I stopped by "The Favorites" on Tuesday with Chris Raybon and revealed my next three Chiefs vs. Eagles predictions and prop picks.
All three of my bets can be found at bet365. One is a big long shot that we're getting great value on, but my first prop is one we're going to have to drink a bit of juice on.
Let's get into it.
Saquon Barkley Most Rush Attempts (-350)
Saquon Barkley is a massive favorite in this market, but I think the price should be much higher.
Barkley's rush attempts prop is around 21.5 right now. The next closest is Kareem Hunt at 11.5, Jalen Hurts at 9.5 then Patrick Mahomes and Isiah Pacheco at six. The distribution of these props are pretty tight, unlike a yardage prop that could see a player go for 50+ yards and make a huge difference. A player can only get one rush attempt on any given play, though.
In my Super Bowl simulation, I'm showing around a 96% chance that Barkley has the most rush attempts in this game. The actual odds should be a bit lower considering there's a chance he gets injured and we don't know when that would be in the game. Also, there could be a perfect game script here for Kareem Hunt where the Chiefs take an early lead and he gets 17 or more carries while the Eagles are forced into a pass-heavy script.
I think a fair projection would be closer to 85%, which comes out to -565 for Barkley in this market.
Nolan Smith To Get First Sack (+1600; 0.2 units)
Nolan Smith was the Eagles' first-round pick in 2023 and didn't do much as a rookie, but he started to break out toward the end of his second season. Since Week 15, Smith leads the Eagles in pressures with 23. He has had a sack in each of the Eagles' first three playoff games, and a sack in this game would make him the first player to have a sack in four playoff games in the same postseaosn.
Smith might be going against Chiefs RT Jawaan Taylor here, and Taylor has allowed a team-high 41 pressures this season. It's a good spot for him.
I have Smith tied for the second-highest sack projection in this game and show a fair price for him getting the first sack as closer to +850. That means we're getting a ton of value here at +1600.
No Player To Rush for 100 Yards (+210; 0.75 units)
Obviously, Saquon Barkley is the biggest threat to this prop. I'm in line with his rushing yards total around 110.5, so I have him as having about a 58% chance (or -140) to clear 100 yards.
If he stays under, though, who the hell else is going to run for triple-digit yards? Jalen Hurts hasn't run for 100 yards since Week 12 in 2022, while Kareem Hunt might need 30 carries to get to 100 yards. I'm showing about a 5% chance that a player outside of Barkley clears 100 rushing yards.
It's important to realize that some of the simulations I've run are when Barkley clears 100 yards himself, which is 50% of the time, and there are times when two players run for 100+ yards.
When factoring everything in, I'm getting about a 39% chance that we don't have a player run for 100 yards, which is a fair price of +155. That means we're getting decent value here at +210.
