Sunday of NFL Week 3 comes to a close with a compelling non-conference clash in the primetime window, as the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) get set to take on the Atlanta Falcons (1-1) on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
This matchup serves us up a chance to see Kansas City on the road as a 3-point favorite in Atlanta, with both teams coming off narrow wins over solid opponents last week. Let's dive into my Chiefs vs. Falcons player props for Carson Steele, Bijan Robinson, and more.
Sam Farley's Chiefs vs. Falcons Player Props
- Carson Steele Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (+105, BetMGM)
- Keaontay Ingram Anytime Touchdown (+900, FanDuel)
- Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (+105, bet365)
- Kyle Pitts Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Chiefs vs. Falcons
Carson Steele
Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (+105)
The main story ahead of this game has been the news of Isiah Pacheco being sent to IR and how the Chiefs’ backfield will look without him. What we do know is that Pacheco tallied 34 carries through both games up until this point.
It’s likely that the Chiefs run the ball slightly less in his absence, but even taking that into account, that means a sizable share is available for the taking for Carson Steele, Samaje Perine or Keontay Ingram.
There was a lot of camp buzz around Steele and it’s notable that he got seven carries in Week 2, compared to Perine getting none. It sounds like Steele will get the start and he’s received praise from Andy Reid, so he should have the most important thing in football; opportunity.
The safest way to back Steele is by taking the rushing attempt line rather than yardage or an anytime touchdown, with carries feeling more certain than any degree of success for the UDFA.
Pick: Carson Steele Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (+105)
Chiefs vs. Falcons
Keaontay Ingram
Anytime Touchdown (+900)
Stephen Sondheim once said “Art, in itself, is an attempt to bring order out of chaos.” Substitute sports betting in for art, and that sounds about right. With that in mind, we’re going to try and find some order in the Chiefs backfield.
Steele is the favorite to score at a disconcertingly short price, with Samaje Perine slightly more generous. Steele has yet to show anything in a real live NFL game to prove that he is deserving of such short odds to score. Likewise, Perine is more of a receiving back and doesn’t scream value either. Step forward Keaontay Ingram.
This is a longshot for a reason, but keep in mind that Andy Reid didn’t elevate Kareem Hunt to the active roster for Sunday’s game. Ingram won’t get the bulk of the carries and there’s a chance that we see Steele break out with a monster game. But given the uncertainty surrounding the Chiefs’ backfield heading into SNF, it’s a value play to back the outsider.
Pick: Keaontay Ingram Anytime Touchdown (+900)
Chiefs vs. Falcons
Bijan Robinson
Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)
It’s still infuriating that despite a head coaching change, the Falcons are refusing to give Bijan Robinson a true bell cow workload, with the former Longhorn yet to score or break 100 rushing yards this season. The one area of real consistency has been the amount of targets he’s had, with five in each game.
Robinson has caught five and four respectively in those games but given he’s averaged 7.6 yards per catch, it’s likely we see this target share rise. The Ravens did a great job of utilizing Justice Hill in the passing game in Week 1 against the Chiefs, and given Robinson’s ability as a pass catcher, it’s a blueprint they might follow. Take the over on Robinson's receptions.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)
Chiefs vs. Falcons
Kyle Pitts
Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
The Chiefs have been torn apart through the air so far this season, giving up the second-highest average amount of passing yards per game. The caveat is that they’ve played two of the very best quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
In the opening week, we saw Isaiah Likely make nine catches for 111 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs, which was followed up by a big performance from Mike Gesicki last week, which saw him lead the Bengals in receiving yards with 91.
So far, that’s two monster games for tight ends against this defense, and with Kyle Pitts being used predominantly as a receiving option, there’s a real chance for him to have a strong game here, going over the low bar of 38.5 yards.
Pick: Kyle Pitts Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
