Here are your Chiefs vs Ravens best bets in our Chiefs-Ravens AFC Championship Game preview for Sunday.
Chiefs vs Ravens Best Bets: AFC Championship Game Preview
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
| Chiefs Odds | ||
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| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
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| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
Odds are on the move in the AFC title game, with Baltimore now up to a 4.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks. That's actually good news for our Chiefs vs Ravens best bets, though, as one of our experts is on Kansas City to cover the spread in our expert picks and Chiefs vs Ravens preview.
Beyond that spread pick, we also have bets on the total and player props galore. Let's get to our Chiefs vs Ravens best bets for the AFC Championship.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Pick Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
I’m buying the trends regarding Mahomes as an underdog. Per Evan Abrams, Mahomes is 8-3 straight-up as an underdog in his career and 5-0 in games where he opened as a ‘dog of three or more points.
After opening at three, this line has shifted a full point on DraftKings to four, while most books still have it at 3.5. While it’s not a key number, the extra half-point could be significant here in what looks to be a close game.
Kansas City is peaking at the right time, looking like the vintage version of the team that’s won two of the last five Super Bowls. Thanks to the resurgence of star tight end Travis Kelce and the emergence of running back Isaiah Pacheco as a true workhorse back, they’ve averaged 26.5 points in the playoffs, even in tough weather conditions.
It should be easier going this week, giving them a chance to keep pace in a shootout and cover the spread or win outright. I want to make sure I’m getting all four points on the spread, but I’d bet that down to -120.
Pick: Chiefs +4.5 (-115)
Chiefs vs. Ravens Over/Under
The initial weather reports for this game on Sunday were suggesting rain in the forecast. Now that the current forecast (as of Tuesday) suggests no rain and just cloudy skies in Baltimore, there’s no reason this total should be below 45. Even if the Ravens are quite slow and methodical offensively, they’re going to score points on the Chiefs' defense and they are more explosive overall than Buffalo’s offense on Sunday.
The Texans sent a ton of blitzes at Jackson and while the Ravens struggled to overcome that early, the offense solved that problem and found the quick hitters to torch Houston in the second half. Jackson’s improved play against the blitz this season should give Chiefs defensive coordinator Spagnoulo pause about bringing a ton of pressure.
Jackson has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, compared to 7.8 when not blitzed. His Pro Football Focus grade is 84 against the blitz and his completion rate is 64.9%.
Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread when lined as an underdog in his career and his aura seems to be propping up the Chiefs in this matchup. You can’t throw out the data from the regular season when Kansas City took a clear step back offensively, but betting on a Mahomes offense getting to at least 20 points is something I’m more than willing to trust.
Baltimore goes up early, runs it well and Mahomes has to try to engineer a comeback against the league’s best defense. That’s a recipe for points and why I’m betting the over on Sunday.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens Total
I just can't shake the feeling that both defenses and both defensive coordinators have the advantage.
The Chiefs' offense isn't "back" just because it played Miami and Buffalo defenses with half their players in the hospital. The Ravens defense is healthy and another animal altogether — maybe the best defense Mahomes has ever faced in the playoffs.
Mike Macdonald uses creative pass rushes to put opponents under pressure, and Kansas City's interior offensive line is vulnerable with Thuney out. Mahomes has won over 90% of his games when he gets the ball out in under three seconds, but he's a mere mortal — around .500 — when he's over that. This season, the Chiefs' offense ranked just 27th when passing under pressure. Mahomes doesn't have his usual outlets and it's hard to see the Chiefs moving the ball or scoring consistently in this game.
I'm still not sold on Jackson and the passing game in this matchup — see the Chiefs section above. Maybe Baltimore dominates on the ground and finds points that way, but that only chews up the clock, shortens the game and keeps Mahomes on the sidelines, helping an under.
Chiefs games averaged 39.1 points per game this season and went under the posted 44.5 in 13-of-19 games. Ravens games averaged 44.9 points per game, right at the posted total. When Baltimore went over this number, it was almost always because it scored 31+ points. When Kansas City went over this, it's because the Chiefs scored at least 27. I don't see either of those things happening.
Still, Chiefs games have finished with 44 or fewer points in four of Mahomes' 16 playoff games, so I'll duck the full game total and play just the second half. Chiefs unders are 13-6 on the season, but their second-half unders are a ridiculous 17-2. Bettors blindly putting $100 on just Chiefs second-half unders all season would be up $1,373.
The Chiefs are allowing just 5.2 points per game in the second half. The defense has allowed more than a touchdown in only four second halves all season. It's allowed just seven points in two playoff second halves and only 26 points the past seven second halves combined — with four of those against the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills (twice). Of course, Kansas City is only scoring 6.6 points per game in the second half.
Chiefs games are going under the second-half line by 7.7 points per game this season. Keep riding what works in what might turn out to be a defensive battle.
If you're confident the Ravens win, betting Mahomes to throw an interception makes sense at -125. He threw one in 11-of-16 regular season games and he has four interceptions in his three playoff losses, versus just three in the 13 wins.
Pick: Second Half Under 22.5 (-112)
Patrick Mahomes Props
By Tony Sartori
It's always a tough proposition when placing a bet that fades this generation's best QB, but that is why we are catching such a great price on this under! Look, Mahomes is obviously on pace to be one of the all-time greats and could throw for four touchdowns and nobody would bat an eye, but he is going to be in for a tough matchup against this tremendous Baltimore defense.
This season, the Ravens ranked in the top 10 of the league in yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. Their underlying metrics are even more impressive, ranking first in expected points contributed by passing defense.
The trends are also in our favor, considering that Mahomes has thrown for one or fewer touchdowns in five of his past seven games. On the other hand, this Baltimore defense has not allowed two or more passing touchdowns in four of its past five games.
We are catching a particularly good price in Mahomes under 1.5 TD Passes at +100 via DraftKings, a number that is two-to-20 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing. I would take this line up to -105.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+100)
Lamar Jackson Props
The Ravens have dominated offensively in each of the last three games against playoff-caliber teams. Even though Kansas City is the best defense they’ve played in a month, the wins against San Francisco Miami and Houston by scoring at least 30 points in each game shows that this offense is too multiple to truly be slowed down.
You might think that the over that I laid out above and the Jackson pass yards under are inversely correlated, but the Ravens will run the ball and do it efficiently while playing from ahead as I expect them to be for most of this game on Sunday.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 213.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Oddsmakers across all major sportsbooks have listed Jackson's passing attempts prop below 30 for good reason. The Ravens are going to feature a heavy dose of the rushing attack that, which is what the Chiefs defense has struggled most to defend this season.
In the three career games in which Jackson has faced Steve Spanuolo's defense, he's averaged 78.6 rushing yards per game. After the success that the Bills had last week on the ground against the Chiefs, it'd be shocking to see the Ravens not lean heavily into the run game as four-point favorites.
The other angle to this position on Jackson's passing yards is obviously how well the Chiefs pass defense has played. K.C. limited Josh Allen to just 3.8 yards per attempt on 20 passes thrown in the second half last week. During the regular season, the Chiefs caused 18% of all passes against them to be deemed off target, which ranked eighth best in the NFL. When adjusted for sacks, this defense allowed only 4.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (fifth). Both Tua Tagovailoa and Allen attempted exactly 39 passes against the Chiefs over these last two playoff games, yet neither reached 200 passing yards, averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt.
If the rain becomes a hindrance in ball-handling on Sunday, it'll only increase the likelihood of the Ravens taking the air out of the ball. I'd bet this under down to 209.5.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 213.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Rashee Rice Props
Rice has really separated himself as the Chiefs' go-to wide receiver in the second half of the season. He's hit the over at this number in six of his last games with one of those unders coming in the Chiefs' win over the Bills, although Patrick Mahomes only threw the ball 23 times and Rice still had four targets.
The matchup isn't a great one for Rice against the Ravens, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL against both the run and pass, so the Chiefs will likely still pass the ball a decent amount.
So far in the playoffs, Rice has more targets than all other Chiefs WRs in this offense combined. While Mahomes does still throw the ball a lot to his TEs and RBs, he has shown over and over that he will look to Rice early and often, not to mention that Rice is a legit deep threat nearly every single game.
With the Chiefs being a 3.5-point 'dog and the Ravens generally getting out to early leads, the game script is setting up for Mahomes to have to throw a lot. I would hit this line all the way to 65.5.
Pick: Rashee Rice Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
