Another day, more Super Bowl props.
I'm fading Saquon Barkley and then betting two props that you'll only be able to bet for the Super Bowl. Let's get this shmoney with Chiefs vs. Eagles!
Saquon Barkley Not To Score a TD (+155)
This prop can be found under “TD Scorers” and “Players Not to Score.”
Saquon Barkley has failed to score in nine of 19 (47.4%) games this season, which is equivalent to +111 odds. Those games came with the Eagles averaging 29.4 points per game, and their implied probability here is 23.5 points.
Only six of Barkley’s 18 rushing touchdowns have come from inside the 10-yard line, while Hurts has 16. If Philadelphia gets close to the end zone, chances are the QB will be scoring.
The Chiefs defense also has allowed the seventh-lowest explosive rush rate in the NFL, including the postseason.
I’m projecting Barkley to not score 44.7% of the time, which is equivalent to +124.
More Field Goals Made Than Passing TDs (+130)
This prop can be found under “Super Bowl LIX Specials” and “Game H2H Specials.”
In 18 Patrick Mahomes starts this season, there have been more combined field goals in 10 games, more passing touchdowns in five and a tie in three games.
On the Eagles side, Jalen Hurts made 18 starts this season. In those games, there were more combined field goals 11 times, more passing touchdowns four times and a tie four times.
In total, that’s 21 of 36 games, which is 58.3% of the time and comes out to -140 odds.
I’m projecting 3.53 field goals and 2.95 passing touchdowns. I’d bet this down to -120.
No Player To Record Interception (+200)
This one can be found at “1st of Game” and “First Turnover.”
Mahomes threw an interception in each of his first seven games this season, but he’s only thrown one in his past 11 and hasn’t thrown one in his last eight games.
Hurts, meanwhile, threw interceptions in each of his first three games this season but then just one in his last 15 games. That also includes no interceptions in any of his last nine games.
Combined, Mahomes and Hurts haven’t thrown an interception in their last 17 starts. Of their last 26 combined starts, only two games have seen an interception thrown.
I’d bet this one up to -185.
