Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Chiefs vs. Falcons parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Chiefs vs. Falcons Sunday Night Football parlay picks on DraftKings.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football
- Falcons +3 (-105)
- Tyler Allgeier Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 24.5 Completions (-120)
- Kyle Pitts 70+ Receiving Yards (+390)
Full Chiefs vs. Falcons Parlay Odds: +2400 | $10 Bet Wins $240
Falcons +3 (-105)
To tell the truth, I didn't have a strong feeling on the spread in this game. I expected the Chiefs to be heavier favorites, but they've played two fairly close games so far, and now have to go on the road for the first time this season.
On the other side, Kirk Cousins and the new-look Atlanta offense looked much better in Week 2 than they did in Week 1, and it's reasonable to expect further progression as Cousins returns from an Achilles injury.
What made me land on this pick though, was my colleague Nick Giffen's Luck Rankings. The Falcons +3.5 line was one of his picks this week. You need a PRO subscription to see his full analysis — but then you can also get these picks before the line moves.
While the +3 is obviously not as appealing, in the context of a parlay, it's not a big deal. Losing the "hook" would turn a three-point Falcons loss from a win to a push, but the parlay would still cash at a lower rate if the other bets all hit.
Tyler Allgeier Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This is the top prop for this game in our NFL Props Tool, and pairs nicely with the Falcons spread. If Atlanta keeps it close, they'll be more productive on the ground generally, and with Tyler Allgeier specifically.
He saw nine carries on just 13 snaps last week, as the Falcons try to limit Bijan Robinson's workload. Robinson is the far more dynamic back who will be in on obvious passing downs and catch-up situations, while Allgeier handles a solid chunk of early-down work.
Of which, there should be plenty in a close game, especially against a Chiefs defense than ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run. Unfortunately we're only getting +192 combined odds by adding this prop, but we have an opportunity to chase some big juice later.
Patrick Mahomes Under 24.5 Completions (-120)
I thought we'd get better odds by taking the over on Patrick Mahomes' passing props, considering we had the Falcons spread as one of the picks in this parlay.
That turned out not to be the case, with the under on Mahomes' completions getting us to +480 total odds, while the over is only +415. I'll take that any day, especially since we have Mahomes projected for a median of 23.5 here.
The Chiefs finally have some downfield threats at receiver, which leads to more deep shots and less short passes in their offense. That helps the under in two ways. First, the completion rate is lower on deeper passes. Second, hitting on those big passes shortens drives by covering more of the field in fewer plays.
I'll be splitting my exposure between a bet on this "safer" version of the parlay at +480, before adding one more juicier leg below to really swing for the fences.
Kyle Pitts 70+ Receiving Yards (+390)
As a standalone bet, this one is pretty terrible. Kyle Pitts has just three receptions in each of the Falcons' first two games, on seven total targets. However, what if the Falcons are able to cover the spread thanks to an outlier game from their tight end?
The Chiefs have been vulnerable to the position so far this year, allowing a 9/111/1 line to Isaiah Likely in Week 1 and 7/90/0 to Mike Gesicki last week. Pitts is, in theory, a better player than both of those two.
The Falcons have been fairly adaptable so far this season, showing a willingness to attack their opponents' weakness, and that's a refreshing change from the "one size fits all" game plans of the Arthur Smith era. That means, Pitts could be in for a big day.
The 70+ yards prop brings us to total odds of +2400, but you could also climb the ladder for a higher payout or play it down for better odds of hitting, depending on personal preference.
Full Chiefs vs. Falcons Parlay Odds: +2400 | $10 Bet Wins $240
