The Kansas City Chiefs open their 2024 NFL preseason with a trip to Jacksonville on Saturday evening to take on the Jaguars in NFL preseason Week 1. Both Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence will start this game, likely handling two series each unless either puts together a scoring drive on their first, in which case that will probably be all we get to see of the star quarterbacks.
However, it’s not the starting quarterbacks that will determine the outcome of this matchup. The backup quarterback competition for Jacksonville should give them the edge as the game progresses. Let's get to my Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction for Saturday.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction
The defending champions are 1.5-point underdogs (+1.5) to the Jaguars on the spread for Saturday night, with the moneyline a coin flip of -110 for the Chiefs and -110 for the Jags. The total is set at over/under 40.5 points scored by both teams combined.
My Chiefs vs Jaguars pick? That would be on the Jags to cover the spread. Here's why in my Chiefs vs Jaguars preview.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
John LanFranca's Chiefs vs Jaguars Preview, Betting Analysis
Jaguars Have a Backup QB Battle Brewing
Doug Pederson has admitted to a legitimate quarterback competition in deciding who will back up Lawrence this season. C.J Beathard enters his third year with the team, while Jacksonville traded a late-round draft pick for the services of former Patriots’ quarterback Mac Jones. In this particular game, the expectation is for Beathard to enter following Lawrence, and then for Jones to take over later in the contest. It is fair to assume both players will see plenty of action as evaluation process continues leading up to the regular season.
Both Beathard and Jones have substantial regular season experience, but neither will be playing against the first team of their opponents here, and neither should be caught off guard by any exotic looks by the Chiefs defense during this exhibition game.
In 2023, Beathard passed for 117 yards per game in his preseason appearances, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. In fact, Beathard’s passing rating during this time of the year has exceeded 92.4 in three of the last four preseasons. With seven touchdowns and only four interceptions during that span, it’s clear Beathard-led offenses have been productive in putting up points.
Chiefs Secondary Lacks Significant Depth
As for Mac Jones, playing against a thin Chiefs’ defensive back depth chart should make things quite easy for him compared to what he has had to face in the AFC East over the last couple of seasons. At safety, the Chiefs are extremely young, with three rookies likely to see a bulk of the action after the Kansas City starters exit the game.
At cornerback, Nazeeh Johnson, a seventh-pick in 2022, who was not active for a single regular season game last season rounds out the Chiefs’ second-team at the position. On the third team, undrafted second year man Ekow Boye-Doe will try to make the team once again after playing only 15 snaps in the regular season a year ago.
One concerning factor for the Jaguars heading into the regular season has been their lack of commitment on who is calling plays for this offense. Doug Pederson has publicly deemed Press Taylor the offensive coordinator for the duration of the preseason, but the head coach remains silent on what exactly happens when this team takes the field on Sept. 8. Taylor will also be on the sideline for the first time as a play caller as well, previously viewing the game from the booth. While this might seem like a negative, this is an audition for Taylor.
Even Pederson admits you feel more connected to the game when orchestrating the offense on the field as a play-caller. With Taylor looking to display some success in this particular setup, in addition to having two viable quarterbacks playing the majority of the game, this feels more like a crucial dress rehearsal, rather than a meaningless exhibition game.
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John LanFranca's Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction: Bet on Jacksonville Against the Spread
The oddsmakers are in agreement with me that we should expect points in this game on Saturday, as it currently has the highest total of any preseason game this opening week.
Even if Patrick Mahomes comes out on the opening drive and puts up a touchdown, that will only lead to a quick appearance from Carson Wentz before Kansas City lets Chris Oladokun and Ian Book play the rest of the way.
I feel a lot more comfortable backing Beathard and Jones with an offensive coordinator looking to secure the order of operations heading into the regular season.
