Last week, Matthew Stafford burned us bad.
We rode with a defensive struggle but believed the Rams had more talent and would win by multiple scores in a low-scoring game. The low score was there, as was the poor offense. Unfortunately, Stafford threw two interceptions that pretty much handed the Titans 14 points, and that would essentially end our parlay.
Typically, our process for these same-game parlays is to write a game script, then follow that script to parlay several correlated bets together. This week, we will be approaching the game differently.
The trouble is the current play of the Chiefs — their offense has mightily struggled in recent weeks, but betting that to continue still seems like fools gold. That's why we will pivot the focus of this week's same-game parlay onto which players we expect to have big games, allowing us to use PointsBet's $20 free bet for SNF in a way that keeps us away from betting for or against the Chiefs.
Travis Kelce
Even while the Chiefs' offense has struggled, Kelce has found a way to be a solid contributor as he has at least 50 yards receiving in all but two games. When the offense struggled to do much of anything last week against Green Bay, he still managed 68 yards and a touchdown.
Kelce has played extremely well against the Raiders, too. In five of his last six games against the Raiders, Kelce has at least 90 receiving yards and five total touchdowns. His worst performance was still a 62-yard outing.
Despite his dominance, the Raiders have done little to find an answer for Kelce even though they play the Chiefs twice a year. Per PFF, the man expected to primarily cover Kelce is Cory Littleton. Littleton currently has a 43.2 coverage grade from PFF, so this could be a huge mismatch.
Darren Waller
That’s right — the two players we are believing in are the two stud tight ends.
After his huge 100-yard performance with a touchdown to open the season, Waller had been quiet. His numbers were respectable, producing at least 45 receiving yards in every game, but the high-upside had been missing until last Sunday against the Giants.
In New York, Waller recorded double-digit targets for the second time this season and converted that into 92 yards. He also had two targets on the goal line that would have added the nice spice of a touchdown for fantasy players.
Waller should be able to continue his strong play against the Chiefs' poor pass defense. Last season, Waller played well against the Chiefs and recorded 136 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
This season, due to the impromptu release of Henry Ruggs, this passing attack will lean on Waller even more. Even though Vegas came up short last week, there is no question that choosing to feed him was the right choice for the offense.
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Chiefs vs. Raiders
There you have it, our two players and what makes their matchups so appetizing. As for the parlay, we need to keep in mind our standard approach to maximizing our free bet. We will need to build a parlay that both captures correlated events and has a payout worthwhile.
The Parlay (+827)
- Travis Kelce to get 75+ Receiving Yards (-120)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)
- Darren Waller to get 75+ Receiving Yards (-105)
- Darren Waller Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
Kelce 75+ receiving yards and a touchdown
The Raiders' pass defense is built around Casey Hayward Jr. taking away the top option for their opponent. Fortunately for the Chiefs, they have two elite options to target.
Hayward will likely follow Tyreek Hill on the outside, putting Kelce in a prime position to lead this offense. Kelce has dominated the Raiders in recent outings and little has been done to prevent that from happening.
Even if the offense struggles as it has in recent weeks, Kelce should still be able to put up a big game.
Waller 75+ receiving yards and a touchdown
The Raiders, lacking playmakers, will need to continue to feed their stud tight end. Last week, when they were pushing to come back, Waller was the focal point of the passing attack. Although their drives didn’t end in touchdowns they did make it to the red zone on half their trips.
With the offense needing him and the matchup being favorable, a big week should be in store for Waller.
The combination of fearing the Chiefs and them being unreliable has us pivoting from our typical strategy this week. However, the dominant performance the tight ends have had recently gives us an angle to take.
Add in that these offenses need their top receiving threats to play well given their current state, and a big week should be in store for both.
