Chiefs vs.
Eagles
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +104 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -122 |
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX
The NFL market is very efficient overall and especially this time of the year. However, I actually had a rare bet on both the side and total for Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl 57. Hopefully, this ends better than the last time that happened back in 2017, when I lost both the Falcons and the under in devastating fashion in overtime.
Below, I'll detail the side and total I wagered on. I'll then touch on my live betting thoughts before closing out with a handful of player props.
Good luck with whatever you decide to bet, and enjoy the final game of football until August.
It's Pat
After the injuries Kansas City suffered in the AFC Championship Game, I understand why the Eagles took early money. However, I still make the Chiefs a slight favorite, so I happily backed them on the moneyline last week.
I get the sense we’ll look back at this line in 10 years and ask, “Why was the greatest quarterback of all time an underdog in the Super Bowl?”
Look, the Eagles are great. The NFC was garbage this season. Both can be true.
I just feel like the market is overvaluing Philadelphia, particularly on defense. The Eagles have a phenomenal (and deep) pass rush to complement a talented secondary. However, I believe the Chiefs can exploit a few chinks in the armor on the back end.
Philly played one of the easiest regular season schedules in the NFL. It then only had to take out a limited Giants offense and the 49ers without a quarterback en route to the Super Bowl.
The defense also benefited from playing from ahead most of the season. That allowed the pass rush to relentlessly pin its ears back.
What does that ultimately mean? The sample size of the Eagles facing elite offenses is very limited.
From a DVOA perspective, Philadelphia only faced two quarterbacks who finished in the top-10 in adjusted EPA per play in normal weather conditions:
- Jared Goff (6th)
- Dak Prescott (7th)
In those games, the Lions and Cowboys scored 35 and 40 points, respectively. And I wouldn’t classify either one in the upper echelon elite category. Even Rodgers (and eventually Jordan Love) and the limited Packers offense scored 33 while averaging 7.0 yards per play.
Again, it’s a small sample size. Therefore, it’s difficult to take too much from those games, but I’m taking a stance this defense has more holes than the market implies.
Facing Mahomes, who unsurprisingly finished first in adjusted EPA per play, presents a massive step up in class.
The Kansas City staff and quarterback experience edge could especially pay dividends early on. We know how effective Reid and his staff are with extra time to prepare.
(The two-week break certainly should also help Mahomes’ ankle. Nobody really knows for sure, but I believe he will come in pretty close to fully healthy.)
As a result, I expect the Chiefs to come out with a pristine early script, giving them a decent chance of jumping out to an early lead. That’s massive against a team that didn’t have to play from behind too often, which enabled them to rely on their dominant rushing attack and pass rush.
Consequently, the Eagles may have to rely more on Hurts dropping back to throw in known passing situations. First, I still don’t fully trust him in those situations. Second, he still could be hampered by a shoulder injury which has caused recent accuracy issues.
You can also count on savvy defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who thrives in these marquee matchups, having many different disguised looks. That could bait the still relatively inexperienced Hurts into a critical mistake or two.
Even if the Chiefs do fall behind early, I’d still have the greatest trailing quarterback in the league in my back pocket. I certainly won't panic if down two scores in the first half, which would be a death sentence for most teams against this Eagles squad.
I could go on ad nauseam about this particular matchup, but I’m sure you’ve heard it all by now.
Ultimately, this comes down to a bit of value in my number, but mainly just trusting Mahomes (who threw for 5 touchdowns in a 42-30 victory against this defense last year) to win this game. I could do many worse things with my money than back one of the all-time greats as an underdog.
In case you have been living under a rock, there’s a reason Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as a pup. Even more impressive, including the postseason, he owns absolutely ridiculous 18-6-1 ATS (75%) mark as an underdog or favorite of a field goal or less. He's essentially a gold mine when you need him to win.
Pick: Chiefs Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Over or Under?
From a total perspective, I played over 50.5. However, that’s the highest I’d play it to, with 51 being a key number.
In 25 games Mahomes was an underdog or favorite of three or fewer, the Chiefs averaged 31.8 points per game, which all obviously came against quality competition given the spread. They amazingly got to at least 30 points in 17 of those contests (68%).
I think they hit that mark once again in what I’ll call a 30-24 victory. It certainly won’t be easy. The Eagles have an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. On offense, they should run the ball effectively against a man-heavy Chiefs defense that has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks.
Also, Philly’s RPO-centric attack ranked No. 1 in EPA per pass against Cover 1 defenses, which the Chiefs run at a high frequency. Maybe they switch it up and run more Cover 3 (the Eagles ranked 30th in EPA per pass against cover 3). However, that would require running a higher frequency of an unfamiliar scheme. Either way, Philly should sustain drives and put up points.
This is setting up for a classic. I can easily see why so many I respect are making logical cases for each side. I’m just trusting Mahomes to get it done against a defense I believe is a tad overrated.
Both teams should efficiently move the ball, play aggressively on fourth downs and use plenty of tempo. The latter would definitely help the Chiefs neutralize that vaunted Philly pass rush. After all, both rank in the top three in situational-neutral pace.
Pick: Over 50.5 |
Live Betting Looks
Historically, Super Bowl games start out very slow.
Since 1998, the average total points in the first quarter of the “Big Game” has been just seven points. That’s almost two points fewer than the average of all other first quarters over that same time period.
Amazingly, teams have combined to score more than 10 first-quarter points only four times (16%) in the past 25 Super Bowls over that span — and only once over the past 11. For reference, we’ve actually seen more (five) scoreless first quarters.
In contrast, the other three quarters have each averaged more than their respective overall averages. Despite those common slow starts, overs still went 12-13 over that span with a total average points scored of 47.5.
It does make sense when you consider the stage and the increased likelihood teams come out a little more conservative than usual — feeling each other out, shaking off the nerves and trying to avoid an early critical mistake. While I don’t think that’s in either team’s DNA, if we get another slow start, I’d certainly look for a live over after the first quarter, assuming both quarterbacks look healthy and neither offensive line looks completely overmatched.
And if the Chiefs fall behind early, they are always worth a look live with Mahomes at the helm.
Props
Here are the four props I played. There's a lot of correlation between my side, total and the below bets based on how I believe the game will play out. Therefore, it could easily be a very big day or very poor day. I'm personally comfortable with that risk, but you may not be based on your own risk aversion level.
Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Props
Back to the well for a third straight week with the over on receiving props for an opposing running back against Kansas City. I decided to split my over exposure between his receptions (over 1.5; -130) and receiving yards (over 11.5; -113).
The Chiefs ranked in the bottom five in defending backs in the passing game. Gainwell, who has seen his snap share significantly increase in the second half of the season, can take full advantage.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 1.5 Receptions |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
In the NFC Championship Game, Gainwell played a season-high 31 snaps. Now, his snap share does go down substantially in close games, which I believe this will be. But since I like the Chiefs and the over, I think the Eagles will be throwing more than usual. Plus, they really like Gainwell on third downs and in hurry-up, where he could rack up some easy catches.
In 19 games, the Chiefs allowed 23 backs to catch at least three balls — despite even facing three backup quarterbacks in Jarrett Stidham, Bryce Perkins and Malik Willis.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 11.5 Rec Yards |
I think Gainwell becomes the 24th — although even just two receptions should get the job done for both wagers.
Jake Elliott Under 7.5 Kicker Points
It wouldn’t be a Super Bowl without wagering on a special teams prop. To me, they embody the unique and expansive prop offerings of this football betting bonanza.
For this particular wager, I project a lower number for Elliott from a raw numbers perspective. I also expect to see more touchdowns than field goals, hence why I fancy the game over. I anticipate an even greater aggression from an Eagles coaching staff that already loves to go for it on fourth downs.
The Eagles also have a higher-than-average propensity to go for two. They will frequently attempt to draw teams offsides after a touchdown in order to utilize their near-automatic quarterback sneak from the one-yard line. It also wouldn’t shock me if they simply went for two at any point.
Lastly, K.C. opponents made 100% of extra points and 92% of field goals this season. For reference, the overall season averages were 94.6% and 85%, respectively. The regression gods certainly owe the Chiefs a missed kick or two. Believe it or not, Elliott is one of only two kickers (Stephen Gostkowski) to miss an extra point in the Super Bowl since 1990.
For what it’s worth, if my aforementioned 30-24 prediction holds true, Elliott would finish with six kicker points. I played under 7.5 points last week, which has come down a bit. I'd still play under 7, but wouldn't go lower than that.
Pick: Jake Elliott Under 7.5 Kicking Points |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jody Fortson Anytime TD
For a long-shot prop, I believe Fortson — a relatively unknown name to most casual fans — has value to find pay dirt.
With all of the injury uncertainty at wide receiver for the Chiefs, you could see more of Fortson, especially in the red zone, where he makes his hay. Plus, with two weeks to prepare and with all of the attention Travis Kelce will likely draw, K.C. can use that against the Eagles near the goal line. I could see Reid and Eric Bieniemy scheming a play that gets Fortson wide open in the end zone.
For his career, the Valdosta State product has scored a TD on 29% of his career receptions (4 on 14). Also, 38% of his targets have come inside the 10-yard line. He's averaging eight routes per game this season and saw 14 snaps at receiver in the AFC Championship Game with five inline, five in the slot and even four out wide.
Pick: Jody Fortson Anytime TD (+900) |
