Most totals in Week 18 are in the low 40s, some even around 39.
Well, Chiefs vs. Raiders is 52.5, which is the highest of Week 18 by 3.5 points.
So, let's bet an under for our Chiefs vs. Raiders player prop.
Las Vegas' offense is in flux right now, moving into an era without Derek Carr. The Raiders have plenty of playmakers, headlined by Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller.
Mack Hollins has built a role for himself, though. Without Hunter Renfrow and Waller for most of the season, Hollins has had some noteworthy performances and is playing more than 85% of snaps with regularity.
So, let's fade him.
Mack Hollins
Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
If I told you before the season that entering Week 18, Hollins would be the clearcut Raiders No. 2 receiver — over Renfrow — you’d probably be a bit skeptical.
That’s the case, though. In the past three games, all of which have finally seen both active, Hollins has played more than 86% of snaps every time out, while Renfrow has gone 43%-47%-46%.
The production, though, is pretty even. Renfrow has eight catches on 14 targets for 75 yards, while Hollins has eight catches on 14 targets for 87 yards.
Pick: Mack Hollins Under 34.5 Receiving Yards |
Hollins is the bigger receiver, making him more likely to be on the field in running situations, so the similar production in the passing game makes sense despite the difference in snap count.
Against the Chiefs, we’re fading Hollins at 34.5 receiving yards, a total he’s gone under in three of the Raiders’ past five games. He has gone over it in two of the past three games, registering 40 yards in both of those games.
Hollins’ most production came with Renfrow out in the early and middle parts of the season. Since then, he’s been as low as seven receiving yards (Week 15), but only as high as 64 (Week 8).
Another X-factor here is the increased use of Foster Moreau, who has seen his snap percentage go up from 56% to 68% to 79% in the past three games. He’s seen at least two targets in each of those games.
Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s consensus projection on Action Labs for Hollins is 29.6 receiving yards, so we’ll fade him. PointsBet has the best number at 35.5 (-120), but I'll play 34.5 at FanDuel at -113. I wouldn't blame you for taking the extra yard, though.
I’d only play this one down to 33.5.
