The NFL season concludes on Sunday, Feb. 9, when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl at the Caesars Superdome. Super Bowl 59 kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on FOX, and you can stream it live on Tubi.
Naturally, I have a number of Chiefs vs. Eagles anytime touchdown scorers for Super Bowl 59. Below, you can find an array of TD picks and analysis, plus a +7000 Anytime TD parlay of my three favorite Super Bowl TD picks.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Anytime Touchdown Scorers
- Dallas Goedert (+350; bet365)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (+600; BetMGM)
- Justin Watson (+1200; BetMGM)
- Kareem Hunt 1st-Half TD (+425; bet365)
- Jalen Hurts 2+ TDs (+625; BetMGM)
- Xavier Worthy (+155; DraftKings)
Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+350)
I wasted no time getting in my first anytime TD bet for the Chiefs vs. EaglesSuper Bowl: Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (+350) at bet365.
Goedert has been the recipient of plenty of volume for a while now – dating back to the 2022 playoffs, he has at least four catches in eight straight playoff games with a touchdown in three of them. Two years ago when these teams played in the Super Bowl, Goedert had six catches on seven targets, with two of those in the red zone. In this year’s playoffs, he has averaged over 90% of snaps played
Eagles TE2 Grant Calcaterra hasn’t been much of a threat in the passing game either with only one target through three playoff games.
Another factor I like is the matchup – the Chiefs play man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL and had some struggles against the TE position throughout the regular season. Kansas City ranked bottom five in targets, catches and yards to TEs with five TDs allowed.
Goedert has thrived facing man defense this season and ranks second on the Eagles in target share (26%) and yards per route run (3.43), which are elite numbers despite being much lower than WR1 AJ Brown.
I expected odds for Goedert closer to +290. With most Eagles TD props likely to be steamed as we get closer to kickoff, this is my favorite TD bet on the board.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (+600) & Justin Watson (+1200)
When Anytime TD odds came out for Super Bowl LIX, my initial instinct was to sit tight. The Chiefs are playing in their third straight Super Bowl and while there were a few players I like on their side, I needed to wait for the market to mature.
Now, my sights are set on two Chiefs WRs I think could be in line for some big plays – JuJu Smith-Schuster (+600) and Justin Watson (+1200).
Outside of rookie WR Xavier Worthy, there hasn’t been much consistency for Chiefs pass-catchers when it comes to targets and snaps. But one thing we have seen is a role increase for Smith-Schuster, who had two TDs on the season and played the third-most snaps of any Chiefs receiver through two playoff games.
Naturally, the first observation about Smith-Schuster and Watson is that neither has caught a TD in the playoffs nor have they seen many targets. I overlooked long-shot TD bets on the Chiefs side in each of the last two Super Bowls and left some potential winnings on the table – I’m not doing that again.
Periphery receivers like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney came up big in 2023 while Mecole Hardman was left for dead after leaving the Jets only to end up catching the game-winning touchdown against San Francisco in last year’s Super Bowl. The Chiefs aren’t afraid in big moments to spread the ball around and get players we’ve forgotten about involved.
It’s worth noting that each of those three players were priced at +500 or better to score an Anytime TD in the Super Bowl, so my angle this time around is to play the medium target (Smith-Schuster) and the deep threat (Watson) for a half-unit each and see if we can get at least one to be a winner.
Kareem Hunt 1st-Half TD (+425)
While I expect Isiah Pacheco to see some work in this game, the Chiefs have made it quite clear that Kareem Hunt is their bell cow running back.
In the last nine games (including the playoffs) since Pacheco returned from injury, Hunt has outpaced Pacheco in carries in seven of those games, and, most importantly, in red-zone carries (13 for Hunt and six for Pacheco).
The Chiefs’ running game has been set with Hunt so far in the playoffs and to close the season. He was 10th in the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line (14), which is more than other prized running backs like Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon or Bijan Robinson. Hunt’s 14 carries in that spot are more than the rest of the Chiefs’ skill players combined (11).
Hunt has scored in four straight games with a first-half TD in three of them, and two of those games came against a top-three rush defense in the Texans. For the season, Hunt has scored in six of 13 games and eight of 15 games including the playoffs. Six of those eight touchdowns came in the first half
The Eagles’ run defense has been stellar all season and the Chiefs tend to get down in these types of games before roaring back with their passing game. If we see a gamescript like this, then Hunt and the Chiefs’ run game may be used sparingly compared to when it’s a neutral script to start the game.
If you want to take Hunt’s Anytime TD prop at +150 instead, I’m fine with that – but Hunt’s 1H TD prop is how I’d play him.
Jalen Hurts 2+ TDs (+600)
