Chiefs vs Ravens Odds, Pick: AFC Championship Game Spread
Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens.
Chiefs vs Ravens Odds, Pick: AFC Championship Game Spread
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Chiefs vs Ravens odds for the AFC Championship game are on the board with the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites over the Chiefs at home for next Sunday's conference title game. The over/under opened at 46.5 total points scored between the two teams but moved down to 44.5.
Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals his initial projections for the spread and over/under based on his model.
Spread: Ravens -4.5 | Total: 44
Let's preview both sides before an expert Chiefs vs Ravens pick.
Kansas City Chiefs
It wouldn’t be an AFC Championship Game if Patrick Mahomes wasn’t in it.
Mahomes is now 1-0 on the road in his playoffs career after beating the Bills as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. It will take an impressive effort to make it 2-0 and reach yet another Super Bowl.
This hasn’t looked like your normal Chiefs team, though. Kansas City has won four straight games now, but it lost four out of six prior to that. The offense has not been as efficient as past years. Since the start of December, the Chiefs entered their win over the Bills have scored at least 27 points just once in six games, and the one time they did was 27 on the
The Chiefs are still 11-7-1 against the spread this season, but they entered the win over Buffalo as an ATM when it comes to betting unders. Kansas City was 5-13 to the over before beating the Bills.
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Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have been a juggernaut all season, and the road to the Super Bowl through the AFC was always going to go through Baltimore.
The Ravens are 12-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, including 6-4 at home. Baltimore has lost three times at home this season, though, to the Colts (Sept. 24), Browns (Nov. 12) and Steelers (Jan. 6), although the latter game saw Lamar Jackson sit since the No. 1 seed in the AFC was already clinched.
Most impressive, though, might be Baltimore’s offensive output at home this season. The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in their last seven home games this season that Jackson has started. They’ve been so dominant at home, though, that Ravens home games are only 5-4-1 to the over.
Baltimore’s last four wins have all been by double digits over the Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins and Texans. Three of those made the playoffs, and the other missed out in Week 18.
Chiefs vs Ravens Pick
By Ricky Henne
There’s a stark difference in Lamar Jackson’s record against the spread (ATS) once it hits -3.5 (or higher), which is why I jumped on Ravens -3 while I can get that number.
Jackson is 22-6 ATS when either favored by three or less or as an underdog. The Ravens went 6-1 in those games this season, with their lone loss coming in Week 18 when they rested their starters. On the other hand, Jackson’s only 22-31 over his career when favored by 3.5 or more.
Although Kansas City’s offense looked great against the Bills, it’s still a far cry from what we’ve been treated to over the years. The Chiefs will need to be perfect against a Ravens defense that allowed the fewest points in the league (16.5) and ranked first in DVOA. Unfortunately, they’re hard to trust considering they led the league in drops.
The Chiefs have had to rely on their defense, but it was troublesome to see how they fared Sunday against the run. The Bills averaged 4.7 yards per carry and gashed them for 182 yards. Buffalo boasts one of the league’s top rushing attacks, ranking seventh in both yards (130.1) and DVOA. However, that's nothing compared to the Ravens, who led the league in yards (156.5) and DVOA.
Jackson might be in for a big game, too, after watching Josh Allen carry the ball 12 times for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Jackson led all quarterbacks with 821 rushing yards this season while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He was particularly lethal in Saturday’s win over the Texans, rushing 11 times for 100 yards and a pair of scores.
Baltimore has significant advantages in key areas, and I suspect this line will creep up as the week goes along. As a result, I personally made sure to grab this before it moved off the -3 that’s been key over Jackson’s career.
Pick: Ravens -3 (-122)
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