He has struggled to produce without his big guns. But they’re back, and draw a Chiefs defense that ranks 17th, per PFF. Allen did not play in the first game this season, but we did see Williams torch the secondary for 113 yards.
Herbert should be able to move the ball down the field against, and like the Chargers always do, the game should be tight until the end. I’m going to continue to fade Mahomes as a heavy favorite, especially after a comeback win against Tennessee last week.
The public perception is much higher on K.C. than L.A., which means this is the perfect spot to buy the dip on the Chargers at home.
Trends back them up, too. As a favorite of at least -3.5, Mahomes is a surprising 28-31-1 ATS and just 1-5 ATS after a win.
Austin Ekeler
Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
I’m going back to the well here with Ekeler. He should’ve cleared this number last week, but a late drop held him just under.
The return of Williams and Allen actually benefits him. Less attention will be sent toward one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. Ekeler has hauled in at least seven receptions over the last four games.
Against Kansas City in Week 2, Ekeler finished with nine catches for 55 yards. He’s the safety valve for Herbert and is a vital part of this offense.
The Chiefs are also the second-worst team when it comes to defending running backs in the passing game, giving up an average of seven receptions for 50.6 yards.
Very few times will a non-Ekeler Chargers running back catch a pass. In what should be a trailing game script, he should get plenty of action. He has gone over this number in five of nine games, but has gone two straight without eclipsing the 40-yard mark.
Back Ekeler against a spotty Chiefs defense that has plenty of issues that should be on display.
Justin Watson
Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
Rather than heading in the popular direction and backing Kadarius Toney, I’m instead looking to Justin Watson.
There are a lot of snaps and targets to be had with the absences of Smith-Schuster and Hardman, and Watson could be a primary beneficiary. While Toney stole the show last week, it was actually Watson who finished second among all wide receivers in snaps (46).
In Week 9, Watson was targeted five times and hauled in two of them for 37 yards. In Week 10, he caught his only target — a 12-yard pass — in the win against Jacksonville.
With the attention on Kelce and Toney, Watson is undervalued. Our Action Network projections estimate Watson for 26.8 receiving yards, nearly a 3% edge from the current number.
I expect a similar snap count for Watson, who likely needs just two catches to go over this number. For what it’s worth, of his seven receptions, two have gone for over 22.5.
Back Watson’s over in a pass-heavy scheme with one of the best quarterbacks in football.
The Parlay (+486)
- Chargers +5.5 (-115)
- A. Ekeler Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- J. Watson Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
