You may not be excited for a rematch between the Chiefs and Eagles, but it's a fascinating Super Bowl matchup with all sorts of angles and all the usual exotics and long shots. I've got 39 Super Bowl picks below — yes, you read that right, and yes, I'm really betting all of them.
If you're looking for a side, props, escalators, long shots, same-game parlays (SGPs), or even the coin toss, I've got you covered. For some bets, you can find more in-depth articles linked with a longer case, but all my picks are here in one place.
Always use our tools to shop around for the best lines available since these bets were made last week, but if you like the angle and your line is close, fire away. Pick your favorite bets to tail, settle in, and let's have some fun and enjoy Super Bowl 59.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Predictions: Kansas City Will Win
The story of this Super Bowl was clear from the jump: Do you want the far superior roster or the far superior quarterback?
The margins are really tight. Both teams are great, my two highest power ratings in football, and the line near a pick'em make it clear this could go either way.
Philadelphia's defense is the best unit on the field. Vic Fangio's defense takes away the deep ball and the middle of the field and forces opponents to play mistake-free football on long drives. Of course, that's exactly what Patrick Mahomes is these days. Expect a pass-heavy script from Kansas City with plenty of short stuff to Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are too good to not get theirs, but Philadelphia's defense will make them earn it.
I'm much more interested in the other side of the ball, since I trust the Eagles offense by far the least of any unit in this game.
Philadelphia's offense is largely untested after facing by far the softest defensive schedule in the league, with just four games all season against top-12 defenses by DVOA. The Eagles have only trailed in the fourth quarter in two of their past 13 games, for four minutes total.
Really feels like this isn’t being talked about enough leading up to the Super Bowl. pic.twitter.com/AUjRVEZ2AD
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) February 8, 2025
It's no secret Philadelphia wants to win by running the football with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, but the Chiefs run defense looks up to the task. It ranked top eight in the NFL in yards per carry, yards per game, and yards before contact and was top three in yards after contact and explosive run rate allowed. The Chiefs didn't allow a 100-yard RB all season and haven't allowed a 100-yard runner in the playoffs in 18 games.
If Philly can't win by running, then it comes down to Hurts versus Mahomes — and maybe more importantly, Hurts versus Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Hurts ranked 16th by DVOA against the blitz and was bottom six among all qualifying quarterbacks in sack rate, EPA, and Success Rate when pressured. Spags is a master of bringing the blitz and should be able to target Hurts with his tendency to roll right. Hurts also ranked top three by EPA and Success Rate against man coverage but outside the top 20 against zone, so expect Spagnuolo to mix up his coverages and keep Hurts off kilter all game.
This Eagles offense is pretty untested, and it hasn't trailed against a good defense all season. Philadelphia ranked bottom 10 offensively by DVOA on third downs. The Chiefs defense was top five on third downs, as it usually is. If Spags and this defense can consistently get the Eagles to third down, Kansas City will win.
The Chiefs will force Hurts to beat them. If it's close late and Mahomes has the ball, you have to like the Chiefs. And if it's close but Hurts has the ball — you have to like Spags and the Chiefs there too.
For his career, Mahomes is 28-9-1 ATS (76%) as a three-point favorite or anything worse, and he's a perfect 8-0 ATS and SU in the playoffs when that drops under three like it is here. Andy Reid is 29-3 with 13+ days of prep and either Mahomes or Donovan McNabb at QB. Reid, Spagnuolo, and Mahomes have just done it too often to doubt at this stage.
The way this line has moved, it could close at a pick'em or even with the Chiefs as underdogs. Even if the Chiefs are slight favorites, you can just play the spread. Super Bowl winners in games with a spread of four or less are a perfect 23-0 ATS.
My new favorite way to bet the Chiefs is to win from behind, a bet we just hit last round at +195 against Buffalo.
Mahomes has played 20 career playoff games. The Chiefs trailed at some point but won anyway in 10 of those games. Take out the three losses, and 10 of Mahomes' 17 playoff wins (59%) have been comeback wins, including all three Super Bowl victories.
And is it any wonder? Mahomes has trailed by one score in nine playoff games. He led the Chiefs on scoring drives in 13 of 14 possessions in that spot and helped the Chiefs win six of the nine games and push two others to overtime.
I love Chiefs to win from behind at +175 (DraftKings). If you can't bet that, just take Kansas City -1 (-105, Caesars).
The Chiefs are inevitable. When the margins are this tight, just take Mahomes.
Bets in this section:
- Chiefs -1 (1 unit, -105, Caesars)
- Chiefs to win from behind (1 unit, +175, DraftKings)
Sportsbooks Got Super Bowl Rushing Props All Wrong
The Eagles want to run but the Chiefs defense will make life difficult. That's why the Super Bowl rushing props are priced all wrong.
Kansas City allowed the third-fewest yards per game to RBs this season at 70 YPG, and the Chiefs didn't allow a 60-yard RB until Week 13 and didn't see any opposing RB top 16 carries all year until the playoffs. The Chiefs led the league in tackling ability, per PFF, and allowed only six runs all season over 25 yards, three of them on quarterback scrambles.
Spagnuolo will not let Philly win this game just by running, and the Chiefs are built to not allow those big explosive runs to Saquon Barkley. That means Barkley's prop expectations of around 22 carries for 113 yards look way off.
In particular, I love Barkley's under 25.5 longest rush prop. Barkley had huge numbers this season but popped many of his biggest plays and numbers against just a few really bad defenses.
But while I don't expect Barkley to go on a long run, I do expect both quarterbacks to be a serious threat on the ground.
Both Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts will make key plays with their feet when plays break down. I'm betting both QB longest rush overs and expect one of them to have the longest rush of the game.
Bets in this section:
- Saquon Barkley longest rush under 25.5 yards (1 unit, -110, DraftKings)
- Patrick Mahomes longest rush over 11.5 yards (1 unit, -115, bet365)
- Mahomes 20+ longest rush (0.5 units, +300, bet365)
- Jalen Hurts longest rush over 11.5 yards (1 unit, -114, FanDuel)
- Hurts 20+ longest rush (0.25 units, +250, Caesars)
- Mobile QBs Special: both Mahomes and Hurts 20+ rush (0.1 units, +1000, DraftKings)
- Mahomes longest rush of game (0.5 units, +1100, ESPN Bet)
- Hurts longest rush of game (0.5 units, +1000, BetRivers)
Xavier Worthy Is the Chiefs' X-Factor
Kansas City is not a great rushing team and will likely run just enough to keep Philadelphia honest. The Chiefs "run the ball" with a barrage of quick, short passes.
The Eagles ranked No. 1 by DVOA against deep passes and passes over the middle of the field, and they were top five against tight ends and running backs in the passing game. Vic Fangio's defense takes away huge swaths of the field by playing a ton of zone, over two-thirds of its snaps. You attack Cover 3 with speedy horizontal stretch plays, and you beat Cover 4 and 6 in the flats.
That means it's Xavier Worthy season for Kansas City.
This season, 62 of 70 Worthy receptions were classified as short or behind the line of scrimmage. He was graded over 90 at PFF in both areas with 7.5 yards after the catch on average, and he ranked 99th percentile on EPA in passes to the flats. The Chiefs were the best team in the league by EPA on quick passes, and Worthy was targeted on almost a third of those plays late.
The Chiefs totally changed how they used the rookie Worthy midseason.
Through Week 12, Worthy had just a 14% target share and an average depth of target (aDOT) over 12. But from Week 13 forward, Worthy's aDOT dropped below six and his target share leapt to 23%. His snap rate jumped to over 80% in the same stretch, and his catch rate skyrocketed from 53% to 76%.
Since Week 13, Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs in receptions, receiving yards, routes runs, first-read targets, and yards after the catch. He has become the focal point of this offense, and his speed stretching the field vertically will be absolutely key against this Eagles zone defense.
One similar stylistic player that faced the Eagles twice this year was Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson. He had 20 targets in two games against Philadelphia, racking up six and 10 receptions and seeing more catches and targets than stud rookie Malik Nabers in both games. Expect similar volume potential from Worthy in the Super Bowl.
Worthy averaged 6.4 catches over his last five games with at least 32 yards after the catch in all five and an average of 46. In four of those five games, he had at least six catches, 75 rushing + receiving yards, and a touchdown.
We've been playing Worthy receptions escalator all playoffs, so why stop now?
Since most of Worthy's catches come so close to the line of scrimmage, I want receptions, not yards.
Start with the main line of over 5.5 receptions at plus money (+120, bet365), and then take the escalator. Play 7+ catches (+225, bet365) and 8+ as well (+425, bet365), since he's averaging 8.8 targets over his last five games on almost all short, catchable balls.
The Chiefs have been using Worthy's speed threat to take advantage of the extra horizontal spacing not available vertically in the red zone too, and Worthy is scoring touchdowns. Play an anytime touchdown at +155 (DraftKings), and place a sprinkle on two scores at +1400 (BetMGM).
Worthy's rushing prop has been really popular too at over 5.5 yards. He's going to get at least one carry in the Super Bowl, and Worthy has 5+ rushing yards in 11 of 14 games with a carry this season. I prefer over 64.5 rushing + receiving yards if you want a yardage angle.
I do like one other angle. Worthy had that controversial 26-yard contested catch against Buffalo, but otherwise, he hasn't topped 21 yards on a catch in seven games. Again, it's volume on short stuff, not deep balls down the field.
Worthy's longest reception prop sits at 21.5, and I like the under even with expectations of a big Worthy game. If you parlay that with some of the angles above, books have to spike our price for negative correlation. Play over 5.5 receptions with under 21.5 longest reception at +411 (FanDuel).
Bets in this section:
- Xavier Worthy over 5.5 receptions (1 unit, +120, bet365)
- Worthy receptions escalator: 7+ Receptions (0.35 units, +225, bet365), 8+ (0.15 units, +425)
- Worthy anytime touchdown (0.65 units, +165, DraftKings) and 2 TDs (0.1 units, +1500, BetMGM)
- Worthy under 21.5 longest catch & over 5.5 receptions SGP (0.25 units, +411, FanDuel)
Super Bowl Defensive Props
In almost every Super Bowl, we focus on the quarterbacks and the offenses — but for whatever reason, defenses seem to find the end zone at outlandish, outsize rates in the Super Bowl.
We've seen 22 defensive touchdowns in 58 Super Bowls, with at least one by the winning team in 16 of them (28%). In fact, we just saw that exact scenario the last time these teams met when Chiefs LB Nick Bolton returned a Hurts fumble for a score, then appeared to add a second TD later before it was overturned in a split-second review decision.
Whether it's extra preparation from the defense or desperation in the final game of the season, defenses consistently make big plays in the end zone, and defenders can sometimes steal MVP too with one big play. We've had 10 defensive MVPs, almost one in every six Super Bowls.
I always bet on defense in every Super Bowl, regardless of matchup. I dug deep into the numbers here, and these are my bets:
Bets in this section:
- Chiefs D/ST anytime TD & Chiefs ML (0.5 units, +850, DraftKings)
- Eagles D/ST anytime TD & Eagles ML (0.5 units, +900, DraftKings)
- Defensive lineman to win Super Bowl MVP (0.25 units, +4400, FanDuel)
- Linebacker to win Super Bowl MVP (0.25 units, +7000, FanDuel)
- Defensive back to win Super Bowl MVP (0.25 units, +9000, FanDuel)
Super Bowl MVP Picks
It's no secret that Super Bowl MVP typically goes to the winning quarterback. That's been the case in 57% of all Super Bowls, including 13 of the last 18 (72%).
Mahomes is the heavy MVP favorite for a reason, but it's a surprise to see Barkley ahead of Hurts in odds. Barkley is the first non-QB with top-two MVP odds since 2003.
I can't make a case for betting either Mahomes or Barkley at their posted numbers. Mahomes would have to win MVP in over 85% of all Chiefs Super Bowl wins to have value, too high even for him, and Barkley would have to win in over half of all Eagles victories, just too big an ask for an RB in a tough matchup.
Betting is about finding edges, not predicting winners. My biggest edge is on Hurts. If I'm right that this game comes down to Hurts needing to beat Spags and Mahomes, I could still be wrong about his inability to do so.
I'm betting Hurts to win Super Bowl MVP as something of a hedge against my Chiefs position. Barkley is more important to Philadelphia's identity, but Hurts would need to be the reason the Eagles win.
I broke down the entire Super Bowl MVP race last week, analyzing and ranking the top seven candidates. These are my MVP bets and long shots.
Bets in this section:
- Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl MVP (0.5 units, +375, BetMGM)
- DeVonta Smith to win Super Bowl MVP (0.25 units, +6600, BetMGM)
- Nick Bolton to win Super Bowl MVP (0.1 units, +40000, Caesars)
- Nolan Smith to win Super Bowl MVP (0.1 units, +30000, BetMGM)
- Drue Tranquill to win Super Bowl MVP (0.05 units, +100000, BetRivers)
Super Bowl Long Shots & More Player Props
What, 27 bets already isn't enough? Good, because I've got 12 more that aren't written up anywhere else, so let's hit the lightning round and run through the rest of my angles.
If it's an Eagles playoff game, I'm betting on a Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (-105, BetMGM).
Hurts ran for at least one score in 12 of 17 full games this season (71%), including 10 of his last 12. He led the league in expected touchdowns this season at 14.5 and ranked third in carries inside the five. The Chiefs have allowed a QB rushing touchdown in four straight games, too. Kansas City is vulnerable to QB scrambles, and the Tush Push is always the most likely threat for a touchdown.
Hurts ran for three scores in the NFC Championship, and he had three in the last Super Bowl against the Chiefs. That may be a bit much, but two scores at +625 (BetMGM) is worth a touch.
I don't know if this is the end for Travis Kelce, but I'm going down swinging.
Kelce's numbers in 15 games the last five postseasons are staggering: 122 catches, 1,407 yards, and 14 TDs, with at least one TD in 11 of 15 (73%) and at least 71 yards in all but his most recent game. Kelce has scored 19 TDs in 20 playoff games with Mahomes, with at least one in 70% of them.
This is a tough matchup for Kelce, but I'm always playing his anytime TD playoff odds at +135 (DraftKings).
Kelce had the first Chiefs touchdown in five of the last nine playoff games, including against the Eagles in the last Super Bowl. I'll go back to that well once more (+425, DraftKings) and sprinkle Kelce to have the first Chiefs TD in a Kansas City win (+1400, DraftKings).
As long as that hamstring holds up, I'm expecting a good game from DeVonta Smith.
Smith is typically Philly's zone beater, while A.J. Brown is unstoppable against man. Since I expect Spags to employ more zone than usual this game, that sets up well for Smith, especially out of the slot.
DeVonta Smith has at least four catches in eight straight games and 13 of 16 this season (81%). That's a good floor bet alt line at 4+ receptions (-220, FanDuel) and makes for a nice parlay leg.
Smith has 6/99, 7/100, and 7/122 in three games against Spags and this Chiefs defense. If you expect Philly to pass a lot and want to go high on Smith, you can sprinkle 100+ yards at +700 (bet365). He's one yard away from hitting that prop all three times against the Chiefs. You can use that 4+ receptions bet to fund this one as a creative escalator.
Dallas Goedert is the other Eagle I really like in this game and the first bet I made on the Hot Read immediately after lines posted.
I bet Goedert to go over 45.5 receiving yards. That's ballooned to 52.5 at most books now, but it's still worth playing if you can get the over at 49.5 at FanDuel (-110).
If you must bet the coin toss, why not trust the numbers?
NFC East teams were 31-13 against non-division opponents this season winning the coin toss, with every team in the division over .500, per Anthony Reinhard. Conversely, the AFC West went 18-26 in coin tosses against non-division foes, with every team under .500.
The numbers don't like. If you're betting the coin toss, it's Eagles to win it at +100 (DraftKings) — and for the love of God, don't you dare lay juice on a coin toss bet.
How about the shortest odds I'll play in the Super Bowl?
The Eagles converted a fourth down in 17 of 20 games this season (85%), including each of the last seven. The only three misses were relatively easy wins against Jacksonville, Washington, and Carolina. We know this team will be aggressive, and we know they have the Tush Push.
A successful Eagles fourth-down conversion is -600 (bet365).
And lastly, from my surest bet to my longest … what fun is betting if you can't call your shot every now and then?
I can't get there on the exact score prediction bet — gimme Chiefs 27, Eagles 18 — but how about threading the needle on a narrative script same game parlay?
The Eagles were terrible all season in the first quarter. They didn't even score a single point in the first quarter all season until November, and the opening stanza was their worst defensively by DVOA, too.
Then again, the Chiefs haven't led at the half in any of their four Super Bowls. Philadelphia's been as good in the second quarter as it was poor in the first. And if the Chiefs are trailing late, you know you'll want action on a Mahomes comeback win — something he's done 10 times in 20 playoff games, including all three Super Bowl wins.
Let's close out our Super Bowl bets with an exacta SGP: Chiefs first quarter, Eagles halftime, and Chiefs moneyline, playing the narrative at +2400 (DraftKings).
If Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs really are inevitable, we may as well profit from it.
Bets in this section:
- Jalen Hurts anytime TD (1 unit, -105, BetMGM) and 2 TDs (0.25 units, +550, FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce anytime TD (0.65 units, +135, DraftKings)
- Kelce first Chiefs TD (0.25 units, +425, DraftKings) and first Chiefs TD in a win (0.1 units, +1400, DraftKings)
- DeVonta Smith 4+ receptions (0.75 units, -220, FanDuel)
- Smith 100+ receiving yards (0.25 units, +700, bet365)
- Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving yards (1 unit, -110, FanDuel)
- Eagles to win coin toss (0.25 units, +100, DraftKings)
- Eagles to convert a fourth-down conversion (0.5 units, -600, bet365)
- Chiefs 1Q / Eagles HT / Chiefs ML SGP (0.25 units, +2400, DraftKings)
