We get more and more Super Bowl markets as we get further away from the conference championships and closer to the game itself. I've continued scouring the market and found three more picks after my first trio last week.
The first one is by no means an exotic market, but the other two are bets you'll only be able to make for the Super Bowl. That's why we love this game.
Let's get this shmoney!
Chiefs Moneyline (-120)
Patrick Mahomes is 28-9-1 against the spread as a favorite of three or fewer points or an underdog, and he’s covering by 4.4 points per game. He’s also 9-2 in the playoffs in that spot.
Looking at the NFC Championship Game, the Commanders were hanging around, especially in the first half, outside of their turnovers. You could see that with a good quarterback who can make some throws and evade pressure that the Eagles defense could struggle. Washington just couldn’t overcome its turnovers, something that is less likely to be a problem for the Chiefs.
The Eagles offense is coming off 55 points against the Commanders, a monster showing. I don’t think there’s anything wrong in terms of an injury to Jalen Hurts, but there are a few things worth noting.
First, Hurts was rusty against the Packers. The Eagles scored 22 points, and seven of those came off Green Bay fumbling the opening kickoff and giving them a short field. Philadelphia really had a hard time putting that game away.
Then against the Rams, a mediocre defense, Hurts was getting sacked a ton but still put up a decent point total. Then, in their last game, the Eagles scored 55 against the worst defense of the bunch.
Simply put, I don’t rate this Eagles offense as highly as many do and think Steve Spagnuolo will be able to game plan that unit to hold it to a respectable total.
I think it will be a close game, but I don't think that Saquon is as likely to bust off a big run here. I trust Spagnuolo to come in and give the Eagles run game his best shot. I trust him in big spots like this.
Chiefs Under 115.5 Team Rushing Yards (-110)
I have the Chiefs projected for about 100 rushing yards, so I think this line is inflated. You’re essentially banking on a return to explosive form from somebody in this backfield.
Let’s look at this by the numbers.
Kansas City has had 101 or fewer rushing yards in half of Patrick Mahomes’ starts this season. The Eagles defense has been good against the run and is allowing 104.4 yards per game on the ground. Only five times has Philly given up more than 113 rushing yards in a game.
The Chiefs have had to move their offensive line around with Joe Thuney going from guard to tackle, and his run blocking has plummeted as a result. This isn’t the same run game as it was earlier in the season. Kansas City will likely have some creative concepts and get Xavier Worthy or Marquise Brown involved a bit, but the guys we can rely on for this, specifically Isiah Pacheco, have struggled.
Also, there is a kneel-down aspect to this.
If the Chiefs are winning and have the ball as the game winds down, Mahomes doesn’t tend to just take quick knees. His focus is on taking as many seconds off the clock as possible. That sometimes means moving backwards and losing more yards than a typical kneel-down would.
Mahomes is projected for about 30 yards, while you’d expect Kareem Hunt to have between 40-45 and Pacheco around 20. Worthy will get a carry or two, as well. That’s not getting you to 115 rushing yards.
Game Under 5.5 Total Sacks (-125)
I have this one as closer to -200.
Overall, both of these offenses tend to have the quarterback get rid of the ball quicker than most. Many will point to the Divisional Round when Jalen Hurts was sacked nine times by the Rams. He got the ball out in 2.96 seconds on average, which was only the second time since Week 8 that number was below 3 seconds for him.
I think that will be a big talking point for the Eagles offense here, getting the ball out of Hurts’ hands quickly. You know that will be the case for the Chiefs offense, which has changed its ways a bit of late.
The one thing Kansas City has done consistently is more toward an offense that leans heavily on the short-passing game. Mahomes is consistently getting the ball out of his hand in below 2.8 seconds, which is more by design than it is because of the pressure he’s facing.
When you work out all of the probabilities, you’re going to get five or few sacks quite often. There were only two sacks when these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, and that was with the Eagles throwing the ball a lot more than they had in the past.
I just don't think this is a game where the Eagles offense will set up to let Hurts get sacked five or six times. This line is inflated, which is why I’m looking to the under.
