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Darren Waller
ATD +330 (FanDuel)
The Chiefs have given up four touchdowns to tight ends in their last three games and nine on the season, which ranks in the bottom three in the NFL. The Chiefs are also a bottom-three team in catches and tight ends allowed to slot receivers, which is where Waller lines up.
These are crazy odds. In the first four games Waller played this season, he was below +200 in each game. In the three games since he’s returned, he’s been at +260, +370 and +380. Waller scored in two of those games, against the Patriots and 49ers, but he didn’t score in an ice-cold game in Pittsburgh.
For what it’s worth, Waller did score against the Chiefs last season.
I’d also recommend Hunter Renfrow at +400 since he’s primarily a slot receiver, but I’m not sure he’s going to play enough snaps over Davante Adams and Mack Hollins to get enough looks.
Moral of the story: Attack the slot.
Pick: Darren Waller ATD (+330) |
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None
I’m not betting any Chiefs players to score touchdowns, and here’s why.
Here are the best odds available and implied probability for each key Chiefs offensive player, as of Saturday morning at 10:45 a.m. ET, which can be found here:
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | -125 | 55.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | +100 | 50% |
| Jerick McKinnon | +140 | 41.7% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | +155 | 39.2% |
| Marques Valdez-Scantling | +215 | 31.2% |
| Mecole Hardman | +270 | 27% |
| Patrick Mahomes | +350 | 22.2% |
The last time these teams played, Kelce hogged all the Chiefs touchdowns and scored four times. So, if you decided to go with a player like Smith-Schuster at +150, you have so much competition to score on this team that his implied probability should be closer to 25% instead of 40%, which would be +300.
Are the Chiefs going to score five or six touchdowns? Maybe, but you’re probably an oblivious Chiefs fan or Raiders hater if you think that. The Chiefs scored six touchdowns once this season and five touchdowns just twice.
If you think Kansas City will add to either of those totals, try to bet cautiously since there are only so many touchdowns to go around in a 60-minute game. Perhaps, look into a Chiefs touchdown total. At bet365, you can bet the Chiefs to score more than four touchdowns at +215. That way, you don’t have to pick and choose who gets the love in this powerhouse offense.
The Chiefs' touchdown total at sportsbooks like BetMGM and FanDuel is 3.5, as of Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET, but the best we can get on the over is -140. If you're going to bet that, you might as well bet Kelce at better odds.
