Super Bowl 57 features a heavyweight matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. It’s not often we get to this stage with two of the top three offenses in the league, which means we could see a lot of touchdowns scored.
The last time we came close to a similar matchup was in 2019, when the New England Patriots (27.3 points per game, fourth in NFL) and the Los Angeles Rams (32.9, second) met in Super Bowl LIII. What resulted was inarguably a boring, I mean, defensive battle that saw the Patriots win 13-3 with only one touchdown. Thankfully, this probably won’t be the case when the Chiefs face the Eagles in Arizona.
As someone who combs the betting market each week for Anytime Touchdown player prop bets, this game is ripe for betting angles, but picking the “obvious” guys – like Travis Kelce or Miles Sanders – may not be a layup as the odds indicate.
Although both teams have explosive offenses, there are some strengths and weaknesses bettors need to know before placing their Anytime Touchdown bets for Super Bowl 57.
Chiefs Anytime TD Breakdown
Strengths
It has to start with quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The likely NFL MVP finished with second-most passing touchdowns in a season for his career (41) and a career-high in passing yards (5,250).
I don’t think I’m breaking new ground by mentioning how good Mahomes is, but the high ankle sprain he suffered in the Divisional Round could hinder his ability to move in the pocket and evade the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush. The rest between the AFC title game and Super Bowl should help to negate that factor, but certainly can’t be dismissed when considering Anytime TD bets.
Mahomes may not have Tyreek Hill anymore, but his All-Pro TE Travis Kelce did just fine as the No.1 option. Kelce had a career-high 12 touchdowns during the regular season, to go with three touchdowns in this playoff run. That puts Kelce at a gaudy statline of 15 touchdowns in 18 career playoff games. His Anytime TD odds currently hover around -125 to +100.
(Sidenote: If you want to bet Kelce to score a TD, try betting him as “First Chiefs Team TD Scorer” at sites like bet365 and FanDuel instead of his Anytime TD odds. In 19 games played (including playoffs), Kelce scored the first Chiefs TD in 9 of them.)
The Eagles’ pass defense is a “funnel” style – they make teams beat them over the middle while playing the boundaries superbly with cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry. This means the Chiefs will need to likely force more plays up the seams to the likes of Kelce, Kadarius Toney or Jerick McKinnon.
However, after Kelce, it’s grim a look for the Chiefs’ wide receiver room. Both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are good Nos.2 or 3 receivers for a contender, but neither is a true No. 1. It’s telling that Mahomes threw for over 5,000 yards and neither of them topped 1,000 receiving yards. Hell, McKinnon finished with the second-most touchdowns on the team with nine.
McKinnon went on a second-half tear that hasn’t been done by a running back since former Rams great, Marshall Faulk. Nine of McKinnon’s 10 TDs scored came in the final six games of the season, which mostly coincided with Clyde Edwards-Helaire being placed on IR.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid may have found the 1-2 punch in the backfield he’s been striving for with McKinnon as the passing-down back and rookie Isaiah Pacheco running between the tackles on early downs.
Weaknesses
Here’s where I need to pick apart the Chiefs. Although some of the surface stats suggest K.C. was decent against the run this season, it's a whole different animal when facing this iteration of the Eagles.
The Chiefs ranked eighth in rush yards allowed per game (107.2) and sixth in rushing touchdowns (10). Why those surface stats can be misleading is the Chiefs didn’t trail much in games during the season, which is when opponents would try to bleed the clock and keep Mahomes off the field.
The Chiefs only faced one team that consistently ranked in the top 10 in DVOA for rush offense (San Francisco 49ers). Their defense did their job and held the Niners to only 101 rushing yards. The Niners, as evidenced by the NFC Championship game, are not on the same level as the Eagles running the football.
The Eagles were surgical in the red zone with their offense in the NFC title game and put up four rushing TDs on a hyped-up Niners defense that had only given up seven rushing scores the entire season.
Another factor going against the Chiefs is Jalen Hurts isn’t a prototypical QB to prepare for. He was top five in rushing attempts in the red zone AND top five in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. The Eagles offensive line has bullied opponents and Hurts is a weapon that no defense can truly prepare for. He ended the 2022 season with the second-most rushing TDs in the NFL. Why this is important to note is although the Chiefs only gave up 10 rushing TDs this season, four of them were to quarterbacks (40%).
Oh, did I mention the Chiefs secondary is of the Swiss cheese variety? After giving up 20 touchdowns to wide receivers this season (31st), the part of their defense where they get exposed the most is actually over the middle – a.k.a. the slot. The Chiefs gave up the second-most TDs to that area of the field, behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I mentioned this when I wrote about why I was betting on Dallas Goedert to score a TD in Super Bowl 57: “Since coming off their bye week in Week 10, the Chiefs have given up at least one TD in the slot in all but two games. The two games they didn’t allow one were in Week 13 and the AFC Championship game, both to the Cincinnati Bengals.” Goedert lines up exclusively in the slot for the Eagles.
You could make a legitimate betting case for nearly every skill player on the Eagles to score, but I’ve narrowed it down to two players based on stats, matchup and betting odds:
Eagles Anytime Touchdown Scorer Targets
Dallas Goedert Anytime TD +200
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD +110
Eagles Anytime TD Breakdown
Strengths
There are many things the Eagles could claim as a “strength,” but I’d be remiss if I didn’t have their run game at the top of the list. The Eagles ranked first in rush offense DVOA throughout and finished 2022 with a whopping 32 rushing TDs, eight more than the second-place team. This all starts with Jalen Hurts.
Hurts’ rushing ability and improved throwing accuracy has him among the elites in the NFL. He finished the season with the second-most rushing touchdowns, a 66% completion percentage (11th) and a 3:1 TD-INT ratio. The accuracy was quite a jump from 2021, when he only completed 60.1% of his passes – impressive as the knock on Hurts coming out of college was whether he could make the necessary throws to succeed as a pro.
While defenses are still trying to decipher the code on neutralizing Hurts and his scramble ability, part of what has aided him is a plethora of elite pass-catchers. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, possibly the best 1-2 receiving punch in the league, combined for over 2,500 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. Then you have shifty Dallas Goedert, who has been a YAC machine and averaged more first-down catches per game than Brown or Smith. Considering how the Chiefs have struggled to contain pass-catchers all season, I project the trio to have great results against K.C.’s secondary.
The fact that I’ve gotten this far and haven’t even mentioned Philadelphia's strong offensive line play for RB Miles Sanders is a testament to the wealth of talent on this Eagles roster.
The Eagles are going to run the ball. There’s no question about that. Nearly 52% of all plays run this season were via the ground game. If you're a person who likes to bet Anytime Touchdowns, don’t stray too far from Philly’s elite rushing offense.
Weaknesses
When you face an all-time QB like Patrick Mahomes, an opponent’s defensive strengths can be mitigated in a hurry. Although the Eagles secondary has mostly stifled opponents, they did give up 16 passing TDs to WRs (22 passing TDs overall) and only faced three QBs who ranked top 10 in EPA per play in Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff (S/O to Anthony Dabbundo).
In those games, the Cowboys put up 40 points and the Lions managed 35 – while the Jaguars only scored 21 points, they led by 14 after the first quarter. I don’t think it’s a hot take to say Mahomes and the Chiefs will easily be the biggest test thus far for the Eagles.
Another factor where the Chiefs could potentially exploit the Eagles is by setting up an efficient run game option. Philadelphia allowed 121 rushing yards per game and had a few games when teams like the Chicago Bears, Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys had success running the ball.
Can the Chiefs follow suit? Tough to say since K.C. relies so heavily on Mahomes Magic, but with two weeks for head coach Andy Reid to prepare, I fully expect Jerick McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco to make an impact in this matchup. It’s worth mentioning that Mahomes has five rushing touchdowns in 13 career playoff games and could be rejuvenated from the two-week layoff.
Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer Targets
Jerick McKinnon +185
Patrick Mahomes +500
Pick: Jerick McKinnon ATD (+165) |
Pick: Patrick Mahomes ATD (+500) |
