As soon as the clock hit zero in the AFC Championship game between the Bills and Chiefs, sportsbooks wasted no time getting up touchdown betting markets for the Super Bowl. In turn, I wasted no time in getting my first anytime TD bet for the final bet of the NFL season.
For this matchup, I almost went straight back to my script from the February 2023 meeting between these teams for my pick. Once again, I'm on Dallas Goedert to score a touchdown.
Let's get into it with one game left in the NFL season.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Dallas Goedert ATD (+350)
My sights are set on the Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert at +350, which is available at BetMGM.
There’s a few reasons why I like Goedert here, but let’s start with the passing volume and targets.
Goedert has been a consistent threat for Jalen Hurts since he became the Eagles' starting quarterback. Goedert has at least four catches now in nine straight playoff games, a stretch that dates back to January 2021, and he has a touchdown in three of them. When these teams played in the Super Bowl two years ago, Goedert had six catches on seven targets, including two receptions in the red zone.
Also helping Goedert's case is that Eagles TE2 Grant Calcaterra hasn’t been much of a threat in the passing game. He has one target in the Eagles' first three playoff games while Goedert has averaged over 90% of snaps played.
Another reason to like Goedert here is the matchup he has against this Chiefs defense.
Kansas City plays man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL and had some struggles against opposing tight ends during the regular season. Kansas City ranked in the bottom five in targets, catches and yards allowed to opposing tight ends and allowed five touchdowns. Goedert has actually thrived facing man defense this season and ranks second on the Eagles in target share (26%) and yards per route run (3.43), which are elite numbers despite being much lower than WR1 A.J. Brown.
I had expected odds for Goedert’s TD prop closer to +290 for this game. With most Eagles TD props likely to be steamed as we get closer to kickoff of the Super Bowl, this is my favorite TD bet on the board.
I haven’t locked in a Chiefs TD scorer yet, but my early leans would look to periphery WRs like JuJu Smith-Schuster (+650) or Justin Watson (+1100) as deep threats who can catch a defense off-guard.
It’s worth noting that in each of the Chiefs’ last two Super Bowl wins, it was the secondary receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney or MeCole Hardman who scored with ATD odds of +500 or higher.
