The Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles tonight as they look for a third straight Super Bowl victory. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on FOX.
These teams faced off two years ago, and both teams feature a lot of the same faces. The Eagles are considered the better team, but that's not always enough to take down Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts won't go down easily, though.
Below, I preview Chiefs vs. Eagles and offer a moneyline prediction, as well as a slew of player props that have major value.
For one last time this season … let's get that shmoney!
Super Bowl Picks: Chiefs vs. Eagles
Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction
The Eagles are the more talented team, but the Chiefs have advantages at quarterback, kicker and coach, which could all prove massive in what is expected to be a tightly contested game.
The best way to approach a matchup like this is to look at what the market is either not pricing in, or pricing correctly, and which side benefits more from that potential discrepancy.
To me, the answer is pretty clearly the Eagles' running game – specifically, Saquon Barkley – against the Chiefs' run defense.
- It’s a strength-on-strength matchup on paper. Barkley led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards during the regular season, and was second among qualified running backs with 5.8 yards per carry (YPC). He has amassed a postseason-leading 442 rushing yards and 15 missed tackles. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs (1,197) and the second-fewest YPC (3.78). They have the second-lowest missed-tackle rate on runs in the regular season and postseason combined.
- Both the Eagles' rush offense and the Chiefs' run defense had an easier than average strength of schedule. The Eagles faced only four matchups against teams in the top 10 in defensive rushing DVOA: Baltimore (fourth), Tampa Bay (sixth) and Green Bay twice (seventh). Two of those matchups (Green Bay, Tampa Bay) came in the first four weeks of the season. The Chiefs, meanwhile, faced only five matchups against teams in the top 10 in offensive rushing DVOA — Baltimore (first), Buffalo twice (fourth), Atlanta (fifth and Tampa Bay (seventh) – two of which (Baltimore, Atlanta) came in the first three weeks of the season.
- Recent trends favor the Eagles. Barkley is averaging 147.3 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, with five TDs in three games. He has rushed for 100-plus yards in nine of his last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed 4.74 YPC to running backs on 174 carries since Week 13 after allowing 3.16 YPC on 186 carries prior.
The one thing that may not be fully accounted for is that when it comes to limiting elite run games, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done nasty work while working with less.
- Super Bowl 57: The Eagles No. 1-ranked rush offense in DVOA went up against a Chiefs run defense ranked 15th. The Eagles rushed 32 times for 115 yards (3.59 YPC), with Eagles running backs in particular averaging just 2.65 YPC.
- Super Bowl 58: The 49ers’ No. 2-ranked rush offense went up against a Chiefs run defense ranked 27th. The 49ers rushed 31 times for 110 yards (3.55 YPC). Christian McCaffrey was held to 80 yards on 22 carries (3.64 YPC), his third-lowest YPC mark of the season in 19 games.
For those interested, The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen does a great job of breaking down the technical details of how Spagnuolo pulled it off against the 49ers last season, but in a nutshell, Spagnuolo uses a variety of unconventional defensive fronts that are stronger against the run, often disguising them until the last possible moment before the snap.
It creates a win-win for the Chiefs because it can throw off the blocking scheme and create hesitancy in the runner while being tough to audible against pre-snap. And if the Eagles were to combat it by calling up more pass plays on early downs, that means they’re going away from their biggest strength and taking more risks, which is not their comfort zone.
I don’t expect the Chiefs to get much from their run game against Philly’s top-two run defense. Chiefs running backs are averaging 3.58 YPC on 99 carries with a long of 20 yards since Joe Thuney moved to left tackle (excluding Week 18), but the Chiefs have been able to use the quick passing game and Patrick Mahomes’ legs in lieu of the traditional run game.
Mahomes is averaging 0.310 EPA per dropback in the playoffs. He’s averaging 0.342 EPA per dropback since Marquise Brown returned despite going up against defenses ranked third, seventh, third, and 14th.in DVOA against the pass.
For context, the Eagles allowed 22 points to the Rams with Matthew Stafford posting 0.022 EPA/DB, and 23 points to the Commanders with Jayden Daniels posting 0.104 EPA/DB.
Per The Athletic, Super Bowl winners have taken 0.3 seconds fewer, on average, to get rid of the ball, and the six teams with the longest time to throw went 0-6. Among 44 qualified quarterbacks in the regular season and postseason combined, Jalen Hurts has the longest time to throw at 3.21 seconds while Mahomes is at 2.78 (22nd). Since Brown came back in Week 16, Mahomes has gotten that time down to 2.65 seconds.
Given Spagnuolo’s unpredictable blitz packages and coverage disguises, Hurts is unlikely to drastically improve on his time to throw in this spot. The ability of No. 1 corner Trent McDuffie to play inside/outside and the return of cornerback Jaylen Watson for the playoffs give the Chiefs the horses to match up with the Eagles' talented skill group.
McDuffie’s 83.4 PFF grade ranked second of 118 qualified corners. Watson has allowed just a 54.5% catch rate and a 73.9 passer rating, and the Chiefs allowed -0.029 EPA/DB in games he played compared to 0.044 in games he missed.
According to our Action Labs data, the Chiefs are 18-4-1 with Mahomes as the starter when favored by 2 points or less, or an underdog, covering by 6.3 points per game. In the postseason, that record is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS, covering by 5.6 points per game.
I'd bet the Chiefs moneyline to -135.
Xavier Worthy Prop Pick
Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+155; Bet to +116)
Excluding Week 18, Worthy has scored in four of his last five games. The only time he failed to score during that span was in the Divisional Round against Houston, when he came up inches short on a second-quarter reception.
During his nine-game streak of catching at least four passes, he has scored over half the time (55.6%). His 50.8% slot rate in the playoffs — coupled with the Eagles’ tendency to not move their corners — should allow Worthy to continue to get the most advantageous matchups possible.
Worthy's 1.2 rushing attempts per game (1.5 in the playoffs) also give him an added boost, as he’s already scored three times on the ground this season. In Mahomes' last five starts, Worthy has 11 total carries, with multiple totes in four of the five.
I’m projecting his true odds at just under a coin flip.
DeAndre Hopkins Reception Bet
DeAndre Hopkins Longest Reception Over 9.5 Yards (-104); Bet to 11.5 (-115)
Hopkins has continued the trend of not being a full-time receiver in the playoffs, but he has still posted a reception of 10-plus yards in 10-of-12 (83.3%) games with the Chiefs and 13-of-18 (72.2%) overall.
Hopkins has run the majority of his routes lined up on the offensive right this postseason, which would pit him against LCB Darius Slay. Slay has been the most targeted Eagles defender this postseason (22) and has allowed 14.8 yards per reception.
Isiah Pacheco Player Prop
Isiah Pacheco Not to Score (-400; bet to -570)
This is a nice one to add to parlays.
Pacheco has scored in only 1-of-9 (11.2%) games this season, and that came way back in Week 1. He has failed to score in all seven games with Kareem Hunt.
Pacheco is averaging just 2.79 YPC over his last five games with Joe Thuney at tackle and has seen his opportunities dwindle as a result, logging only five carries in each postseason game.
The Eagles allowed the second-fewest rushing TDs to running backs during the regular season and only one in their three playoff games.
I’m projecting Pacheco with over an 85% chance to not score.
Super Bowl Game Prop
Game Under 5.5 Total Sacks (-130; bet to -200)
I have this one closer to -200.
Overall, both offenses tend to have the quarterback get rid of the ball quicker than most. Many will point to the Divisional Round when Jalen Hurts was sacked nine times by the Rams. He got the ball out in 2.96 seconds on average, which was only the second time since Week 8 that number was below three seconds for him.
I think that will be a big talking point for the Eagles offense — getting the ball out of Hurts’ hands quickly. You know that will be the case for the Chiefs offense, which has changed its ways of late.
The one thing Kansas City has done consistently is move toward an offense that leans heavily on the short-passing game. Mahomes is consistently getting the ball out of his hand in under 2.8 seconds, which is more by design than it is because of the pressure he’s facing.
When you work out all of the probabilities, you’re going to get five or fewer sacks quite often. There were only two sacks when these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, and that was with the Eagles throwing the ball a lot more than they had in the past.
I don't think this is a game where the Eagles offense will set up to let Hurts get sacked five or six times.
This line is inflated, which is why I’m on under 5.5 sacks.
