Chiefs vs Ravens Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting coming online in 2024, you’ll be able to bet legally on the NFL at major sportsbooks. Learn more!
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week, the Chiefs showed the world they are still a postseason juggernaut by defeating the Bills yet again. We can be misguided by their offensive struggles during the regular season, but with Patrick Mahomes, all touchdown bets are live — even against the top-rated defense in the NFL.
We can start with the fact that Travis Kelce finally woke up and scored twice against Buffalo. The Bills had only allowed three TDs to tight ends all season — similar to the Ravens, who also only allowed three.
Although he hasn’t looked quite like his prime self, Kelce can still turn it on and is a matchup nightmare for any defense. Given that he’ll likely see close to 10 targets, not to mention his playoff pedigree (16 TDs in 14 playoff games from 2019-2023), there’s no shame in taking Kelce at +130.
Now, this one is likely going to have people rolling their eyes, but I love Mahomes to score. The tricky part is “guessing” when Mahomes wants to use his athleticism to make plays.
We know he can do it. He’s scored five rushing TDs in 16 career playoff games (31%), which would mean if we just used his playoff history, his odds should be closer to +250 based on implied probability. However, we’re seeing odds closer to +600 against Baltimore despite not having odds over +400 all season.
Here are two reasons why.
- The Ravens' run defense is stout and has only allowed one quarterback (Deshaun Watson) to rush for a TD this season while also giving up the fewest rushing TDs in 2023 (six). The latter is also the main reason why I’m not high on Isiah Pacheco at +135.
- Mahomes didn’t run for a TD during the regular season and he hasn’t logged a rushing score in the postseason in over two years. That being said, Mahomes led the NFL in scramble rate (running the ball on broken plays designed as a pass) and had a career high in carries this season. If I’m taking any Chiefs longshot, my list starts and ends with Mahomes at +600.
Verdict: Bet Travis Kelce (+130; bet365) and Patrick Mahomes (+650; FanDuel)
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Bet Chiefs-Ravens at Fanatics with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Baltimore Ravens
To say I’m sour that Gus Edwards didn’t score last week would be an understatement. The bruising back was the bellcow for the Ravens in the second half of the season, but it was the Lamar Jackson show against the Texans.
Jackson was clearly saving his legs for the playoffs. He hadn’t scored on the ground since Week 7 but scored twice in the divisional game, which is why picking a Ravens RB is a tough endeavor. I can make a case for nearly every RB on the team which means none really have a strong case.
If you have to choose one, however, I'd go with Justice Hill at +333. We’ve seen Hill outsnap Edwards in three of the last four games, and he will be out there for passing downs over Edwards. Josh Allen and the Bills showed everyone can run on the Chiefs. K.C. ranked 27th in DVOA against the run during the regular season and gave up almost 200 yards on the ground in the Divisional Round.
A rusher is definitely scoring for the Ravens. That’s the easy part — choosing which one is almost luck at this stage.
The best option may be to take long-shot bets like Nelson Agholor at +800 or Isaiah Likely at +400. Agholor leads the Ravens with five TDs against man coverage — the Chiefs play man at a top-five rate.
Likely could be a bit of a reach with Mark Andrews returning, but to jump from +200 to +400 seems like a bit of an overreaction, especially since we’ve seen Likely have so much success (six TDs in the last six games).
