The Kansas City Chiefs will look to re-ignite their season when they head to the Meadowlands to face off against the lowly New York Giants on Monday Night Football.
The Chiefs at 3-4 still have their customarily explosive offense and rank No. 5 in the NFL in offensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
But, an abject increase in turnovers mixed with a far-shakier defense have dragged this team down into the doldrums of the AFC playoff race.
Kansas City had entered the season as the Super Bowl favorites at +600 but have since plummeted out of the top five.
The Giants, meanwhile, are still mired in their rebuild.
Injuries haven't helped. All their top skill position players and even quarterback Daniel Jones have been dinged up at some point this season.
Running back Saquon Barkley and top receiver Kenny Golladay will each miss Monday's game.
Their No. 2 and No. 3 receivers — Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney, respectively — are also banged up and both are listed as questionable for MNF. Sheperd and Toney are still expected to play.
Shepard has a hamstring problem while Toney has been nursing an ankle injury.
And still, despite these injuries up and down their offense, Daniel Jones' passing yards prop is the second-most wagered on bet for Monday Night Football.
Chiefs vs. Giants Most Popular Props
- Tyreek Hill to score the first touchdown of the game (+600)
- Daniel Jones to record more than 242.5 passing yards (-115)
- Travis Kelce to record more than 6.5 receptions (-145)
(This is according to BetMGM.)
Tyreek Hill has fulfilled this week's most popular player prop zero times this season, but bettors evidently think this is the week he turns things around.
While Hill has kept up his production from the field with an average of over 100 total yards per game, his touchdown numbers have waned in conjunction with the Chiefs' overall struggles.
Hill is averaging just 0.7 touchdowns per contest compared to an average of 1.1 for his career.
That's about a touchdown difference every 2.5 games.
Dating back to the 2019 season, Hill has hit this prop six times out of 34 games, which comes out to about 18% of the time.
That implies odds of about +460, which means there might be value on the +600 prop BetMGM is providing for Monday.
If you're confident that this is the night the Chiefs offense can explode, this prop might be worth a sprinkle.
Daniel Jones has fulfilled his second-most wagered-on prop in four of seven games this season, but hasn't done so since he suffered a concussion in Week 5 against the Dallas Cowboys.
For his career, Jones has passed the 242.5 passing yard mark 13 out of 34 games — a rate of over 38%.
That implies odds of about +160.
Using just this season's numbers as precedent would imply odds of about -135 that this prop hits.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has fulfilled the third-most wagered-on prop four out of seven games this season, for implied odds of about -135.
Dating back to the 2019 season, Kelce has fulfilled the prop 19 out of 38 games for implied odds of +100.
Again, if you think the Chiefs rebound from a three-point showing against the Tennessee Titans last week, this Kelce prop might be the bet for you.
